A few weeks ago, Nikola Jokic was sitting at 50th on the Player Rater as he came off a stretch of five single-digit scoring efforts in eight games. I pointed out that this made him an excellent buy-low candidate because his history reveals that he typically has slow starts in the first 20 or so games of the season before exploding into a top-five player after that.
Since the day that article ran, Jokic has averaged 22.8 PPG (55.6 FG%), 10.3 RPG, 8.3 APG and 1.9 3PG and has jumped into the top 20 on the Player Rater.
A player's history often gives us a good idea of what to expect from him moving forward. There are other players who, like Jokic, have a tendency to pick things up as the season goes along. They might not be off to particularly slow starts, but their histories suggest that whatever levels they are currently operating at are likely their floors moving forward.
As Lizzo would say, some players are (only) great 'til they gotta be great -- then they fade down the stretch and leave fantasy managers scrambling for the fantasy basketball playoffs. But not these guys. Here is a holiday wish list of potential trade targets for fantasy basketball teams. This group of players delivers in the second half of the season.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns is the poster child for this effect, having improved dramatically in the second half of every season of his career. Here are his pre-All-Star and post-All-Star splits for all four of his seasons:
While he improved even as a rookie, he has stepped it up even more as his career has progressed. The past three seasons, Towns has improved by an average of 4.7 PPG and 1.3 RPG after the All-Star Break. As of Dec. 21, Towns is averaging 26.5 PPG and 11.7 RPG and is ranked eighth on the ESPN Player Rater.
If he hits his usual levels of improvement, we could be looking at Towns averaging more than 31 points with 13 rebounds during the stretch run that includes the FBA playoffs. That's not too shabby.
Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
The Jazz have gone on big second-half runs as a team the past two seasons, so it is unsurprising that their two best players tend to pick up the pace as the season goes along.
Gobert has done this for longer, increasing by 2.5 PPG and 0.6 RPG after the All-Star Break the past three seasons. Mitchell is in only his third season, but his improvement in his first two campaigns has been even more pronounced, with increases of 3.6 PPG, 0.7 RPG and 0.6 APG after the break.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Looking at three-year averages, Lillard has improved by 1.7 PPG and 0.6 APG after the All-Star Break. However, with a closer look, we see that he tends to improve in one area or the other by more significant margins each season. During the 2016-17 and 2017-18 campaigns, he improved from 25.9 PPG before the break to 29.2 PPG after the break for a +3.3 PPG improvement. Last season, Lillard made his jump as a distributor, improving by 1.7 APG after the break.
This season, Lillard has the capacity to improve in both, as the Trail Blazers absolutely need his scoring as they try to recover from a slow start to get back to the playoffs. He also has another scoring finisher to work with in Carmelo Anthony, who gives Lillard more potential assist targets this season than he's used to having.
Bottom line
The fantasy basketball season is very long, and the players who are doing it for your team in the late fall and early winter might not be the same as the ones doing it for you come spring. This group has a proven history of upping their games down the stretch, so putting them on your holiday trade wish list and bringing them in now could put your team in better position to compete for the chip down the line.