We are about a month into this NBA season, and already there are all kinds of storylines we couldn't have predicted.
It was spectacularly controversial when my colleague Bobby Marks suggested the Warriors might miss the playoffs this season, but a month (and a Stephen Curry broken hand) later, the Warriors might legitimately be the worst team in the NBA. Meanwhile, teams like the Phoenix Suns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are looking down in the standings on perennial playoff regulars like the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. In the NBA, life comes at you fast!
But what about players who are actually playing better than we expected. Do we just accept that this is the new normal? Or, especially in fantasy basketball circles, should we look at some of these situations with skepticism and an eye toward opportunity?
Of course, I argue the latter.
Now, there are some changes that I predicted, so I therefore expect them to last. For example, in my preseason rankings, I had Pascal Siakam as a top-10 player who would bump his scoring average way up into the 20s, so I find his hot start believable. I'm even willing to consider that some players may have finally gotten over a hump, as I'm cautiously optimistic that this new-and-improved Andrew Wiggins might actually be for real.
But there are other cases where a player is off to a hot start and I'm not convinced it will last. Or, said another way, there are players whom I think are, right now, as valuable as they will ever be. Thus, if you can trade them away now, while they are at their highest value point, it will benefit your team in the long run.
Without further ado, let's check out some of the prime sell-high players in the NBA.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
We just got to see George and Leonard on the court together for the first time on Wednesday, and they were involved in a classic overtime battle against a quality Celtics squad. The Clips took it in overtime, with George scoring 25 points with eight assists. Leonard was a bit rusty off his three-game layoff (knee), so he managed only 17 points despite 20 field goal attempts.
Going into Wednesday, Leonard was averaging 26.8 PPG on 21.4 FGA to go with 8.9 RPG and 6.0 APG. George was averaging a whopping 29.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 3.7 APG in only 24.3 MPG in his first three games back from injury.
The issue is that, because they weren't playing together, George and Leonard were essentially using the same resources. Both were able to be high-volume offensive producers on high usage without disrupting the rest of the Clippers' chemistry. Lou Williams was still able to average 22.1 PPG and Montrezl Harrell could chip in his 18.9 PPG in similar roles to last season.
But, at some level, the NBA is a zero-sum game. Additional pace or excellent defense might add some possessions, but essentially the math just doesn't support a team with two players averaging 20 PPG and another two averaging nearly 30. At some point, something has to give.
Thus, as the season goes along, those scoring averages are going to come down. Instead of averaging more than 56 PPG between them, George and Leonard likely come down to around 50 PPG between them, at best, in games they play together. The only thing that would "help" those scoring averages is that both players will likely miss their fair share of "load management" games as they continue to deal with their injury situations.
But while this might help them increase their per-game averages, the missed games are another long-term issue for fantasy managers. Leonard missed a quarter of his games last season and has been on a similar pace thus far this season. George's shoulder issues may not require as much management as Leonard's knee, but every game that he does miss is another opportunity fantasy managers can't get back -- and there may not be much warning for these absences.
All told, if you can talk one of your league mates into trading for either or both at values anywhere near their current per-game averages, that would put your team in a much more secure situation moving forward.
LeBron James, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers
James is playing like a man at the peak of his powers who is motivated to prove all of his naysayers wrong. He is showing that he should still be considered the best player in the world, with a very legitimate shot at yet another MVP award.
James stated earlier this month that he has no interest in load management, and every few games he does some absurd LeBronian deed (like this disrespectful posterization of Nemanja Bjelica) and commemorates it on social media with a facetious #WashedKing hashtag. He's clearly motivated to show he's still got it.
But, the thing is, James is playing in his 17th NBA season with a 35th birthday next month, and -- this is key -- James' real legacy goals for this season can't be accomplished in the regular season. For this season to be a success, he needs to be at his best while leading the Lakers to postseason success and, ultimately, a championship. Thus, I have trouble believing he will continue to play almost 35 MPG while taking part in every game, the way that he has thus far.
Next, factor in that James has averaged more than 11 missed games per season over the past eight seasons, including 27 last season.
Then, consider that in NBA history, there have been only 37 instances of a player in at least his 15th season and at least 34 years old playing more than 32 minutes per game. Since Michael Jordan's retirement from the Bulls in 1998, there have been 27 such cases; in 18 of those instances, the player played at least 75 games, but in nine of them, he played 70 or fewer. In very recent history, since the 2011-12 NBA lockout, there have been seven such examples and James is on pace to be the eighth. Four of those previous examples included at least 77 games played, but three of them (including James in 2018-19) included 55 or fewer games played.
While history suggests James has a chance to be one of those great stories, one need only look back at last season to see how things can go awry, even for a player as historically durable as James.
And even in his gameplay, there is some indication that his start may be unsustainable. He is currently leading the NBA with 11.2 APG, which translates to a whopping 15.2 assists per 100 possessions. These numbers are far outside of the norm for James, who has never averaged double-figure assists for a season and has a career-best rate of 12.1 assists per 100 possessions.
Not coincidentally, the lion's share of the Lakers' games so far have come with James as the unquestioned point guard, but moving forward, he'll be dealing with assist-vacuum Rajon Rondo getting his share of minutes as well.
Now, could he, in Season 17, modify how he plays and completely destroy the game in an entirely new way? In fact ... yes. Yes, he could.
But is it likely?
More importantly, as noted above, is it conceivable that he gets any better moving forward than he is right now? To that, I say no. Maybe James plays 80 games at this level, so if you trade him, be sure you extract that level of value in return for a trade. But, if you can, it'd be the safe move because if he doesn't maintain that pace, you would already be more than covered.
Irving missed his third straight game Wednesday with a shoulder injury. The injury is considered day-to-day, which would suggest he should be back on the court soon. As soon as he returns and has another big game, my advice would be to put him on the trade block immediately because his value is at a max and his injury history is scary.
Irving is currently on pace for a career-high in usage at 33.5 percent. His 28.5 PPG average is more than three full points higher than his career best of 25.2 PPG three seasons ago. He's also topping his best marks in both APG and A/TO ratio. His per-game fantasy stats are the best they've ever been and unlikely to get any better.
Unfortunately, what is likely, based on his history, is that Irving will miss more games before the season is over. Irving has averaged 18.5 missed games/season for the past four seasons. He missed 15 and 22 games, respectively, during the past two seasons. Put that together, and Irving is almost a textbook sell-high candidate whom you should be able to extract good value in a trade by emphasizing his numbers and situation in Brooklyn and downplaying his injury history.
Andre Drummond, Brandon Ingram, Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis
All four of these players are producing career-best numbers and playing at arguably All-Star levels during the early part of the season. All four are still young and developing, and each could absolutely maintain their early-season production if given the opportunity.
So, why are they on this list?
Four names: Blake Griffin, Zion Williamson, Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner.
All four of the latter have missed some or all of the early weeks of the season due to injury. But all are either already back or expected back within the near future. Their presence is bad news for their teammates' production volume, because each of these stars occupies similar space as their younger cohorts and will vacuum their share of the volume.
While I expect that Drummond, Ingram, Brogdon and Sabonis should continue to play at a high level, the likelihood is that their stats will never be as good this season when their teammates are alongside them on the floor. Each of them, now, has outplayed their respective draft positions to date. If you can move them at the value level that they've produced thus far, your team will likely end up ahead in the long run.