Football analysis has reached a new era in which player particpation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
For the purpose of this exercise, I've ranked each cornerback unit by focusing primarily on each team's top-three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 73 percent of pass plays last season), while also considering the health, talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position. I also examined team's "shadowing" strategies to determine how tough each will be in a variety of areas, including clear No. 1, No. 2, left, right and slot wide receivers.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked and analyzed, I took a look at each offense's 2018 schedule and determined which wide receivers will face the easiest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
Check back throughout the season for the weekly WR/CB Matchup chart and analysis.
Upgrade: Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller
Chicago overhauled its wide receiver position this offseason, and the new crew will benefit from the league's easiest slate in 2018. The Bears will profit from one of the top-three easiest schedules against No. 1, No. 2 and left perimeter receivers. They'll face 10 units ranked 20th or worse and only two ranked better than 13th (Rams, Vikings).
Robinson's schedule is tougher in the second half, but he's a strong candidate for a hot start with Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Miami on the slate prior to Week 7.
Chicago will face the league's sixth-easiest schedule against the slot, which bodes well for second-round rookie Miller. Gabriel and Kevin White are also battling for reps in what is expected to be a pass-first offense under new coach Matt Nagy.
This should make you feel better about Robinson in the fourth round and makes Miller a more intriguing late-round flier.
Upgrade: Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook
The Jaguars will face the easiest schedule for No. 1, No. 2 and right perimeter receivers.
That's good news for this group, but the problem is that we don't actually know for sure who is going to be playing most of the snaps. Lee is all but locked in as the No. 1 after signing a four-year contract extension during the offseason. Last season, he aligned in the slot on only 13 percent of his routes, splitting the rest fairly evenly between the right and left perimeter. There are very few projected shadow scenarios on the slate and Jacksonville faces 10 cornerback units ranked in the bottom half of the league. This makes Lee look even better as a flex option, though he could start slowly against Janoris Jenkins in Week 1.
Moncrief, Cole, Westbrook and, to a lesser extent, rookie D.J. Chark are no more than late-round fliers until the depth chart takes shape, but the winner(s) of the competition stands to benefit.
Upgrade: Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon
Our Dan Graziano came away from 49ers camp with the impression that Goodwin is the team's clear No. 1 wide receiver. Though the 49ers come in third overall here, that "No. 1" distinction is important, considering that San Francisco is actually set to face the league's 11th-hardest schedule for a No. 1 wideout. On the other hand, the 49ers' schedule is eighth easiest for No. 2 receivers, second easiest on the left perimeter and 11th easiest for the right perimeter.
The good news for Goodwin is that his primary position was left perimeter receiver last season (49 percent), but with San Francisco facing several teams with a good No. 1 corner and shaky depth could cost him targets if he draws the shadow. Examples of this include perimeter duos Minnesota (Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes), Detroit (Darius Slay, Nevin Lawson), Arizona (Patrick Peterson, Bene Benwikere), NY Giants (Jenkins, Eli Apple), Tampa Bay (Brent Grimes, Carlton Davis) and Denver (Bradley Roby, Tramaine Brock). Even if Goodwin is No. 1 on the depth chart, Garcon could be the better bet in PPR.
San Francisco's slot schedule is actually slightly tougher than average, too, which ding's Trent Taylor's value slightly.
Upgrade: Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Jamison Crowder
It's a big year for 2016 first-round pick Doctson after an injury-ruined rookie season and an inefficient sophomore campaign. Fortunately, he, as well as Richardson and Crowder, will benefit from a schedule that's fourth lightest against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers and sixth easiest against the slot (Crowder's position).
Eleven of Washington's first 13 games will be against cornerback groups ranked 17th or lower, though it's worth noting that Jacksonville (second) and Tennessee (eighth) are on the slate during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-16).
Crowder is the most expensive Redskins receiver in early drafts, and this helps justify his selection in the seventh round. Doctson and Richardson are very nice values in the double-digit rounds and well worth a flier.
Upgrade: Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan
More good news for the Patriots? Crazy, I know.
Patriots wide receivers will benefit from one of the top-three easiest schedules against No. 1, No. 2 and left perimeter receivers, as well as the sixth-easiest slate for right perimeter wideouts.
Jacksonville (Week 2), Minnesota (Week 13) and Tennessee (Week 10) account for New England's only showdowns against top-10-ranked units. In fact, they'll face eight units ranked 20th or worse.
New England's schedule ranks 16th against the slot, which is why projected slot man Eric Decker isn't noted as an upgrade. Edelman -- who is suspended for four games -- will also get plenty of run inside, but he was on the perimeter for 45 percent of his routes when we last saw him in 2016.
Hogan should certainly be upgraded a bit and figures to produce WR2 numbers while Edelman is suspended, if not all season.
Here is a breakdown of which teams will face the easiest schedules for each receiver position:
Easiest slates for No. 1 WRs: Jaguars, Patriots, Bears
Easiest slates for No. 2 WRs: Bears, Jaguars, Patriots
Easiest slates for slot WRs: Cowboys, Dolphins, Titans, Colts, Giants
The Cowboys just missed the cut and have a light schedule overall. Cole Beasley is the early favorite for slot duties in Dallas, though Allen Hurns could get some run inside after aligning in the slot 78 percent of the time in Jacksonville last season. Either way, Cowboys wide receivers should be upgraded. Danny Amendola seemingly has locked down slot duties in Miami and remains a great late-round value. Taywan Taylor figures to settle into the slot once Rishard Matthews is healthy in Tennessee. Don't overlook Sterling Shepard in New York.
Easiest slates for primary left WRs: Patriots, Bears, 49ers, Rams
Easiest slates for primary right WRs: Jaguars, Browns, Falcons, Redskins