Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic rightfully earns most of the attention in fantasy basketball in comparison to his teammates, for the obvious first pick in every fantasy basketball draft is also the top player in ESPN fantasy points scoring.
However, the Nuggets probably do not win the most recent NBA championship without the critical exploits of veteran PG Jamal Murray, and in his age-26 season, he continues to improve, mainly out of the spotlight.
Fantasy managers may have a complicated relationship with Murray. Some point guards shoot a lot and score tons of traditional points (Luka Doncic, De'Aaron Fox). Others pile on the assists and SportsCenter highlights (Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young), and provide the typical point guard statistics.
Murray has never really been like that. He is a difference maker, for sure, but his modest statistics tend to get lost among others, and while everyone marvels at Jokic consistently playing at an MVP level, Murray may be on his way to his best fantasy season.
In his eighth NBA season (seven with statistics, as he missed the 2021-22 campaign recovering from a torn ACL), Murray enters Thursday's matchup with the Golden State Warriors averaging 19.7 PPG, 6.2 APG and hitting a career-best 45% on 3-pointers. Last season, over 65 games in his successful return from a repaired knee, Murray averaged 37.4 ESPN fantasy points per game. This season, he is providing 40.2 PPG, though perhaps few have noticed.
Murray was not particularly coveted in ESPN average live drafts, falling to the sixth round and after 19 others with point guard eligibility, but today he is among the top 40 overall fantasy options on a per-game basis. This level of efficiency is something new for Murray, even as he plays fewer than 30 MPG for the first time since his rookie season. He is shooting well and has cut down on the turnovers. Some say it is easy to play with the best passing center in the sport, but Murray could register a career-high in assists, too.
Still, fantasy managers demand volume, too, and while Murray somewhat alleviates overall concern thanks to his statistics, he has played in only 21 of Denver's 35 games, and coach Michael Malone handles his minutes carefully. A right hamstring strain cost Murray most of November, but he thrived in December, exceeding 50 ESPN fantasy points in four games. He scored 52 fantasy points on New Year's Day against Charlotte, hitting a season-best five 3-pointers.
Some fantasy managers gave up on Murray during his November absence, and even today, he is rostered in only 95.9% of ESPN leagues. It may seem like a lot, but only three of the 51 players selected ahead of Murray in ESPN ADP are rostered in fewer leagues. Fantasy managers may look at Murray scoring fewer than 20 PPG, and they come away unimpressed. However, Murray averages more fantasy points than myriad high traditional scorers, including Toronto Raptors PF/C Pascal Siakam, New York Knicks PF Julius Randle and Detroit Pistons PG/SG Cade Cunningham, and he does so a bit unconventionally.
Avoiding turnovers may not matter so much to fantasy managers, until they attempt to ascertain why their players are not performing better. Cunningham is a fine example, since he is a more traditional point guard, averaging 7.3 APG. He also averages 3.9 TPG. That is a big problem. Houston Rockets PG Fred VanVleet, Golden State Warriors PG Chris Paul and Toronto Raptors PG Dennis Schroder are the only players averaging 7 APG and fewer than 2 TPG, but VanVleet is the only one guaranteed a starting role.
Three centers average better than 6 APG (Jokic, Sacramento Kings PF/C Domantas Sabonis and Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid), and in each case it affects the assist output for the team's point guard. Then again, would Murray become a double-digit assist provider playing without Jokic? That also seems unlikely. Murray always seemed more of a shooting guard than a pass-first option anyway. Still, after years of 4.8 APG, and without compromising Jokic, the assist number has risen. It can continue to do so.
Ultimately, fantasy managers should appreciate Murray more, as he averages 44.9 ESPN fantasy points over the past 30 days, 22nd in the league. Few would view Murray as a top-20 or even a top-40 player, but as the numbers continue to improve, and despite playing with arguably the league's top player, that time appears to be coming.
Some other brief thoughts on Murray's teammates
Jokic continues to provide incredible consistency and efficiency. He may finish second in league MVP voting again, since Embiid averages 34.8 PPG and everyone notices that gaudy figure, but, in some ways, Jokic is still improving. He has significantly cut his turnover rate, for example. Embiid, Doncic and others are amazing, too, but I am not sure how I could part with the durable Jokic in a fantasy league.
SF Michael Porter Jr. continues his odd, rather inconsistent ways, but he is averaging 31.3 ESPN fantasy points per game, up 2 points from last season. The main difference is a career-best 7.5 RPG, and this is mostly responsible for the Nuggets becoming a top-10 rebounding team. They were not last season. Still, watch Porter and it feels like he should be doing more. Perhaps if/when he raises his 3-point percentage to career rates, he can get back to approaching 20 PPG.
PF Aaron Gordon has seen his fantasy production drop from last season, from 32.6 ESPN Fantasy points per game to 30.1 points. Gordon's traditional scoring has taken a 3-point hit, as he sees fewer shots in this offense, and he is shooting a horrid 26% from 3-point range, so he may not deserve more. SF Peyton Watson, in his second season from UCLA, remains quite raw, but with upside for keeper formats. If the Nuggets leave him in the starting lineup for Gordon, perhaps he would score 30 fantasy points per game, too.