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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead as of this writing, there are no known cancellations of games for the next week due to COVID-19. The hope is that there will be no COVID-19 cancellations this season. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week just in case.
Coming off the holiday, the upcoming is the lightest full week of the NBA season thus far in terms of games played. There are only eight teams with four scheduled games, 20 teams with three and two teams only play twice. The number of teams with three and four games is inverted from the norm, which means that players on teams with four games will be at a special premium this week. On the flip side, guys on teams with three games aren't at as much of a disadvantage as they might typically be, and even players on teams with two games aren't necessarily out of contention to play.
Seven of the eight teams with four scheduled games scored at least a 7 on the Forecaster, with the Cleveland Cavaliers as the lone exception (more on them below). The LA Clippers scored the only perfect 10 this week, while the Washington Wizards notched the only 9. The Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers all turned their four games into 8s in the Forecaster. The Milwaukee Bucks are the only team to score an 8 with only three games.
On the other side of the coin, the Detroit Pistons scored the only 1 this week with two games. The Los Angeles Lakers also only have two games, and they scored a 3. The Cavaliers slotted in with a 3 in the Forecaster despite having four games, but their schedule is a monster with three road games against the Miami Heat, Mavericks and Wizards with their lone home game against the Utah Jazz. The Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings both play three times and scored a 2 and 3, respectively, in the Forecaster.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.