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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup. All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber. For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week. We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream. Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
In the Forecaster and this article, we have to treat the schedule as though it's fixed so we can evaluate. Clearly, at this time, the schedule is very fluid with games being regularly postponed due to COVID-19 absences. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's an absolute necessity to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week. We'll update the Forecaster to account for postponements as they happen.
This week, the schedule is actually moving in the opposite direction, with games being added. Anecdotally, it seems that the worst of the Omicron surge has passed the NBA and most teams are back at or near full strength. As a result, the NBA has started rescheduling games that were previously postponed. The Raptors and Bulls, and the Spurs and Heat will make up games with each other on Thursday, adding a game for each team. As a result, this is a busy week with 17 teams playing four games, 12 playing three and only one scheduled for two.
All of the teams to score above 7 this week have four games, led by the Pelicans with their perfect 10 built on games against opponents like the Rockets and Pistons. The Celtics, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, 76ers and Trail Blazers all scored 9s this week as solid offenses with plenty of games.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Magic, Wizards and Jazz all scored the minimum 1 this week. The Jazz only have two games, the Wizards three and the Magic four. The Knicks, Lakers, Mavericks and Hornets all scored twos with three games each. The Thunder, Clippers and Spurs scored 3s, with the Thunder playing four times and the other two teams scheduled for three.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting, based on what we know currently of the combination of the schedule and injuries. Please check back on Monday, to see what team schedules may have changed ahead of Monday's roster lock.