The surprising Miami Heat sit atop the Eastern Conference, which is quite shocking considering how many games stars SG/SF Jimmy Butler and PF/C Bam Adebayo have missed this season.
Coach Erik Spoelstra's overachieving squad blew out the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday -- disregard the final score, as a fourth-quarter letdown misleads -- and did so in large part because Butler dominated and SG/SF Duncan Robinson drained myriad 3-pointers, but from a fantasy basketball aspect, can we trust the individuals on this team?
The short answer is I love Adebayo, the versatile big man who recently returned from missing nearly two months after thumb surgery, but even he might be a bit overrated for fantasy purposes. Yep, that includes the enigmatic Butler. His Sunday triple-double was quite impressive and his third in six games over 10 days, but also it was a reminder of his maddening inconsistency.
The overall numbers tell us Butler is offering statistically pretty much what he has been doing since joining the Heat for the 2019 season, but for those in daily and weekly head-to-head formats, well, we just never know.
Check out this month for some proof: Butler enters Wednesday's home game on ESPN against the New York Knicks averaging 16.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 7.5 APG in January, which is fine, but he also missed three games because of a right ankle sprain. Butler missed nearly all of December because of a bruised tailbone, and it is not as if this history of missing games is new. Eighteen games so far this season, 20 last season, 15 when he carried the team to the NBA Finals in 2019-20. Great player, but only some of the time.
In addition, while Butler has three triple-doubles since returning from his latest malady, the other three games were underwhelming, and not exactly in blowout wins against league doormats. Sure, one was the infamous ejection game against the Portland Trail Blazers, when he again could not control his emotions. Butler scored four points with three assists in 15 minutes. He also shot 1-for-11 in a tight home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers and 5-for-14 in a two-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Butler is shooting 24% on 3-pointers for the third consecutive season, yet he continues to fire away.
Nobody knows if the Heat can hold on to the No. 1 spot in the East, but it sure seems unlikely that Butler, now 32, is going to play all the games along the journey.
Does that mean fantasy managers must trade him? Well, on a per-game basis, Butler remains fantastic. There is little debate there. If he had enough games to qualify for the scoring title, we would see he is one of six players averaging at least 20 PPG, 6 RPG and 6 APG, and nobody in that crew averages more steals. Butler's shooting percentages are also strong. The problem is he misses games, lots of them, and other fantasy managers might regard him as a building-block player. Now is a wise time to try to move him after Sunday's notable win over LeBron James.
Meanwhile, the Heat signed PG Kyle Lowry in part to add another playmaker to the group, take some of the scoring and passing load from Butler, though it always felt like an odd fit. Adebayo averaged better than 5 APG each of the past two seasons, a key part of his value. Did the Heat need a pure point guard? Lowry, 35, averages 8.3 APG, but overall we would describe his season as disappointing. He is averaging only 13.4 PPG and shooting 34% on field goals in January. He missed the past week for personal reasons. I traded for him in one keeper league about a month ago and now kind of regret it.
The Heat are really the sum of their parts, to a large degree, and that rarely appeases fantasy managers. This is all about value, really. Yeah, Butler should be a top-20 fantasy option, but we cannot regard him that way when he misses so many games. Adebayo should also be a top-20 fantasy option, as he was the past two seasons, but not without the assists. Lowry cannot be a top-10 point guard shooting so poorly and so infrequently. Sixth man PG/SG Tyler Herro, currently in COVID-19 protocols, has struggled with his shot in January and was hardly a versatile fantasy option to begin with.
That is why the chances are good a fantasy manager could trade Butler, Adebayo, Lowry and Herro in exchange for more than they really are worth, though there is nothing wrong with keeping these players and enjoying solid, but perhaps misleading production. The No. 2 Miami player on the 15-day Player Rater is actually their sixth man Caleb Martin, still available in 97% of ESPN standard leagues. It hardly means that will continue, but that is value. Butler for a durable, top-20 player is also value.
One more Heat thought, a brief rant if you will: Undrafted C Omer Yurtseven certainly did his job with Adebayo out, averaging 11 PPG and 13 RPG over his month of big minutes, shooting and defending well. Then Adebayo returns and that is all, the native of Turkey simply left the rotation. Boring veteran Dewayne Dedmon backs up Adebayo. Um, what gives? Yes, he is a rookie, and Dedmon is not, but really, that is it? I cannot recall seeing a player thrive for so long and then suddenly, bam, it is over sans warning.
Do not question Spoelstra, multiple winner of NBA titles and leading this team so gallantly, but what a strange turn. Yeah, I advocated for moving on from Yurtseven in this space a few weeks ago, but I did not expect it to end so suddenly!
Now we suddenly move on and offer the latest edition of the Trade Index. The season is roughly halfway complete, but do not wait too long to make trades in your leagues!
Trade for
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers: While I would love my favorite team to peddle its unhappy former point guard whose initials spell "BS" for anything that could help the team win now, it seems more likely that this is going to be Philadelphia's roster for the duration of this season. GM Daryl Morey cannot get what he wants in trade. Maxey has 14 assists in his past two games and is becoming a more reliable offensive option than SF/PF Tobias Harris. The time is now to trade for Maxey, who is somehow rostered in fewer than 80% of ESPN leagues, and only barely more than the former point guard they cannot trade. Move on from Ben Simmons. He is not playing this season.
Aaron Gordon, SF/PF, Denver Nuggets: Still available in roughly 50% of ESPN leagues, Gordon is shooting 55% from the field in January, averaging 15.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG in that span. Nobody is saying he is Butler, but this is a valuable player. Gordon also delivered a nine-assist game recently and has become the second-most-valuable Nugget after MVP contender Nikola Jokic, passing SG/SF Will Barton. The good times should continue.
Trade away
Coby White, PG, Chicago Bulls: He is one of the most added players in ESPN leagues because starting point guard Lonzo Ball had knee surgery, but White is not a distributor. Neither he nor the other starting guard on Sunday night, the similarly popular Ayo Dosunmu, even had an assist in that loss to the lowly Orlando Magic. Dosunmu is the better passer. I bet he sticks in the lineup when Zach LaVine returns to health.
Myles Turner, C, Indiana Pacers: A stress reaction in his left foot has him on the proverbial shelf until at the least the NBA trade deadline, which is coming soon. The Pacers are going nowhere, looking to retool the roster, and there is no guarantee Turner plays again anytime soon. His main value in roto leagues is with his league-leading block average, as he is not a great scorer or rebounder, but I think there is at least a chance we do not even see him again this season. Goga Bitadze is all the rage and finally getting his chance and, well, good for him. Add Goga!