The timing was perfect. I had planned all weekend to write about the excellent rebounding production from a pair of Cleveland Cavaliers -- yes, my weekends sure are fun-filled -- and how I decided to avoid having any shares of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson long ago. Then, in Sunday's rousing loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, a team the Cavaliers nearly topped in Philly just a few days prior, Love left early with a lower back contusion and any evidence needed to make my point became clearer.
You see, while Love is a fantastic player in real life and fantasy, with career averages of 18.3 points and 11.3 rebounds and many 3-pointers over 12 NBA seasons, he is not the most durable player around. Love missed all but 22 games last season and failed to suit up for more than 60 games in either of the two prior campaigns, and while exceptions are possible based on your league rules and format, I tend to avoid brittle players. Love is 31 years old and NBA players do not get healthier in their 30s.
The Sunday injury forced Love to miss Monday's rousing loss at Madison Square Garden to the terrible New York Knicks, a team already looking ahead to next season. The Knicks are within a half game of the Cavaliers. We certainly could imply that Love did not rush back -- or was not rushed back by the team -- last season because the Cavaliers were far from contending, so what would change this year? The Cavaliers are still lacking in the pieces to contend, but they just happen to boast two of the top 12 rebounders in the league, a distinction no other club can make.
So we should not be surprised that Love (18.2 points, 12.1 rebounds) and Thompson (14.5 points, 10.1 rebounds) are performing to this level, but the fact they will enter Wednesday's game in Miami having missed a combined one game in 26 chances is the aberrant statistic, and one fantasy investors need to think about. Thompson is no Cal Ripken Jr. himself, having missed 68 games the past two seasons. That is quite a bit. Thompson, 28, used to play all the games, but rugged rebounding takes a toll on even the biggest bodies. Fantasy investors love production, but undependable options on bad teams with a clear recent history of shenanigans is a tough one to recommend.
The Cavaliers have a rookie head coach, Michigan's John Beilein, and a rookie point guard, Vanderbilt's Darius Garland -- he played only five games in college! -- and while the starting lineup looks capable and has kept the team in games, it seems only a matter of time before second-year guard Collin Sexton plays a pseudo-D'Angelo Russell (Warriors) role and launches 25 shots per game because there is nobody else to shoot. Oh, you say this is what the Cavaliers want, because Love and Thompson are trade bait. Fair point, but the leap to trusting these players to remain healthy even on contenders seems like a large one to me.
The Cavaliers will not push Love and Thompson to play regularly when 50-plus losses seem guaranteed. Love trade talk will run rampant, but his contract makes it tough. This franchise is playing for next season and fantasy investors -- other than Sexton -- need to plan for the worst.
The "worst," in this case, is watching productive players suddenly miss swaths of games whether there is a major injury concern or not. I do not think I am breaking news here. Love dealt with toe, back and shoulder woes last season, to what extent perhaps only he knows. He is currently averaging more than 32 minutes per game for a 4-9 team with precious little shooting and a two-man bench comprised of Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson. Thompson has added the 3-point shot to his game -- though it is not a pretty-looking shot, or a common one -- and is suddenly blocking shots like never before, but he is undersized for a center and likely to break down.
Unfortunately, it seems likely a streak of 10 losses in 12 games or something to that ilk is pending, and if Love or Thompson miss games -- which they will -- this situation could look worse than the Golden State Warriors. I am not sure I would even want to invest in Sexton, an undersized shooting guard offering nothing in rebounds, assists and steals, and likely to hurt your field goal numbers. Russell runs the Warriors when healthy and contributes across the statistical board. Frankly, I think it is likely he misses swaths of games as well. The Warriors could never say it, but losing is the preferred option this season.
Nance is the only other Cavs player averaging more than four rebounds per game, but is limited offensively. Ante Zizic is 22 and awfully raw, and about to see a spike in minutes that he does not deserve. Cedi Osman starts but cannot find his shot and defend others. Rookie Kevin Porter Jr. could take his playing time soon. Look, someone has to play on this team, but Love and Thompson cannot carry the roster for long. Eventually, the Cavaliers will trade them, but Love is in the first year of a four-year, $120 million contract, so it seems unlikely in the short term. Thompson seems more likely to go, but to a team that would not let him average 14.5 points and log 31.6 minutes. Be careful here before it is too late.
Here are other random thoughts relating to fantasy and the NBA.
If Thompson can fire up seven 3-pointers in 13 games, and hit three of them, Ben Simmons surely can. Alas, he will not and has no intention to add this element to his game, at least in the near future. Yes, it is early, but Simmons's numbers hardly inspire. He is scoring and rebounding far less than last season now that Al Horford is around. Simmons is a point guard averaging 13.7 points and 7.1 assists, with more rebounds than most guards, and fewer 3-point makes than Kevon Looney and Bam Adebayo. His free throw shooting is horrendous. I like watching him and the upside is tantalizing, but in fantasy, Simmons is No. 55 on the Player Rater, outside my top 20 in the rankings and I do not think he is a wise buy-low option.
I could be in the minority here, but I think new Portland Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony could average at least the 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds he did in 10 games for the 2018 Houston Rockets. He was better for Oklahoma City a year before that. It might take time for him to earn the minutes, but look at Portland's set of forwards and there is clear opportunity. OK, so 13.4 and 5.4 with rough overall shooting is not much, but I have a team in a deep, weekly format and I added him in case. I play San Antonio Spurs guard Bryn Forbes in that deep league. Anthony has value.
I keep discussing Atlanta Hawks center Alex Len in this setting and it might seem ridiculous, but last week he totaled 38 points and 17 rebounds in consecutive road games in Phoenix and Denver and it had me wondering why he cannot do this more consistently. Then, in the two Los Angeles games, against better defenses, he totaled 8 points and 7 rebounds. There is something there and still believe a 12-point, 7-board option with a block and 3-pointer per game eventually emerges, at least some point in my lifetime.
Kawhi Leonard has missed five of the 14 LA Clippers games already, and I doubt he plays in more than 60 games this debut season. Oh, the Clippers can win the NBA title, but that is not what we are doing here. Leonard's stats are awesome, but now that Paul George is back, there is no need to push Leonard until April. Stop being surprised this is happening! I am amazed that other fantasy analysts treat Leonard as a top-10 player. Playing regularly matters.
I wish I had included Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic among the top-10 players in my initial rankings. This is LeBron James-level stuff right now, a future MVP. Not sure I would trade him for any one player in a dynasty format.
Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez has a huge body but the 10 blocks he boasts the past two games are because he is a smart and willing defender. This statistical version of Lopez, with fewer 3-pointers and points, is not as attractive in fantasy, and while I think he could average 10 boards per night, he knows he does not have to. Unselfish, valuable player but not a top-50 fantasy one.
It took a while, but New Orleans Pelicans shooter JJ Redick is in the starting lineup -- why was he not in it? -- and ready to post the numbers he did in Philly last season. I think it is foolish to add Chicago Bulls guard Coby White over Redick in fantasy. One of them is shooting 35.8% from the field. It is not Redick. Sure, neither defends, but the Pelicans need Redick to score 18 points a night.
Perhaps this leads a future blog entry, but Utah Jazz point guard Mike Conley is such a disappointment, and this is coming from someone that had him on his "Do Not Draft" list. Four assists per game and 36% shooting from the field is a joke.
Three players have hit more 3-pointers than Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns. Three players. These are MVP numbers but this team plays no defense. I would still take Towns over Anthony Davis in fantasy without a second thought and, yes, the fact that one of them will miss 20 games more than the other one is a major factor.