Perhaps you are old enough to remember when the great Jason Kidd entered the NBA as a 21-year-old passing demon out of Cal for the 1994-95 Dallas Mavericks, going No. 2 overall in the draft. Kidd was an instant hit, generating nightly highlight reels, winning top rookie honors and making his first All-Star appearance as a sophomore. He went on to have a long career of triple-doubles that ultimately resulted in his entering the Basketball Hall of Fame, an honor officially bestowed upon him a few weeks ago.
The thing is, I never found Kidd as much fun to roster and rely on in a fantasy basketball league as others. That's because while it certainly was awesome to glean so many assists, steals and rebounds from one point guard, and, at times in his prime, he scored nicely for the position, he could not shoot.
I am not being facetious. Kidd shot precisely 40 percent from the field during 18 seasons, and to me, that awful drag in that critical fantasy category overshadowed much of the good. Kidd was also not much of a scorer most of the time, so that was another issue to consider in constructing a fantasy roster.
Well, Los Angeles Lakers
Oh, he is also 20 years old and figures to improve, but for those looking for immediate gratification in 2018-19 drafts as opposed to dynasty formats, Ball is a dangerous investment not only in the first five rounds but overall. He shot an atrocious 36 percent from the field as a rookie and -- get this -- 45 percent from the free throw line. He rarely qualified to go to the line, but still, that is awful and an indication there is much lacking for this young player.
Ball, like Kidd, is a gifted passer with exceptional court vision and, for a point guard, is a strong rebounder as well. There will be many triple-doubles in his future, I have no doubt. The ESPN Player Rater, lest you wonder, loved Kidd in his day and Ball last season because he contributed in every counting statistic, including, for a point guard, blocked shots. Ball thrives defensively and should pile on the steals for years. What he cannot do, as I mentioned, is shoot the basketball well, and this will hamper his ability to score too. In that sense, he is a liability in fantasy nearly as much as he aids.
Meanwhile, the addition of LeBron James will do wonders for the Lakers in their entirety, but I do not see him sharing much in the assist department. Sure, the Cavaliers of recent seasons did not roster someone like Ball, but still, LeBron has the ball in his hands. What he needs is shooters around him. Ball is not afraid to try, but he was arguably the worst shooter in the league last season, and now he likely loses assists and perhaps, if defenses can ignore him on the outside, playing time.
Rajon Rondo signed with this club as well. Even if we give Ball a 40 percent field goal percentage and he becomes Andre Drummond from the line, this is a player with baggage, and we are not talking about his, you know, attentive father.
So as we embark on another fantasy basketball season, it is my fortunate role to share with you a list of players I will not be drafting to my teams, a "Do Not Draft" list, if you will. (There will be a "Do Draft" list next week as well!) Most of the time the context of this title gets lost on people, and they think I hate the player. I do not hate Lonzo Ball or anyone on this list. This is about fantasy basketball only, and most of the time there is a proper round in a draft for any renowned top-100 player.
In the case of Ball, I am not so sure that place exists for me, because that field goal percentage is going to be a major problem, and we do not want him fouled and striding to the line either. Watching him perform is a joy, really, but watching that field goal percentage is not, and it ruins it for fantasy purposes for me.
Anyway, enough of dumping on one fellow. Let us dump on others as well.
Dwight Howard, C, Washington Wizards: He led this blog entry a calendar year ago, and most people would say I was completely wrong about him. Well, it is all about context and what round you needed to choose him. The journeyman raised his scoring, and the rebounding and blocks remained strong, though the once-awesome field goal percentage fell to 55 percent, which is still tremendous. The problem is the free throw percentage. It always has been an issue because Howard visits the line quite a bit, and misses many. Unlike with Ball, a fantasy manager can choose Howard and mitigate the free throw anchor to a degree, but there are myriad rebounders who do not hurt you in that category, and now contribute in 3-pointers as well.
Lou Williams, G, LA Clippers: He has been awarded top-sixth-man honors in two of the past four seasons, which is awesome for him but not especially relevant to our game. We deal in sheer numbers, and Williams seems unlikely to get quite the same opportunity to score and pass this season after averaging a crazy (for him) 22.6 PPG and 5.3 APG in 2017-18, buoyed by starting 19 games. Williams averaged 17.5 PPG the season prior to that and 15.5 PPG when he first won the award. He has averaged 3.1 APG for his career. Do not get caught up in the first seven rounds relying on a player soon to turn 33 coming off a career season.
Blake Griffin, F, Detroit Pistons: Generally an asset in field goal percentage, Griffin decided to add 3-point shooting to his game, and it tanked his field goal percentage. Not a shocking development, really. Griffin is a gifted passer for a forward but seems disinterested in rebounding, and the trade from the Clippers to Pistons further abated that statistic, since Drummond rarely shares the boards. The biggest issue for Griffin, however, is durability, as in he lacks it. It has been five seasons since he suited up more than 67 times. Hey, after Round 5, sign me up, but that is obviously not happening.
Robert Covington, F, Philadelphia 76ers: A strong defender of numerous positions, Covington hits 3-pointers and is among the leaders in steals -- and fantasy managers like those. The problem is the 76ers have better 3-point shooters to rely on, especially when Markelle Fultz emerges (and he will), but this is also an inconsistent player. Covington shot worse than 39 percent from the field in four of the seven months last season. He rebounds a bit and the steals are great, but there will be times he drives you crazy. I cannot view him as a top-50 fantasy option.
Ricky Rubio, G, Utah Jazz: We appreciate the mild uptick in scoring and career-best field goal percentage (still bad), but we draft Rubio for the assists, and a shocking 5.3 per game, perhaps due in part to this slow offense, simply does not cut it. If you draft Rubio as one of your top point guards, you do not get enough of anything except the steals, and things are likely to get worse before they improve again.
Zach LaVine, G, Chicago Bulls: Do not judge him too harshly from his truncated season, as any ACL tear is tough to return from at an immediately high level. But even when healthy, LaVine is largely one-dimensional for fantasy: He scores. Even if we predict that he tops 22 points per night and hits 3-pointers, well, that is about it for him. In Rounds 8 or 9, I am in. In the first five rounds, like most of the fellows on this list, it is too early. Minnesota's Andrew Wiggins deserves attention for the same predicament, really. We need more than scoring, and it is not even great scoring anymore.
Tyreke Evans, G/F, Indiana Pacers: What a fantastic return to relevance! It had been several lost seasons for the brittle Evans. Now he is a Pacer, and it seems unlikely he can give them the same level of scoring and durability. As with Williams, do not chase a surprising season.
Carmelo Anthony, F, Houston Rockets: He was featured on this list a year ago, and things are not going to get better this season. He is not worthy of a top-100 pick in fantasy basketball. Not close.
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Golden State Warriors: A fantastic player before he wrecked his Achilles and perhaps a dominant force again as soon as 2019-20, Cousins might not even play in an NBA game until the Super Bowl, at the earliest. His major injury occurred in January 2018. The Warriors, incidentally, are loaded and know they can cruise to the playoffs, so do not expect big minutes from Cousins until the All-Star break, and he will not be producing monster numbers with the talent around him. This is a role player for one season. In the final rounds, if you have the patience (or an IR spot) to wait for literally months, go for it. In the first half of the draft, no way.