Antonio Brown is currently the consensus choice for the top overall fantasy football pick, according to the average draft position in ESPN fantasy leagues.
As great as Brown is, some fantasy owners may decide that they just can't bring themselves to draft a wide receiver with the top overall pick in a standard (non-PPR) format. I've heard from some of you already, so it got me to thinking ...
Who is a good alternative for those owners?
Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley are the top two running backs in our staff rankings, but I think our No. 3 back should also come to mind: Ezekiel Elliott.
There are those who would say that rookies are too risky to take a chance on with the first-overall selection. The retort to this is that Elliott is a special player in what could be an incredibly favorable situation. In fact, the volume of reasons pointing toward Elliott having a dominant freshman pro campaign should override any trepidation about drafting a rookie.
The Cowboys' penchant for operating a bell-cow backfield
The Dallas Cowboys have a history of wanting their backs to carry large workloads. During the past decade, they pushed Julius Jones and Marion Barber very close to that level, tried to get Felix Jones to do so, and then leaned on DeMarco Murray to the point that he posted 392 carries in 2014, a total that is tied for the seventh-highest single-season mark in NFL history. The Cowboys may have Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris on their roster, but if Elliott proves capable of being a bell cow, the team will relegate those two to low-volume backup roles.
A bell-cow history
Elliott's track record at Ohio State indicates he can carry whatever workload the Cowboys have in mind for him. Elliott ranked second in rush attempts among Power 5 conference backs over the past two seasons (562). He also placed second in rushing attempts per game among Power 5 backs who played 25 or more games (20.1). Elliott's workload distribution was just as impressive, as his 16 games with 20 or more rushes during the past two seasons ranked third among Power 5 backs.
Elite goal-line production
Some teams try to limit the wear and tear on their high-volume backs by taking them out near the goal line. The Cowboys almost certainly will not be tempted to do this given how strong of a drive finisher Elliott was the past two years.
He placed third among Power 5 backs in touchdowns scored from plays starting at or inside the 5-yard line the past two seasons (18). Elliott also ranked second in touchdown percentage among players with 30 or more carries of that nature (51.4 percent). These trends will assure the Cowboys are extra-motivated to keep Elliott in the lineup for these all-important plays.
Upper-tier receiving totals
Elliott also has a proven track record in the passing game. His 55 receptions over the past two seasons were tied for 18th among Power 5 running backs. Scouts, Inc. gave Elliott a "1" rating (its best mark) in the passing-game grade in part because he, "has elite toughness and aggressiveness as a blocker." These factors will give the Dallas coaching staff confidence to keep Elliott in the game in passing situations.
Premium run blocking
The Cowboys contended for the title of worst vertical passing game in the NFL last season. The Cowboys had the lowest yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (9.0 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield, if penalty plays such as pass interference and illegal contact are included). In addition, they had a 5.3 percent bad decision rate (BDR) on vertical throws. BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team, and this mark was tied for last at that route depth level.
These numbers illustrate why defenses had zero reason to fear the Cowboys' downfield passing game and could therefore concentrate on keeping the ground attack in check.
One might expect this to result in terrible run blocking, but Dallas still ended the season with a 39.8 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers quality run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). This rate placed eighth in the league, which is incredible given the aforementioned vertical pass circumstances.
This means it won't matter what the state of the Cowboys' offense is this season. Elliott will get plenty of run-blocking help.
Return of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant
The vertical pass production should turn around dramatically with the Romo-Bryant tandem working together again.
These two were among the downfield passing elites in 2014. Bryant ended that campaign ranked 14th in vertical YPA (13.6) and 11th in stretch vertical YPA (18.6 on targets thrown 20 or more yards downfield). These helped Romo to place fifth in both vertical YPA (12.8) and stretch vertical YPA (16.3). As long as Bryant and Romo stay healthy, this part of the Dallas attack should be back in order and assist in both opening up rushing lanes and setting up drives that end in goal-line rushing attempts.
Question marks for other elite running backs
Elliott also has the advantage of being in what might be the most stable situation among the elite fantasy running backs. Devonta Freeman, last season's top scorer at this position, could end up in a split-carry backfield. Adrian Peterson is 31 years old and has 2,381 rush attempts on his frame -- facts that mean he could hit the age wall at any time. Todd Gurley is the best breakaway back in the league, but the Rams ranked 31st in points per drive (1.3) and 29th in points per game (17.5) last season, totals that aren't likely to change with their question mark at quarterback.
Bottom line
Given the favorable elements for Elliott, he has a chance of putting up No. 1-overall-RB-caliber numbers. Over the past five years, that scoring pace has equated to an average of 277 fantasy points. Even if Elliott isn't able to reach that lofty ceiling -- if he comes within, say, 40 points -- he'll post fantasy numbers that are in the range of the 243 points Antonio Brown posted last season and the 242 points Brown's projected to post this season. So if you're one of those owners gun-shy about taking a wideout to kick off your draft, these numbers would justify Elliott as a legitimate option.