Whether it's a potential trade or a waiver-wire claim you are mulling, the short- or long-term expectations for a specific player or anything else that is on your mind when it comes to fantasy hoops, I'll help you out each Thursday with my Twitter mailbag Q&A.
If you have a question, tweet me @AtomicHarpua or with #FBAMailbag before Thursday morning each week, and I'll cull some of the better ones to answer here.
@AtomicHarpua What do you prefer in fantasy playoffs: Very good players playing in a lot of games or elite players with smaller schedules?
- RICK LA FLAME (@RichardsNotRich) February 24, 2016
I've had several similar questions this week regarding how to approach games played down the stretch in head-to-head leagues, so let's dig into this a bit.
The trade deadline in standard ESPN leagues was Jan. 24, but for those who have customized their leagues with a later deadline, there remains time to acquire impact players for the stretch run. And even if your trade deadline has passed, you can work the waiver wire with games played in mind.
In both cases, we can take a look at the specifics of who has good and bad schedules the rest of the way.
To begin with, three teams have a five-game week on their schedule: the Toronto Raptors in Week 21, and the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls in Week 23. Players on those teams will give you an extra punch in those weeks, but their overall schedules vary quite a bit.
The Bulls and Raptors have at least four games (including that five-gamer) in all but one of the final four full weeks. However, even though the Nets play four games next week and five in Week 23, they have no more than three games in any other week, so take their bonus week with a grain of salt.
The Boston Celtics (Week 20) and Los Angeles Lakers (Week 21) are the only teams with a two-game week left on their schedules, and they have just two four-game weeks remaining.
The friendliest schedules for the final month (Weeks 21-25; when standard ESPN playoffs run) include the Golden State Warriors (four games in Weeks 21-24, though just one game in Week 25), and the Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and Washington Wizards (each of whom have three four-game weeks in the playoffs), plus the aforementioned Bulls and Raptors. Of note: The Nuggets play just once in the final abbreviated week.
The lightest schedules include the Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks -- they all have just one four-game week during the fantasy playoffs -- plus the Nets. The Knicks also play just once in Week 25.
Back to your specific question about whether I want elite players with lighter schedules or second-tier guys with heavy schedules. Generally speaking, I would lean toward the second-tier options with more games on their plates, because it gives them more chances to make noise and helps alleviate some statistical variance we see in the form of bad outings, even from elite players.
Specifically, though, you can do the math. Be it in a points or roto system, you can take the stats you expect from two players in a potential trade, multiply them by the games remaining and get a decent idea of whether one will outperform the other -- or at least hold similar value.
@AtomicHarpua @ESPNFantasy I decided to drop Otto Porter in a standard 9 cat head to head. Scooped up Myles Turner....thoughts?
- Matty p (@MattyPasterczyk) February 25, 2016
I think you made the right call there. With Bradley Beal back to form and Markieff Morris in the mix, I don't see much upside in Otto Porter Jr. going forward this season. He should maintain some level of value by chipping in some 3s and steals to go with a healthy field goal percentage, but not enough to make much noise in standard leagues.
Myles Turner, on the other hand, is being leaned on heavily and responding well. He has taken double-digit shots in 15 of his past 17 games, as of press time, and is coming off of a 24-point game against the Knicks on Wednesday. He is pure upside, and I expect him to keep rolling.
@AtomicHarpua reggie jacksons a keeper right? 10 category , 8 team , 5 keeper auction league
- Joe Mac (@mackmane83) February 25, 2016
Reggie Jackson would probably be a borderline keeper in an eight-team league with five keepers. It really depends on what your other options are.
He definitely is a keeper in the sense that he is a player who has a starting point guard gig locked up for the foreseeable future and is about to enter his prime years while playing in a system that plays to his strengths.
However, he doesn't do anything particularly well in the box score. Yes, he scores and sports an excellent free throw percentage, but he is light on the things we really need from the point guard position: assists, steals and 3s.
That's why it depends on to whom you are comparing him. I'd keep him over a middling veteran who has little upside and is pushing into his 30s, but I'd fade him if you have a young wild-card player who you think may pay off huge in a couple of years.
@AtomicHarpua would you drop Matt Barnes for shelvin Mack?
- Young Hank Moody (@KeithKill) February 24, 2016
I think Matt Barnes is more likely to maintain fantasy value in the coming weeks, with Marc Gasol and Jeff Green out of the picture, and I like his overall game better than what Shelvin Mack may have to offer.
That said, if you are desperate for point guard production, dropping Barnes to see if you get lucky with Mack makes sense.
@AtomicHarpua @ESPNFantasy LeBron for Leonard/Aldridge in a Head to Head Points league - which side do you want?
- Kevin Cherney (@kjcwarriors93) February 18, 2016
LeBron James for Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge is a very interesting trade offer. James has a slightly friendlier schedule the rest of the way and I typically prefer landing the best player in a two-for-one swap.
On the other hand, that pair of efficient Spurs carries a lot of impact in points leagues -- plus, I have Leonard (No. 6) as the better fantasy player over James (No. 8) the rest of the season.
The state of the rosters for the teams involved could play a significant role in whether it makes sense for either side to pull the trigger on this deal; but in a bubble, give me the Leonard/Aldridge side. There is just too much combined upside available between them to pass up.