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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week. We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster!
The week ahead As of this writing, there are no known cancellations of games for the next week due to COVID-19. The hope is that there will be no COVID-19 cancellations this season. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week just in case.
The NBA action continues fast and furious, writing the storylines of the season. This week, we got to see Steph and the Golden State Warriors absolutely beat-down former teammate KD and the Brooklyn Nets in what could've been an NBA Finals preview. In another potential foreshadow, Giannis Antetokounmpo came directly at Anthony Davis ' chest as the Bucks ran through the still LeBron-less Los Angeles Lakers. The Phoenix Suns have a winning streak longer than the number of games played this NFL season. We're getting huge games on almost a nightly basis, and I'm here for all of it.
On the fantasy front, the upcoming week promises some extremely compelling storylines. Both the Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks only play twice this week. What does that mean for reigning and potentially future MVPs Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic? But, that's jumping ahead, and I'll discuss that more in depth on the Weekly Rankings article.
This week, 16 NBA teams have four games scheduled, 12 have three, and as mentioned the Mavericks and Nuggets only play twice. All eight teams to score 8 or higher on the Forecaster this week play four games led by the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz who scored 10s. The Boston Celtics have the only 9 score, while each of the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies weigh in with 8s.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Pistons had four games but still only managed a 3 in the rankings. The Mavericks joined the three-game Oklahoma City Thunder with scores of 1, while the Nuggets joined the three-game Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs with 2s. The Houston Rockets have three scheduled games, and scored a 3.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.