If you break down daily fantasy basketball (DFS) into its simplest form, it's a game of opportunity.
The goal for everyone who plays is to maximize their allotted salary dollars by coming up with a roster of players who have many chances to accumulate stats.
What makes it fun is also what makes it challenging; there is no one right or wrong approach, here. Everyone has to find their own way.
For example, rostering high-minute players who are on the court much of the game might seem like a great idea until you realize that many of those players come with a high salary and some have a low usage rate and barely see the ball. It's not uncommon for a "3 and D" specialist to play 32 minutes and finish with seven points on 3-of-7 shooting with four rebounds, a block and a steal -- just one example of why you need to dig deeper than simply going after high-minute players.
Or it might seem to make sense to load up on players who score a lot of points, until you realize that often times high scorers come at a premium price tag without contributing much in other areas like assists and steals. If you have to pay a lot for someone and he scores 27 points but finishes with three assists and one steal, that player failed to reach his expected salary value.
These are just a few of examples.
It's up to you to learn as you go and adjust your strategy based on the slate of NBA games on a given night. Some nights, when there are only a few games, there might be a point guard like Russell Westbrook who seems like a must-play due to the lack of other options at the position. On other nights, when more games being played, Westbrook will be just one of a dozen or more quality options at the position.
Is NBA DFS simple? No. Is it challenging? You bet it is. But that's the draw -- coming up with strategies, concepts and approaches, based on the matchups and available options, that can lead to a successful night with money in your pocket.
Whether you're playing in GPPs (big tournaments with thousands of entries) or cash games (a smaller group of people with a much better chance of you winning), here are 10 tips -- plus one key bonus tip! -- that will help you have success in NBA DFS and take your lineup-building to the next level:
1. Minutes per game
As I mentioned above, you can't expect this to be the be-all end-all factor when making your lineup decisions, but it matters. More time on the court means added opportunity to accumulate stats, so this is a good starting point.
Here are the minutes-per-game leaders from last season.
You want players who can be counted on to play more than 30 minutes per game, whenever possible. That means players like John Wall, Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler, just to name a few. Keep in mind, any starter without a suitable backup is often forced to carry a bigger workload, and more minutes mean more opportunity.
It's also important to consider whether a game has a good chance of being a blowout. A simple review of the day's point spreads (ESPN PickCenter for Insider subscribers) can help with that. If a game gets out of hand, it increases the chances that the best players will spend more time than usual on the bench. This was a problem in Golden State the past two seasons, when the Warriors pulled out to big leads and often went to their bench for the entire fourth quarter. Keep that in mind any time you pay up for someone like Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry on a night when the Warriors are heavy favorites.
It's also important to know which coaches have a tendency to keep their starters on the court, even when the score is lopsided. Coach Tom Thibodeau was famous for that in his years in Chicago, leaving Butler (and Luol Deng) in the game even when the contest was well in hand. Thibs and Butler are now reunited in Minnesota, so you can count on another heavy workload out of one of the game's best two-way players.
2. Usage rate
So you know that finding players who play a good portion of the game is important, but how often do they have the ball in their hands while they're on the court? How often do they "use" a possession? That's what usage rate can help you figure out, and it's a very useful tool in DFS.
Here are the usage rate leaders from last season.
As you can see, players like Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins and James Harden are not only high-minute players but also high-usage players. Therefore, it's easy to understand why they are able to put up such big DFS numbers on a nightly basis. Others, like Kemba Walker and Dennis Schroder, don't get as much fanfare, but their high usage rate gives them the potential for monster statistical games on any given night.
Usage rate is something to strongly consider whenever you enter lineups. It's that important. You can also utilize nbawowy.com to see how a player's usage rate fluctuates when other players are on or off the court. This is incredibly useful, particularly whenever a key player is injured and you want to find out something like how Blake Griffin fared last season when Chris Paul was off the court -- a reality he now faces on a permanent basis.
This is a site to use throughout the season any time a player has to miss a game, and thus, impacts the court time and performance of his teammates.
3. Pace factor
This stat measures the amount of possessions each team uses per game. Last season, the Brooklyn Nets led the NBA (103.6) while the Utah Jazz ranked last (93.6) for the third year in a row under coach Quin Snyder. Either style can win NBA games, but as far as you're concerned, you want players on teams that consistently play more possessions.
We're talking about the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.
So what happens when a faster-paced team like the Nets plays a slower-paced team like the Jazz? Typically, things average out, so in the example from last season, you could expect right around 98 possessions to be used by each team in a Nets-Jazz game.
That adds a little value to the Jazz players, who can be expected to play around five more possessions than usual, and it also slightly downgrades the Nets players, who can be expected to play around five fewer possessions than usual.
4. Opponent defense versus position
As good as a player might be (high minutes, high usage, fast-paced team), he might not be worth rostering if he's matched up against a top-notch defender like San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard. This is always something to take into consideration.
There are several websites that show how well each team defends at every position, and it's up to you to find the one that works best for you. One example, 82games.com, shows important stats for every team such as their opponent's effective field goal percentage at each position. The Miami Heat, for example, held opposing point guards to a 46.2 eFG% last season and have Goran Dragic for another season, so that's a team you probably shouldn't have started point guards against on any night with a full slate of games.
5. Injuries equal opportunities
Any time a starter gets injured and misses time, figure out which reserve(s) will fill in for them and take on a bigger role, because there is no better time to find a bargain in DFS.
Salaries don't fluctuate much on a game-to-game basis, so when a low-priced reserve is thrust into a starter's role, he often remains a top value for several weeks before his price comes up. It's up to you to capitalize on this as much as possible. Remember the way Seth Curry came out of nowhere when the Mavericks were shorthanded in the backcourt last season? He was available at a low salary for weeks, and that's exactly what we're talking about here.
I recall a game a few seasons back when Brooklyn faced San Antonio and Kevin Garnett sat out, giving Mirza Teletovic a chance to play extended minutes in the Nets' shorthanded frontcourt. That night, Teletovic went off for 26 points, 15 rebounds and had five 3-pointers, despite being near the minimum price point, and anyone who rostered him had a huge advantage over the competition in GPPs.
Injuries are a reality in the six-month grind of the NBA's grueling regular season, and there are sure to be many again in 2017-18. In DFS, look at that as an opportunity -- there's that word again -- to go bargain shopping.
6. Pay up at the right positions
A couple of years back, this fascinating piece by Bryan Mears examined the top-scoring nightly NBA DFS lineups through the first few months of the 2014-15 season. The findings were both fascinating and revealing.
In a nutshell, the sheer number of high-quality point guards currently in the league make it advisable to pay up for point guards on most nights. From time to time, values will be out there, but you always have to measure whether a low-priced point guard with a ceiling of 30 points is worth rostering over a high-priced point guard who might put up twice that. Most of the time, it isn't.
On many nights, it's also advisable to roster a cheaper option at shooting guard and/or small forward. The lack of depth at those positions in the NBA leaves many nights when the top-priced small forward is someone like Trevor Ariza, and it often makes sense to go cheap there so you can load up elsewhere.
Power forward is pretty top-heavy in terms of elite options, while center can range from thin to deep depending on the night's schedule.
7. Consider ownership percentage and pick your spots to be a contrarian
Going against the grain can be your ticket to big winnings in GPPs, but you have to be smart about when you apply it.
Fading a superstar who ends up having an uncharacteristically poor performance -- say Durant or LeBron James -- can give you a leg up on the competition, but only if it's on a night when their ownership levels are high.
Some nights, it's very difficult to roster James and Durant, and the contrarian play might actually be to add both to your roster.
One of my favorite approaches is to play the late-night GPPs that include only 2-4 games on the NBA schedule. Many DFS regulars shy away from these contests because less skill is required since there are fewer choices at every position -- leading to many duplicate rosters -- but there is no better time to be a contrarian than in these late-night tourneys.
One of my biggest cashes from the 2014-15 season came when I faded Harden despite him being one of only two or three shooting guards who appeared to be worth rostering. It was the last night before the All-Star break, Harden's ownership was well north of 80 percent, and he shot just 3-for-12 from the field (0-for-7 from 3-point range) and finished with only nine points. It was one of only two games all season when he failed to reach double digits, and it left me well ahead of everyone else who rostered him. Boom!
8. Factor in back-to-backs
Some players aren't impacted much when they play the second game of a back to back. Others see their shooting percentage and scoring average take a big dive. And some veterans are all but restricted from playing in the second game of back to backs.
Isaiah Thomas is a good example of a player whose performance last season was heavily impacted by the amount of rest he had entering the game. He actually played best when he was on the second of a back to back, averaging 32.7 points and shooting 47.7 in 16 of those contests. On the flip side, in the six games when he came in with more than three days' rest, he shot just 44.3 percent and averaged 24.7 points.
Weird, huh?
Make sure you spend a moment and think about how much rest a player has before you roster him. It affects every player differently (some a little, some a lot), and it matters in DFS.
9. Ride the hot hand (or the cold hand)
Certain players are more streaky than others, and at times, a situation arises when a player steps up into a larger role. The bottom line here is that you should always be aware of the players who are running hot or cold.
Players who are in a groove can provide a big boost to your roster, particularly while their price tag remains low. Who could forget when Cole Aldrich was the bargain center to have while with the New York Knicks a few years ago? If you can find players like this who have the hot hand, you can construct a roster of expensive stars with a high ceiling and an overachieving low-priced role player.
Cold players can make a great contrarian play if you believe that there is a reason (matchups, injuries to others, role changes) for them to bust out and perform to their normal level. If you time it right and roster someone on a night when he busts out of his funk, it can separate you from the pack because he will likely be on very few rosters.
10. Utilize Twitter for late injury/lineup changes
There are several sites out there that report updates on players in the hours leading up to tipoff each night, but the best thing you can do is find a good Twitter list of NBA reporters and bloggers.
Here is a good one that I created during the 2014-15 season which includes more than 200 NBA reporters, bloggers and analysts.
Don't be the person stuck with a player who was a late scratch due to flu-like symptoms. That's as good as throwing money away.
Bonus tip No. 11: Chase overtime
I haven't seen anyone mention this strategy, and it might seem like a sucker bet, but when it works, it's a game-changer. Interested? If you prefer GPPs over cash games and are OK with an all-or-nothing approach, then keep reading.
Here's the deal -- games that go into overtime provide an extra five minutes of game time, and typically all of those minutes are taken up by starters or key reserves like Will Barton or Jamal Crawford, who regularly finish the game on the court. That's a big deal in GPPs, where every stat matters, and you can take advantage of this. All it takes is some research and a little luck.
What you need to do is find games with close point spreads that feature two high-scoring teams that play at a high pace. Some nights, there are none of these games, but most nights there is at least one, if not more. Remember, you aren't just looking for high-scoring games, you're looking for high-scoring close games that have the best chance of going into OT. With that in mind, I like to limit myself to games with a point spread under three points, since those are the games Vegas expects to be close.
Once you've found a game that fits this description, the next step is to stack as many players as you can from the two teams. On FanDuel, for example, you can load up eight of your nine roster spots, since there's a limit of four players from one team. If this game goes to overtime, there's a good chance it's going to be a fun night at your house.
There you have it: 11 tips and winning strategies to help you improve your odds in NBA DFS action this season. Apply as many of these as you can on a nightly basis, and it's only a matter of time before you experience the thrill of success.