With the NFL combine now behind us and the draft under two months away, it seems like a good time to look at the fantasy impact of incoming rookies for the 2018 season.
We don't yet know which teams these first-year players will take snaps for, so we can't lump them in with the veterans for ranking purposes right now. However, to help you begin to scout the top incoming talent, I've ranked the prospects based on my observations from their college careers and the combine.
Here's a look at the best fantasy-relevant quarterback talent in the 2018 NFL draft pool.
Note: Each player's overall rank among rookies appears before his name.
Top fantasy rookie quarterbacks
17. Sam Darnold, USC Trojans
Darnold has just about everything you want in a quarterback. He's big (6-foot-3, 221 pounds), has a good arm and has terrific accuracy. The big concern is turnovers. Darnold fumbled the ball 12 times and threw 13 interceptions in 14 games last season. He's been picked off 20 times during his past 20 games.
Darnold is otherwise an efficient passer and can make every NFL throw, but he'll need to drastically cut down on mistakes at the pro level. He is primarily a pocket passer, but will add a bit with his legs, as well. He has the highest floor and ceiling in the 2018 quarterback class, which is why he barely gets the nod over Baker Mayfield.
18. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Sooners
If you like statistical efficiency, Mayfield is your dude. During his final season at Oklahoma, he completed 71 percent of his passes, averaged 11.5 yards per attempt, converted a first down on 45 percent of his throws and posted a 198.9 QB rating and a 92.6 total QBR. All were highest among quarterbacks who attended the combine. Mayfield also recorded an incredible 43-6 TD-INT rate, and despite going downfield plenty (averaged 10.7 yards in depth of throw), he was off target on only 8.9 percent of his attempts.
The knocks on Mayfield are that he's undersized at 6-foot-1 and that he benefited from playing in a spread system. Of course, even if you normalize Mayfield's production, he's still through the roof as a prospect. Mayfield turns 23 a few weeks before the draft, so he should be polished and ready to make a quick impact with his arm and legs at the NFL level.
19. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals
Jackson is perhaps the most polarizing player in the 2018 NFL draft. Some feel he is headed down a Michael Vick or Kordell Stewart career path, whereas others feel he should convert to wide receiver. A look at his FBS efficiency suggests Jackson shouldn't even be considering the latter. During his final two seasons at Louisville, Jackson threw for 57 touchdowns, ran for 39 more and was intercepted 19 times. He completed an underwhelming 59 percent of his passes in 2017, but posted a fairly hefty 10.5 average depth of target and was off target on only 9.7 percent of his throws, which is a pinch better than average among this year's top quarterback prospects. Jackson also faced pressure on 37.9 percent of his career dropbacks, which is fifth highest at the position since 2011.
Where Jackson really shines is in the running game. He totaled an absolutely absurd 4,132 yards and 50 touchdowns on 655 carries during 38 games at Louisville. Jackson's NFL completion percentage may hover a bit below 60 percent, but his accuracy issues are overstated, and he more than makes up for missed throws with his incredible speed, athleticism and rushing ability. His reliance on his legs and slight build (6-foot-2, 216 pounds) raises obvious questions about his durability, but the upside here is massive, especially in fantasy.
20. Josh Rosen, UCLA Bruins
Rosen has ideal size (6-foot-4, 226 pounds) with good accuracy and serviceable arm strength. He's not particularly mobile (minus-154 career rushing yards, including sacks) and struggled connecting on deep balls during his time with the Bruins. Rosen is a conservative passer (8.1 aDOT last season), so his 26 interceptions in 30 career starts is a bit concerning. He'll need to improve his decision making in the NFL, but has one of the highest floors in the class and a decent ceiling. Appropriate or not, concerns about his character may knock him down a few spots in the draft, but he's unlikely to make it out of the top 10.
41. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Rudolph is the most-efficient quarterback in this year's class not named Baker. The Oklahoma State product completed 65 percent of his passes (fifth best among combine invites), averaged 10.0 yards per attempt (second), converted a first down on 43 percent of his throws (second) and was off target on 9.0 percent of his throws (sixth), despite a massive 11.3 aDOT (second). His QB rating was 170.6 (second) and his total QBR was 84.9 (third).
Rudolph is a pocket passer who adds almost nothing with his legs. He sports exceptional size (6-foot-5, 235 pounds) and accuracy, which should offset underwhelming arm strength and small hands (9 1/8-inch hands were smallest among combine quarterbacks).
47. Josh Allen, Wyoming Cowboys
Every so often, a new face of the silly "tape vs. analytics" debate emerges. Allen has become that face during the 2018 draft season. Allen sports ideal size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) and has elite arm strength, which checks two of the most important boxes for many scouts. Unfortunately, his accuracy is about as poor as you'll find for a top quarterback prospect.
Allen was off target on 16.3 percent of his throws last season, which is worst among all top quarterback prospects in recent years (DeShone Kizer is next closest at 14.5 percent). He completed only 56 percent of his passes and averaged 6.7 YPA in 2017, both of which are woeful. Allen can hit the occasional big throw and certainly suffered as the result of a shaky supporting cast and a lot of pressure, but those excuses only extend so far. The fact is, his accuracy is historically poor, and his lack of touch and shaky decision making raises major red flags as to his NFL projection.
I spoke to Allen at the combine, and he said he's "as accurate as anyone" when he uses proper footwork, something he's working on with former NFL QB Jordan Palmer. I also spoke to one NFL head coach who said he still has work to do on Allen, but that his collegiate production was a concern when you consider the level of competition in the Mountain West conference. Allen has drawn comparisons to Jake Locker, and this situation feels alarmingly similar to the Christian Hackenberg debate from a few years back.
Allen threw well at the combine and was outstanding in drills, so despite his issues, he's a good bet to come off the board early in the first round of April's draft.
70. Kyle Lauletta, Richmond Spiders
Lauletta is 6-foot-3, 222 pounds with good accuracy, but shaky arm strength. He stood out at the Senior Bowl and improved his stock even further with a terrific showing in combine drills.
71. Mike White, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
White is a former pitcher with terrific size (6-foot-5, 224 pounds) and a huge arm. He showed decent accuracy in college but struggled in the pocket, taking 44 sacks last season and fumbling eight times.
80. Luke Falk, Washington State Cougars
Falk is a pocket passer who put up big FBS numbers but was super conservative (6.7 aDOT last year was lowest in this class) and struggled with efficiency. He's tall (6-foot-4), but his major struggles with accuracy during combine passing drills are a big concern.