With the NFL combine now behind us and the draft less than two months away, it seems like a good time to look at the fantasy impact of incoming rookies for the 2018 season.
We don't yet know which teams these first-year players will take snaps for, so we can't lump them in with the veterans for ranking purposes right now. However, to help you begin to scout the top incoming talent, I've ranked the prospects based on my observations from their college careers and the scouting combine.
Here's a look at the best fantasy-relevant running back talent in the 2018 NFL draft pool.
Note: Each player's overall rank among rookies appears before his name.
Top fantasy rookie running backs
1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State Nittany Lions
Barkley is clearly the top fantasy prospect in the 2018 class. The former Nittany Lion combines a big frame (6-foot, 233 pounds) with exceptional speed, vision, elusiveness and receiving ability. Similar to the likes of Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and Todd Gurley in recent seasons, Barkley is expected to be an every-down workhorse who pushes for 350-plus touches each year.
If there's a knock against him, it's that Barkley tends to try to make the big play a bit too often -- 20 percent of his 2017 carries were for a loss. Though Barkley's collegiate efficiency was far from being off the charts, his elite athleticism, skill set and projected role as a heavily-used rusher, receiver and kick returner supplies him with RB1 upside right out of the gate.
At 224 pounds, Guice is a bit lighter than Barkley but still has the size and ability to operate as a three-down back at the NFL level. Guice may never be an exceptional receiver, but he's a tough, powerful runner who will do plenty of damage after initial contact -- only 13 percent of his rushes went for a loss last season. He also has good speed and elusiveness.
Guice wasn't fully healthy during his final season at LSU, but still managed five-plus yards on 43 percent of his attempts. Guice ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at the combine but came in below average in both the bench press and vertical jump.
3. Sony Michel, Georgia Bulldogs
Michel is yet another potential workhorse back with massive upside. The former Bulldog is well built at 5-foot-11, 214 pounds and is a physical, downhill runner with pretty good quickness. Michel's efficiency was outstanding in 2017. He averaged 7.9 YPC (best among running backs invited to the 2018 combine), including a second-best 2.7 after initial contact. He racked up an NCAA-best five-plus yards on 49 percent of his carries and 10-plus yards on 21 percent (second-best). He also was third overall in first-down conversions (30 percent) and carries with lost yards (only 12 percent). Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Michel forced a missed tackle once every 3.8 touches, which is best among the incoming class.
Michel is a big, tough, elusive, tackle-breaking back who can hold his own as a receiver, as well as providing quality pass-blocking.
4. Rashaad Penny, San Diego State Aztecs
When you consider his frame, abilities and production, it's hard to understand why Penny isn't generating more hype. The 22-year-old has good size at 5-foot-11, 220 pounds and is a downhill, elusive back with solid receiving skills. He's not the fastest guy in the class (4.46 40-yard dash), but that didn't stop him from averaging 7.8 yards per carry while managing 10-plus yards on 20 percent of his attempts last season.
Penny's 74 forced missed tackles and 110.2 elusive rating were tops in this year's class, according to PFF. Penny was certainly helped by a massive 5.6 yards before contact per attempt and his receiving efficiency is underwhelming. Still, he's an excellent returner, so expect him to be on the field early and often right out of the gate.
5. Ronald Jones II, USC Trojans
Jones is one of this year's most-intriguing explosive-play prospects. He's a bit undersized at a lean 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, which may limit his early-down and goal-line opportunities. That said, Jones figures to thrive in a role similar to Tevin Coleman -- or even Jamaal Charles -- in the right situation. His 2.9 average depth of target last season was the highest in this year's class. He won't turn 21 until August and is the youngest running back in this loaded class. There's a lot to love here, even if his ceiling is lower than some others.
6. Nick Chubb, Georgia Bulldogs
In a normal class, Chubb would certainly be higher than this, but his lack of production as a receiver suggests he has a lower ceiling than many of this year's top prospects. Of course, that's not enough to overlook Chubb's outstanding rushing ability. A big, tough, bruising back at 5-foot-11, 227 pounds, Chubb lacks speed (4.50 40-yard dash), but will do most of his damage between the tackles on early downs and at the goal line. Chubb crushed it at the combine, tying the position's best mark in the bench press (29 reps) and trailing only Bo Scarbrough in the broad jump (128 inches) while also finishing better than average in most categories.
Despite dealing with a knee injury, he converted 83 percent of his third-down carries last season, while going for 10-plus yards on 19 percent of his 223 attempts. Chubb's elusive rating (97.2) and forced missed tackles rate (3.9) were both top-three in the class, per PFF. Chubb protects the ball well, having fumbled just six times in his career -- none of which came in 2017. On the negative side of things, Chubb caught 18 passes as a freshman, but managed only 13 during his final three seasons combined. At the pro level, expect production similar to that of Alfred Morris or Jordan Howard.
9. Royce Freeman, Oregon Ducks
With 5,621 yards, Freeman is the all-time FBS leader in rushing. He averaged 5.9 YPC (2.3 after contact) during his four seasons with the Ducks. Freeman is a big back at 5-foot-11, 229 pounds and has pretty good speed (4.54 40-yard dash) for his frame. He showed his short-area skills by posting good times in the three-cone and short shuttle drills at the combine.
Freeman managed a first down on 30 percent of his carries last season, good for third-best in this year's class. He also went for 10-plus yards on a fourth-best 20 percent of his attempts. Freeman is unlikely to be heavily involved as a receiver in the NFL, though he did catch 79 passes during 51 games at Oregon. It's fair to wonder if 947 carries have worn Freeman down a bit, but the 22-year-old is a potential three-down back if he holds up.
12. Kerryon Johnson, Auburn Tigers
Set to turn 21 in late June, Johnson is the youngest back in this year's class not named Ronald Jones II. The former Tiger is 5-foot-11, 213 pounds. While he is without much speed, he does excel as both a pass-catcher and blocker. Johnson registered a hefty 285 carries last season but was limited to 4.9 YPC. He managed five-plus yards on 35 percent of his attempts and 10-plus yards on 11 percent, both of which are below average in this year's class. Johnson did, however, catch all but one of his 25 targets and averaged 12.8 yards after the catch (RAC). Johnson could be a three-down back in the right situation, but figures to carve out a role similar to Tevin Coleman or Bilal Powell.
21. Josh Adams, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In the hunt to become this year's version of Jordan Howard or Chris Carson, Adams belongs near the top of the list. Adams is a tall back at 6-foot-2, 213 pounds and has the longest arms in the class (33.75 inches). He runs upright and lacks agility, which will concern some scouts, but he has terrific long speed and elusiveness for his size.
Last season, Adams averaged 6.9 YPC, which included 3.1 yards after initial contact -- easily best among this year's class. Adams' 107.0 elusive rating trailed only Rashaad Penny. Adams' receiving efficiency isn't very good (7.8 YPR last season) and, as such, he managed only 41 receptions in 37 games at Notre Dame. Adams projects similar to Latavius Murray and is an intriguing late-round gem.
22. Mark Walton, Miami Hurricanes
Walton was limited to just four games last season due to an ankle injury, but 56 attempts was all he needed to show off his incredible play-making ability. The former Hurricane averaged 7.6 YPC, going for five-plus yards on 48 percent of his tries and 10-plus yards on 23 percent.
Walton's efficiency wasn't quite as dominant over a larger sample back in 2016, but his combination of big-play ability, good hands, solid pass blocking and ball protection makes him an intriguing receiving and change-of-pace prospect. Walton is a bit undersized (5-foot-10, 202 pounds), so a lack of volume figures to limit his statistical upside. Unfortunately, he didn't show well athletically at the combine and lacks breakaway speed (4.60 40-yard dash).
29. Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss Rebels
If not Josh Adams, Wilkins is your best bet at finding this year's late-round gem in the Chris Carson tradition. Set to turn 24 in July, Wilkins is one of the oldest backs in this year's class. That's certainly a concern and it means we'll need to see quick contributions in the NFL.
However, that trepidation is offset by Wilkins' terrific production. The Ole Miss product averaged 6.5 YPC last season, while converting 64 percent of his third downs and running for five-plus yards on 41 percent of his carries and 10-plus on 19 percent. His 1.6 YAC is a red flag but, per PFF, he forced a missed tackle for every 4.3 touches -- fourth-best in the class. Wilkins also caught 26 balls last season, more than everyone listed ahead of him in these rankings not named Saquon Barkley.
Wilkins (6-foot-1, 216 pounds) is a big power back with decent speed and agility. He told me at the combine that he views himself as a three-down back and is looking to finish runs and improve in pass protection. He's an interesting late-round target worth monitoring.
30. John Kelly, Tennessee Volunteers
Kelly checks in at a tough 5-foot-10, 216 pounds, but lacks speed and showed inconsistency in terms of efficiency in 2017 -- his first season with a significant workload in the FBS. He averaged 4.1 YPC, which is poor, but 2.4 came after initial contact, which is solid. He also forced one missed tackle for every 4.5 touches, sixth-best in the class. On the other hand, Kelly ranked near the basement in first-down conversions (18 percent), third-down conversions (37 percent), five-plus yard runs (30 percent) and 10-plus yard runs (11 percent). He also lost yards on 27 percent of his 189 carries, which was easily worst in the class. Kelly caught a hefty 37 passes last season yet averaged only 8.1 YPR. Kelly's efficiency was better in 2016, though on only 98 carries.
The former Volunteer showed poorly in the quickness drills at the combine, posting the position's slowest short shuttle (4.51) and second-slowest three-cone (7.13) times. Kelly's flashes of brilliance suggest there's some upside here, but his glaring production issues make for giant red flags.
31. Bo Scarbrough, Alabama Crimson Tide
Scarbrough is a big (6-foot-1, 228 pounds), bruising back who will do his damage on early downs and in short yardage, but who offers the bare minimum as a receiver. The 23-year-old has drawn comparisons to his former teammate Derrick Henry, but his much-shorter resume -- with underwhelming efficiency and some durability concerns -- makes him an inferior prospect.
Scarbrough managed only 267 carries during his three seasons with the Crimson Tide. He did a terrific job avoiding runs for losses last season (11 percent), but he lacked explosion with only 34 percent of his carries going for five-plus yards. Scarbrough forced 17 missed tackles, per PFF, and averaged 6.4 yards per reception with two drops. He did help his cause with a terrific combine. Along with big hands and long arms, his 129-inch broad jump was the best at the position, and his 40.0 vertical tied for second.
38. Akrum Wadley, Iowa Hawkeyes
Wadley is undersized at 5-foot-10, 194 pounds and projects as either a reserve or committee back in the pros. While he is a quality pass-catcher, Wadley has struggled as a blocker and hasn't translated his athletic ability into effective rushing. He was busy with 252 carries last season, but his efficiency was atrocious. He averaged just 4.4 YPC (1.8 YAC) and lost yards on 23 percent of his attempts. He struggled to generate runs of five-plus (34 percent) and 10-plus (12 percent) yards and converted an ugly 31 percent of his third-down carries.
On the plus side, Wadley's numbers were much better on 168 carries in 2016, including 2.9 YAC. Though there are obvious concerns about his rushing, Wadley was terrific as a pass-catcher in 2017, totaling 353 yards on 28 receptions (12.6 YPR). His size, abilities and resume all suggest he's headed for a role as a reserve back who specializes on passing downs and as a returner.
39. Nyheim Hines, NC State Wolfpack
Hines is an fast, explosive and elusive back who figures to do most of his damage as a pass-catcher and returner in the NFL. At 5-foot-8, 198 pounds, he simply lacks the frame to support either a three-down gig or goal-line work in the pros. Hines plays tough and did a nice job after contact last season (2.4 YAC), but he struggled to generate first downs (22 percent) or convert third downs (50 percent) and ran for a loss way too often (20 percent).
Though busy as a receiver, Hines averaged an ugly 5.9 YPR (0.3 aDOT) on 26 catches last season. That's a bit shocking considering he played wide receiver for the team in 2015-16 (63 receptions, 781 yards, 1 TD). Hines has the look of a pedestrian change-of-pace back who will see the occasional target and return opportunity.
40. Kalen Ballage, Arizona State Sun Devils
Ballage is a good athlete who showed off his big frame (6-foot-1, 228 pounds) and speed with strong showings at both the Senior Bowl and the combine. Unfortunately, a look at Ballage's efficiency at Arizona State raises major concerns about his potential effectiveness in the NFL. He averaged just 4.3 YPC (1.8 YAC) on 157 carries last season. He went for five-plus yards only 33 percent of the time and 10-plus on 10 percent, while forcing only 20 missed tackles over 177 touches. His 28.7 elusive rating, per PFF, ranked dead last among backs who attended the combine. Incredibly, Ballage accrued only 91 yards on 20 catches, with his 4.6 YPR ranking last in the class. In previous seasons, his efficiency was either about the same or even worse.
Ballage could well carve out a role as a receiver/returner in the pros, but the 22-year-old's poor tape suggests he still has a long way to go.
50. Chase Edmonds, Fordham Rams
Edmonds is a 5-foot-9, 205-pound back who made noise at the combine with position-best marks in the three-cone (6.79) and short shuttle (4.07) drills while also showing up better than average in the other drills. Edmonds is attempting to make the tough jump from an FCS school to the pros, but he's elusive and agile with serviceable wheels (4.55 40-yard dash).
56. Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Thomas is yet another undersized back (5-foot-10, 198 pounds) looking to make the jump from the FCS. He's a former five-star high school recruit with decent speed (4.56 40-yard dash) and elusiveness. Thomas wasn't used a ton as a receiver at Auburn (2014-15) or at Jacksonville State (2016-17), but did show well on tape in the area, with a career 11.9 YPR. He's a likely change-of-pace back in the pros.
57. Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan Broncos
Franklin is a big (5-foot-11, 225 pounds), power back who figures to be an asset in short yardage in the NFL. He doesn't offer a ton athletically, however, posting a 4.63 40-yard dash, 30-inch vertical and 109-inch broad jump at the combine -- all of which were among the worst at the position. Franklin was average across the board in terms of efficiency on 235 carries last year and was targeted only seven times.
58. Darrel Williams, LSU Tigers
Williams is a big (6-foot, 229 pounds), power back with decent receiving skills, but one who had a hard time seeing the field during his time at LSU. He posted ugly performances in both the 40-yard dash (4.72) and broad jump (109 inches) at the combine -- and was otherwise ordinary. He needs to show improvement after contact (1.8 YAC last year) but has a three-down skill set and could potentially land a backup job.
59. Boston Scott, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Scott wasn't invited to the NFL combine, likely as the result of his 5-foot-6, 203-pound frame. He may be small, but he makes up for it with terrific quickness, elusiveness and post-contact production. Scott averaged 2.9 YAC last year, which trailed only Josh Adams among those backs who were at the combine. Per PFF, his 101.6 elusive rating and his average of one forced missed tackle for every 3.9 touches both ranked third in the group. Scott is also a capable pass-catcher, so his effectiveness as a rusher and overall versatility makes him an intriguing sleeper.
60. Justin Jackson, Northwestern Wildcats
Jackson improved his stock at the combine by posting a 38.5-inch vertical jump (fourth-best at the position), a 6.81 three-cone (second), a 4.07 short shuttle (tied for first), and a 11.06 60-yard shuttle (first). Despite the impressive athleticism, Jackson came in at 6-foot, 193 pounds, which suggests he'll have a very hard time generating more than committee work in the pros. Jackson racked up 287 carries and 58 targets last year, but his efficiency was poor.
74. Phillip Lindsay, Colorado Buffaloes
Lindsay is one of the oldest (he turns 24 in July) and smallest backs (5-foot-8, 190 pounds) in this year's class, which may explain why he was snubbed by the combine. Despite the shortcomings, Lindsay is a capable three-down back with solid rushing, good receiving and decent pass-blocking ability. He carried the ball 301 times last season, which is more than any back who attended the combine. He's a potential Day 3 pick to monitor.
75. Ito Smith, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Smith is 5-foot-9, 194 pounds and, though he wasn't invited to the combine, figures to attract teams looking for a shifty and explosive scat back who can help out as a pass catcher. Smith averaged 5.7 YPC on 248 carries last year, despite being allowed a dismal 1.1 yards before contact per attempt. He didn't drop any of his 57 targets.
79. Justin Crawford, West Virginia Mountaineers
Crawford is a pretty good athlete with decent quickness on tape, but he lacks strength, managing only a position-worst 11 bench-press reps at the combine. He also comes up short in speed (4.64 40-yard dash) and size (5-foot-11, 202 pounds). On the plus side, Crawford lost yards on only 9 percent of his carries last season, which was the best rate among backs at the combine. However, he also struggled badly after contact (1.4 YAC).