Percentages matter in fantasy hoops, and when you look at your team slumping in ninth place around Christmastime with the lowly field-goal and free-throw shooting the main culprit, it is often too late to change things. That is why I place a considerable amount of time in not only avoiding the bad shooters in drafts -- as mentioned in my "Do Not Draft" list -- but also in focusing on good shooters around whom a fantasy team can build a strong base.
Not everyone is going to shoot well, especially the smaller fellows who often provide the assists and 3-pointers, but when big men make their field goals and their free throws, sign me up!
We would all love to select the likes of Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Karl-Anthony Towns, but chances are only one member of your league(s) will get one of them. Let us talk about the middle rounds when one already has secured his/her stars to score the big points, pass out the assists and hit those 3-pointers. After the first five rounds, I tend to search for the rebounders who hit their shots and perhaps block a few. This season, after participating in numerous drafts already, I see there is some depth there.
Centers like Nikola Vucevic of the Orlando Magic, Jarrett Allen of the Brooklyn Nets, Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka of the Toronto Raptors, Enes Kanter of the New York Knicks, Dewayne Dedmon of the Atlanta Hawks and others might produce differing levels of reliability, scoring, rebounding and blocked shots, but it sure looks as if they will hit their shots. That matters.
It does not mean necessarily ignoring the likes of Dwight Howard, Steven Adams and Jusuf Nurkic if they slip too far, especially if you roster Stephen Curry or others who thrive from the line, but why place your team in a position in which it cannot contend in a category right away?
Everything is contextual in a fantasy draft, regardless of sport. I never enter a draft with a plan that is incapable of alterations depending on flow, and that means being open to best available in the early rounds. It could be a point guard or power forward early on, it does not matter. I want the numbers.
For purposes of this piece, I look at generalities in the numbers, but obviously it does matter if it is a standard roto format or points. That changes everything. Know your rules. I like point guards who hit 3-pointers, taller players who rebound, block shots and shoot well. After that, it is like a puzzle -- one that seems to keep finding Vucevic and Valanciunas in it.
Vucevic has annually intrigued me, and not only because I remain angry about how my favorite team ruined its wise draft-day decision to secure him by, a calendar year later, foolishly sending him packing in a large, controversial trade that returned a big man who never actually played for the 76ers.
Vucevic was an instant hit in Orlando, a nightly double-double option who learned how to hit his free throws and eventually provide 3-pointers as well. Not many players average more than a block, steal and 3-pointer per game. Vucevic keeps ending up on my rosters, as does Brooklyn's Allen, a 20-year-old about to see his minutes generously rise.
Anyway, here are myriad players who keep finding their way onto my teams, which subliminally tells me I like them and do wish to draft them. Sometimes it really is just that simple. We shall go in rough order of ESPN average live draft trends/ADP.
James Harden, PG/SG, Houston Rockets: Isn't he going like No. 2 overall? Yes, he is. I just want you to know that if I had the first pick, be it roto or points, he is my choice, even if we project someone else to be a bit better. It is not because of the beard. Carry on.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: A building block on several keeper teams of mine -- and yes, I was patient for several years -- I would choose him over teammate Ben Simmons not only because of the free-throw shooting, but if you can secure a shot-blocking option early, do it. Drafting Jonathan Isaac or Jakob Poeltl late for the blocks in roto will be a problem. I do like statistical versatility, but Simmons also does not provide any 3-pointers. This is a bit like baseball with stolen bases; if I can select in the early rounds players who shoot well from range and score and do other things, I do not need one-category helpers who offer little else like JJ Redick later on.
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards: No, he does not have the best field-goal percentage, but 20 and 10 options are oh so sweet to rely on, and this one hits 3-pointers. I see Wall slip in drafts because of injury concerns and think that makes little sense. Again, you can always select Rajon Rondo late, but he will not help across the board.
Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets: He is not defined as young, but the numbers are there. It is not fun to chase assists late in drafts, either, and you would be surprised how many point guards fall short of six per game. Give me Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe, Mike Conley and Jeff Teague as well. I might take three point guards with my first six picks.
CJ McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers: I can overlook the lack of assists and steals from a durable player -- that matters too -- who has averaged more than 20 points and two 3-pointers per game in three consecutive seasons.
John Collins, PF, Atlanta Hawks: Rookies concern me because they tend to be inconsistent, but this one looked like a future star last season, and he should get a big boost in minutes and provide nice totals in rebounding and blocks. Too many people draft solely off last season's numbers; some players, generally when they are young, can still blossom. Collins has potential for 10 boards and 1.5 blocks per night.
Tobias Harris, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: The one position I am finding that I have not been organically filling in the first eight or so rounds is power forward, because I seem to be missing out on the awesome options, and I do not see the depth afterward. In more than a few mock drafts, I have filled other spots and even utility with my fine-shooting centers, and then search for a power forward. Chicago Bulls sophomore Lauri Markkanen was one of my favorite picks, and I was reaching for him before the elbow injury, because one can procure 3-pointers from this position, and sometimes one needs to. Harris goes earlier than Markkanen would have, of course, but he has great range, and I think he will outperform expectations. I still take Markkanen in the final rounds because I can be patient and wait until Thanksgiving if necessary.
Jamal Murray, PG, Denver Nuggets: The assists actually started coming in the second half of the season, five per game in April. He already hits 3-pointers and nearly all his free throws. I love this player as a third point guard, if he is around after the top 60 selections.
Myles Turner, C, Indiana Pacers: Good enough to be a what, second-rounder in last season's drafts? And now, after he failed to improve at the ripe old age of 21, he falls to the eighth round? The same massive upside exists if he gets the usage back.
Markelle Fultz, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: He can shoot now. Watch him start and average 12 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, even alongside Simmons. So much upside here.
Ryan Anderson, PF, Phoenix Suns: As late-round picks with 3-point upside go, Anderson enters a nice opportunity to reprise his numbers of two seasons ago in Houston. Those were worth a late-round pick.
Others late: Marcin Gortat, C, LA Clippers; D'Angelo Russell, PG, Brooklyn Nets; Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons; Jerami Grant, SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder; Brook Lopez, C, Milwaukee Bucks; Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, Sacramento Kings; Mohamed Bamba, C, Orlando Magic