Fantasy football managers are always looking to manage risk. This is the mindset that drives us to select handcuff running backs, shun players with significant injury histories and rarely pay top draft dollar for rookies.
Those tactics are all useful, but one of the most beneficial fantasy risk-management techniques is finding players who fall into the rare high-floor, high-ceiling category.
These players are extremely likely to return enough point production value to justify their average draft position (ADP), yet have the kind of upside potential that could move them up a tier or higher at their position (i.e., a low-tier RB3 who can provide RB2 value in an upside scenario).
Let's look at some players who top the list in this important category.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz finished fifth in quarterback points last season despite missing all of three games and a portion of a fourth to a Week 14 ACL tear. If one counts the partial game he played against the Rams as a full contest, Wentz was on pace to score 346.7 points, a total that would have placed 1.2 points behind Russell Wilson for the most at that position, so he already has a proven track record of elite production.
The main element driving that production was vertical passing (vertical being aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Wentz scored the most fantasy points per game on vertical passes (9.6) and was fourth in vertical points (125.3) by virtue of ranking second in vertical touchdown passes (16) and ranking 10th in vertical yards (1,732).
Two factors could make those downfield numbers even better this season. Alshon Jeffery's per-pass totals dropped off significantly last season due in large part to battling a torn rotator cuff that since has been repaired via surgery. Mike Wallace ranked tied for 15th (12.9) in vertical yards per attempt (YPA) while playing in the mediocre Baltimore offense and thus should be a big upgrade over Torrey Smith.
Wentz also could see an upgrade in rushing production. Last season, he ran the ball 64 times for 299 yards but scored zero touchdowns. According to ESPN Stats & Information, 79 quarterbacks have rushed the ball 60 or more times in a season since 2001 (the start of their database). Only five of those field generals had zero of those rushes reach the end zone and 64 of them scored two or more touchdowns. If Wentz runs the ball as often in 2018, the odds are strong he will hit paydirt on at least a couple of occasions.
Add to all of this Wentz having a matchup schedule that ranks tied for 11th-most favorable among quarterbacks in my matchup grading points system, nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters returning after missing eight games due to an ACL/MCL tear last year, and Darren Sproles returning from and ACL tear, and it should vault Wentz into repeat contention for the No. 1 fantasy quarterback honor. That makes him a great high-floor, high-ceiling candidate given his current midtier QB1 ADP.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
There is no question as to whether Henry can shoulder a bell cow-caliber workload, as he led the nation in carries by a 58-carry margin at Alabama in 2015. His breakaway abilities are just as well-established, as last season he posted an 8.9-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given quality run blocking. That total was good enough for tied for seventh among ball carriers with 100 or more rush attempts and tied for fourth among backs with 60 or more good blocking carries.
Henry also can count on one of the best run-blocking walls in the NFL, as the Titans have placed in the top 11 in each of the past two seasons in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often a blocking wall gives its ball carriers quality run blocking.
The schedule is another factor in his favor. According to my schedule analysis, Tennessee is due to face five teams that have a green-rated rush defense (with green being a highly favorable matchup). The Titans are one of only four teams with that many green-rated rush defenses on the 2018 matchup slate, and they have only two red-rated rush defenses on the docket (with red being a very unfavorable matchup).
The only element holding Henry's value back is the presence of Dion Lewis. While Lewis did post a solid 8.3 GBYPA last season, he is a 5-foot-8, 195-pound pass-catching back who the Titans are not going to wear down via an overabundance of rushes.
This combination of dynamics points toward Henry posting a large workload and yet he is valued around the border of RB2 and RB3 in ADP. He should easily return more than that draft-day investment and could tally RB1-level points if all goes well.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Thielen turned into a workhorse wideout last season. According to my game-tape reviews, he ranked tied for sixth in overall targets (146), ninth in short pass targets (75 passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) and seventh in vertical targets (68). The extra workload didn't slow Thielen's production by as much as a step, as he ranked 13th in vertical YPA (13.4) and tied for 16th in overall YPA (9.6). Those metrics allowed Thielen to place in the top 10 among wide receivers both in vertical fantasy points scored (127.7, ranked 10th) and overall points (239.7, ranked ninth).
As impressive as the sheer volume was, what really stood out about Thielen's 2017 campaign is his incredibly consistent performance level against every competition level. He posted similar YPA marks against all grades of cornerback, from red-rated (9.6) to green-rated (10.4) to all rated cornerbacks (10.3) and even on plays when he didn't face a rated cornerback (9.0). This reliability should prove to be quite beneficial against a very favorable schedule, as Thielen's 84 matchup points ranks tied for 18th out of 96 wide receivers in my 2018 schedule analysis.
All of these traits will help make Thielen the favored target for Kirk Cousins, yet Cousins' presence also could help Thielen score more touchdowns on downfield throws. Over the past two seasons, Cousins is tied with Seattle's Russell Wilson for the most vertical touchdown passes (29).
Every element detailed here indicates Thielen is a very safe WR1 investment, yet the upside of the schedule and Cousins provide Thielen with a midtier WR1 ceiling that could turn him into a rare early-round value selection.
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
Unless a fantasy coach wants to invest something other than a late-round pick in a D/ST, the odds are the selected platoon will lack the point-scoring firepower desired at this position.
The Chargers could turn that mindset over this season. Any team with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram as bookend pass-rushers will normally post a strong sack total, as the Chargers did last season when they ranked tied for sixth in sacks (43). That number could go even higher with the addition of Uchenna Nwosu in the NFL draft, as Nwosu placed third in the Pac-12 in sacks last year (9.5) and ranked first on the USC roster in passes broken up (13) and quarterback hurries (9).
This club also has one of the best ballhawking secondaries in the NFL, as the Chargers placed tied for sixth last season in number of passes that resulted in an interception or near interception (35). This group could be even better with rookie Derwin James in the lineup, as James tallied three interceptions, 5.5 sacks, six quarterback hurries and two forced fumbles in his 27 games with the Seminoles.
That caliber of playmakers will make this a quality starting D/ST prospect, yet there is additional upside in a very advantageous schedule. The Chargers face five green-rated pass-blocking matchups in Weeks 2-12, with three of those occurring in the first six weeks. These factors give the Chargers upper-tier D/ST potential for a late-round pick in most draft rooms.