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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead, as of this writing, there are no known cancellations of games for the next week due to COVID-19. The hope is that there will be no COVID-19 cancellations this time around. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week just in case.
This season has been fun already, with storylines galore. The most dominant perimeter scorers from last season are all off to slow starts...how much of that is due to the league's new emphasis on limiting false foul calls? The tops of the standings are full of teams that were in the lottery last season...how much of this is real, and how much just early season follies? And, of course, these things all translate directly to your fantasy basketball teams' successes and failures, so paying attention to how it's playing out and adapting your strategy to make best use of the new information is a must. In short...enjoy watching the games and reading the analysis, so you can be the one that gets ahead of your league mates in the race for the chip.
To that end, let's take a look at our Forecaster to see which teams are more set up to get it going next week vs those that may have more scheduling hurdles to overcome.
Every team this week plays either four games (16 teams) or three (14 teams), so there are no extremes at either end for games played. Thus, it makes sense that there are only a few teams at the very top of the Forecaster ratings with most teams somewhere in the middle. All four of the teams to score 8 or higher this week have four games scheduled. The Clippers and 76ers scored the only perfect 10s, with seven of their eight combined opponents having missed the playoffs last season. The Jazz, the last team to lose a game this season, scored a 9 for next week's schedule while the Pacers notched an 8.
On the other side of the coin, there were no 4s in this week's Forecaster so there is a glut of 3s to go along with a few 2s and only one 1. The Thunder scored that 1, with only three games including a two-game road trip against the two LA squads. The Pistons, Heat and Magic (four games) scored 2s, while the Bulls, Cavaliers (four games), Mavericks, Rockets (four games) and Timberwolves all scored 3s. The Cavs, Bulls and Timberwolves are all examples of lottery teams last season off to great starts this season, so if they can continue to cook they could outplay their Forecaster values.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.