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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my new weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
There are no NBA games on Dec. 24, which limits the vast majority of teams to fewer than four games. There are 26 teams with three games this week, a whopping number, with two teams playing four times and two teams playing only twice. This unique schedule compresses the Forecaster rankings toward the median, with a small number of teams at each scoring extreme and the vast majority in the middle.
The Los Angeles Lakers scored a perfect 10 on the Forecaster with four games, the only team to score more than an 8. The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors scored 8s with three games apiece. The Portland Trail Blazers also have four games this week, but their schedule includes two games against the Warriors, a game at the Utah Jazz, and a game against the Philadelphia 76ers on the back half of a back-to-back. That's a gauntlet for any team, and was enough to bring their score down to 7 despite their higher volume of games.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Memphis Grizzlies scored the minimum of 1 on the Forecaster with only two games. The Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls scored 3s with three games apiece. The Indiana Pacers scored 3s but have only two games, which makes it difficult to depend on their players. How difficult? Check out my weekly player rankings to see which players from these teams may be worth sitting this week.