This is a big week for New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson, and if you fall asleep, you might miss it!
Oh sure, we can all laugh at the news he made last week, as he apparently nodded off on the bench while the team was blowing a large fourth-quarter lead before it prevailed in overtime at Detroit, but the bigger news is obvious: The No. 1 pick in the draft is ready to debut! Yes, the 19-year-old Duke product has seemingly recovered from his knee injury and is slated to make his NBA debut Wednesday night on ESPN. Could there be better news?
Trade him, fantasy managers. Trade him now, before he plays, before the value changes. The window is closing.
I really am an upbeat, optimistic person, but I like to think I am realistic too. What do people really think is going to happen here, at least statistically speaking? Williamson is talented, so talented, and he proved it in his one college season, scoring and dunking and rebounding and blocking shots seemingly at will. Nobody questioned the Pelicans calling his name to open the 2019 draft. There was no other choice. The problem for fantasy managers -- and it does not have to be one -- is separating the myth from reality for the rest of the 2020 season. (In keeper formats, go get him.)
I see several myths.
Let us start with this one: Williamson tore the meniscus in his right knee back in October and was supposed to miss 6-8 weeks. That is normal recovery time, but we are way past eight weeks. The Pelicans are 15-26. Perhaps a good run pushes them into the final West playoff spot, where LeBron James and Anthony Davis -- if they bother to suit up -- can sweep them, but that seems unlikely and counterproductive. The Pelicans cannot admit it, but they would prefer the lottery pick, the chance to add another star. Regardless, the franchise is taking things slowly -- painfully so -- with this future star.
With exactly half their games played, how many games will Williamson play the final few months? All 41? C'mon. That presupposes he can remain healthy, which is also seriously in question. How about 30 of the 41 games? Fair, but I doubt that is enough to satiate fantasy managers. Frankly, with one keeper team sporting a bench of Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Stephen Curry, Mike Conley and Jusuf Nurkic, I actively seek out healthy players that play regularly. I do have concerns about Williamson's durability, but especially for the latter half of a season in which his team is going nowhere and can rest him sans cause.
Missing an occasional game or a slew of them is no longer an aberrant exercise in the NBA. Towns has been day-to-day with a knee injury for four weeks. If his team were playoff-bound, perhaps this would not be the case. It is all the rage for NBA teams to rest players regularly, healthy or not. Consider how the 76ers treated brittle center Embiid in the past, sitting him for the second half of back-to-backs, constantly monitoring his minutes, his overall workload. The Pelicans seem to be in no hurry to get Williamson back to playing. I think he will debut soon. I do not think he plays "regularly" from that point on. I think the most minor of tweaks to a knee or hamstring or anything and he sits.
The second issue for those in redraft formats -- again, this entire diatribe is about the final three months of this regular season only -- is performance. We know what Williamson did in college, but there has to be an adjustment period in the NBA, especially for someone that -- I kid you not -- the team retrained on how to walk and run properly. Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant is the lone 2019 draftee averaging more than 14.1 points per game. Nobody from the draft averages as many as six rebounds per game. Williamson might be special, historic even, but there is a big difference between playing Clemson (sorry about Monday night) and the Detroit Pistons.
ESPN Fantasy originally projected 52 games for Williamson, which is already well out the window, and 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds and awesome figures in field goal shooting, steals and blocks. Not to be mean, but I kind of scoffed at these numbers when I saw them. How about a reasonable 18 points and 10 boards? OK, I can see that, but that was before this charade of missed games and pseudo-tanking took place. Also, 28.1 points per game sans a consistent outside shot? I never saw that happening and sure do not see it until the player gets a full offseason to hone his shot and mesh with his teammates. Not every NBA player hits 3-pointers, but it sure seems important.
Also, look around the scrappy Pelicans. Few figured new forward Brandon Ingram would blossom into stardom and average 25 points per game, but here we are. Point guard Jrue Holiday averages nearly 20 points per game and fellow guards Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick demand shots as well. Williamson is not joining a club bereft of talent or scoring, and he cannot push everyone around as he did in the ACC. Shooting matters and Williamson's jump shot is problematic. If anything, Williamson's presence makes it more likely the team's actual shooters -- like Redick -- get better looks. Ingram hits 2.5 3-pointers per game. That should only continue, if not rise.
Perhaps Williamson can clean up on the boards, where undersized Derrick Favors leads the club at 6.8 rebounds per game, but do not get the wrong idea about this team either: The Pelicans might not have any one Drummond-type garnering all the rebounds, but they are 12th in the category and respectable in rebounding differential. They just have a village of players doing the rebounding, including guards. I think Williamson, with his wide body and strength, can average as many rebounds as he desires, even right away, but I also do not see any stat padding looming. Favors, rookie Jaxson Hayes and forgotten Jahlil Okafor will still be covering centers. Zion is a 6-7 forward. On a bad defensive club, other Pelicans will continue to chip in rebounding.
Would you trade Williamson for Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton or Sacramento Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox? You should. How about Memphis Grizzlies big Jaren Jackson Jr. or Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. You should. In fact, while Williamson moves up in my head-to-head categories rankings, he hardly sniffs the top 50. Name value should not matter, but it does. Give me Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins. He probably scores more, rebounds more and plays more the final three months. What about Thunder center Steven Adams? Williamson should score more, but I doubt he shoots better, perhaps from the field and the line. Adams is durable too. Anyway, if you do not inquire about a trade, you might never know. Who cares what round you drafted Williamson in?
OK, so half of you probably think this entire premise is ridiculous. Why does this idiot hate Zion Williamson? He doesn't! Williamson's long-term future is incredibly bright, assuming he can stay -- well, stay is not the right word; how about become -- healthy and continue to develop his game. I can see a 28-point, 11-board fantasy monster at some point in the future, hitting 56% of his field goals, adding a pair of steals and blocks per game.
I cannot see this in the winter/spring of 2020. The Pelicans must be cautious. Get his proverbial feet wet, whet the palate for all, sell tickets. Play him in the nationally televised games, of which there are many. Sit him versus Sacramento the night after playing on the road at Memphis.
Fantasy sports are about value and numbers, and this transcendent talent -- top 50 in dynasty formats, top 50 for the 2020-21 season -- is not going to perform statistically how you think, and enough of the time, for the next three months. Waiting to see him perform in a few games this month, when they might not go so well, could be too late. His value before he plays will not be higher this season. Prepare accordingly, if you dare.