We are nearing the quarter pole of the season, with each team having played roughly 20 games, and player values have started to get clearer. However, even this far into the season, there are still players -- some of them great players -- who have not yet found their rhythm the way they likely will.
Last time out, I discussed players off to fast starts whom you should trade away before their production slows. Today, I'll do the opposite and identify some guys whose price tag may have come down due to a slow start but who also have a good chance to bounce back and become the players we drafted them to be.
Fantasy stars
Jokic was a consensus top-five fantasy pick this season but is currently sitting at 50th on the ESPN fantasy basketball Player Rater. He's averaging about 15 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists thus far, well under the 20, 11 and 7 that earned him a top-five finish in MVP voting last season.
So ... what's gone wrong? There haven't been any major lineup changes for the Nuggets, so it's not like he's had to adjust to a new roster or system. The team was the second seed in the West last season and is in the mix this season as well, despite Jokic's relative struggles.
Some speculate that Jokic came into the season out of shape and that he just isn't physically capable of doing the things that he showed us last season. Others suggest that the weight of expectations could be affecting him, that perhaps he's not ready to be "the man" on a contending team.
But I'm not convinced. In fact, I have definite memories of similar conversations about Jokic in the past.
Last season, through his first 22 games, Jokic averaged 16, 10 and 7 ... only to explode for 23, 12 and 8 in the next 41 games.
The season before last, through his first 21 games, Jokic averaged 16, 11 and 5 ... then popped for 21, 11 and 7 in his last 40 games.
There has never been any good explanation given for why Jokic struggles through long periods of inconsistency and lack of offensive aggression, particularly early in seasons. But by now we've seen this story before. Jokic has trouble early, then finds himself and dominates. This seems to happen every season. Get him now and enjoy your top-five player in the second half.
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid and Simmons have both experienced drop-offs as scorers this season. Embiid went from averaging 27.5 PPG on 18.7 FGA and 10.1 FTA last season to 22.6 PPG on 15.7 FGA and 8.6 FTA, while Simmons has dropped from 16.9 PPG on 12.2 FGA and 5.4 FTA to 13.2 PPG on only 10.2 FGA and 3.7 FTA this season.
There are some plausible explanations for these drops. The 76ers lost a high-usage perimeter creator in Jimmy Butler and a dead-eye shooter in JJ Redick, but new additions Josh Richardson and Al Horford plus a full season of Tobias Harris more than make up for the scoring volume. And if the 76ers' offense were clicking, I might be convinced that their egalitarian usage across the starting five might be the new normal.
Instead, the 76ers are struggling on offense. They rank 17th in the NBA in team offensive rating (ORTG), producing only 107.3 points per 100 possessions, a significant drop-off from last season's 111.6 points per 100 that ranked eighth in the league. Those struggles have placed the 76ers, who have serious championship aspirations and expectations to challenge the Bucks for the top spot in the East, down into a mashup of five teams that are a clear step back.
Given that the downturn in team offense correlates so highly to the decrease in usage of Embiid and Simmons, I expect that the 76ers will eventually course correct by leaning more heavily on their two best players.
Richardson, Harris and Horford are all excellent perimeter shooters who should still provide enough spacing for Embiid and Simmons to be able to operate in the paint. I expect Embiid to become the clear offensive focal point, with Simmons also reestablishing his aggressiveness at attacking the rim, and for this to lead to clear fantasy basketball dividends for the duo moving forward.
Suspended players
Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns and John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
Each player was suspended 25 games near the start of the regular season for violating league banned-substance policies and have thus been giving their fantasy teams zeroes for most of the season. But Ayton is eligible to return to the lineup on Dec. 17, while Collins can come back on Dec. 23.
As a bonus, both players have games well-suited to the ESPN points scoring format with production that surpasses their name-recognition value. Last season, Collins and Ayton ranked 23rd and 27th, respectively, in fantasy points per game in their first full seasons as primary contributors. Both have the potential to be significantly better as sophomores, making them buy-low candidates, both for their lack of current availability and their upside.
If you're willing to eat a couple of more weeks of absences, you may be able to pry these guys away for a bit less than their name recognition value ... which could be significantly less than what they might actually be worth for the 2020 portion of the season.
Injured players
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans and Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
Williamson and Bagley are both potential 20-10 big men who could be back within the next month.
Williamson was initially projected to be out for six to eight weeks, and the six-week mark passed on Monday. The Pelicans have publicly stated that they plan to be overly cautious with him and that even once he returns, he won't initially play both ends of back-to-backs. Even so, Williamson has the kind of electric upside that could make him worth the risk. In fact, use those risk factors and his current absence to try to drive down the trade price as much as possible.
Bagley looks likely to return to the court much sooner, as he was cleared for full contact basketball work on Thursday.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
Bagley's teammate is another sidelined superstar, and while he is still considered "multiple weeks away" with his ankle injury, he is another player who could be worth scooping up now.
Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers
Oladipo has been practicing with the Pacers' G League affiliate for weeks now, indicating that his own return could be on the horizon.
Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics
The Celtics swingman is another name to consider, as he was in the midst of a renaissance season before his hand injury. He is expected to return to practice this weekend.
Bottom line
Nobody really likes trading star players. However, rostering underachieving or absent star players typically means that a manager's fantasy team is struggling. By this point in the season, many teams just can't afford to be patient as their squads drop in the standings.
If you have a team that can weather those situations, or better yet, if you can make a trade at a low enough cost to mitigate the risk, dealing for these players now just might help you win a championship of your own come spring.