As usual, let's look at three players that look a little different than what we thought they'd be and ask: Is this sustainable? Or, if the pattern is bad: Is this reversible?
What's up?
As the once high-powered Atlanta offense has continued to sputter, Korver keeps popping up on most-dropped lists even though he's having his best shooting month.
Why is this happening?
After two uncharacteristic months, it seemed only a matter of time before Korver's shooting would regress to career levels. Indeed, it has. Korver has hit 21-of-44 from deep in February (47.7 percent) and posted a true shooting percentage of .649. That's more in line with his late-career-breakout numbers of the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Korver's scoring average this month (10.6) is still below his averages of the three previous seasons and his 2015-16 PPG remains in single digits.
Is this a thing?
Korver continues to play big minutes but the looks just haven't been there. Teams have really focused on running him off the 3-point line. As a result, he's done more damage inside the arc on jumpers. This is a crucial hit to the efficiency of a low-volume player like Korver. He's also not getting to the line as much. Part of that might be due to physical issues earlier this season, but more and more it's because of Atlanta's struggles at the team level. Korver has long been one of the best free throw shooters in the league and an ace when it comes to closing out wins with game-icing foul shots. But Atlanta hasn't been ahead late in games much during the past few weeks. As a result, Korver has taken just five free throws during the entire month of February.
Verdict?
Clearly, Korver is a player at his best in a high-functioning offense. It was no coincidence that his best season (2014-15) happened when the Hawks became the Eastern Conference version of the Spurs. That Hawks attack has crash landed. While it's heartening to see Korver making more of the looks he gets lately, overall things seem to be getting worse for Atlanta, not better. As the team goes, so shall it go for Korver.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
What's up?
We might not yet want to declare that the Greek Freak has made the Greek Leap, but let's just say that Olympus is rumbling. Antetokounmpo is averaging 18.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists in February, while getting to the line six times per game and shooting 49.1 percent from the floor. According to basketball-reference.com, his average game score (15.2) places him 35th of the 410 players to see action this month.
Why is this happening?
Antekounmpo's minutes have increased each month this season, but that only partially explains his increased production. And on a per-minute basis, he's not really getting more touches. It's the nature of those touches that has evolved. According to SportVu data from NBA.com, Antetokounmpo's average time of possession per touch during the 2015 portion of this season was 2.38 seconds. Since the calendar flipped, that figure has gone to 2.68.
That's significant, because it reflects new responsibilities for Antetokounmpo within Milwaukee's offense. He hasn't become a ball-stopper by any means, but he has been asked to become more of a playmaker with point guard Michael Carter-Williams shuffling in and out of the Bucks' starting lineup. Antetokounmpo's assist rate is at a career-high level even as his turnover rate continues to fall. Those evolutions have really taken hold in February, when he's averaged 3.5 assists and posted his first -- but surely not last -- triple-double.
Is this a thing?
To me, a "leap" is loosely defined as at least a 20 percent year-over-year improvement by some reliable bottom-line metric. Antetokounmpo's PER (16.9) is about 15 percent better than last season and is 56 percent ahead of his rookie season. His progress has been steady and gradual and, at 21, he's got plenty of rough edges left to smooth (re: jump shot). Lately, that smoothing process is showing results across the board. As his skills improve, the Bucks continue to ask more of him and he delivers.
Verdict?
It only gets better from here. Jabari Parker has shown signs of a breakout as well and with those two foundation players leading the way, the Bucks have started to get better results as a team. As always, my mantra is if a trend is resulting in team success, it stands a good chance of continuing. Also, there's this: Antetokounmpo has a season scoring average of 17.6 PPG on a .590 true shooting percentage at home, versus a 15.1 PPG on .548 true shooting percentage on the road. No team has a more home-heavy schedule to finish the season than Milwaukee.
What's up?
Lopez's missing numbers have been found. After averaging 8.8 points and 6.0 rebounds through January, Lopez has put up 14.7 points and 10.6 rebounds in February.
Why is this happening?
With a season-high 31.1 minutes per game this month, Lopez is playing more. That always helps. During those minutes, his usage rate (18.6 percent) is only marginally higher than the 17.5 percent figure he has for the season. But his efficiency has gone off the charts: His true shooting percentage through Jan. 31 was .556. In February, it's at .666. All this has pushed his averages from all-but-unplayable in fantasyland, to solid for his position.
Is this a thing?
One vote for sustainability lies in the fact that in five games under interim Knicks coach Kurt Rambis, Lopez has averaged 15 points and 10 boards in 29 minutes per night, all while shooting 67.3 percent from the field. A vote against it is that during Lopez's nine-game "breakout," the Knicks have won just once.
That said, let's focus on the rebounding part of this equation. Through January, he was averaging an even six rebounds -- 2.6 on offense, and 3.4 on defense. During February, he's up to the aforementioned 10.6 rebounds, with a split of 5.1 on offense and 5.4 on defense. (Blame rounding for the fact that doesn't add up to 10.6.) The improvement on the defensive end is important because that's been a sore point for Lopez, who has always been better at blocking out for others than clearing the glass himself. Great for his teams, but not so much for gamers. Kristaps Porzingis has seen a dip in defensive rebounding, and it appears Lopez has been there to soak up the difference.
The difference in offensive rebounding is stark. Lopez has all but set aside his high-post game and stayed around the hoop as a post presence and to attack the glass. The Knicks' shooting has been at season levels, so that doesn't explain. The extra offensive rebounds give Lopez extra looks at the hoop, and he's converted them at a very high (and possibly unsustainable) level of efficiency.
Verdict?
Color me skeptical. The fly in this particular ointment is that during Lopez's rise, the Knicks have the 27th-ranked net efficiency in the league. While Lopez can't be blamed for this stumble, precipitated mainly by disappearing defensive effort at the team level, he's been a part of it. Rambis is coaching for his job and so everyone's role, save for Carmelo Anthony, is subject to change. Indeed, in New York's loss to Indiana on Wednesday, Lopez took just three shots in 25 minutes.