Welcome back to another edition of the Insider cheat sheet, our weekly roundup of crucial fantasy basketball information taken from ESPN's group of NBA Insiders.
Every Friday throughout the season, we'll provide a rundown of the most crucial bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- including Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level.
Here's what our experts are saying about the week ahead.
Making sense of Chris Paul's hot start
There's no doubt that Chris Paul is among the best players in the NBA. After all, we had CP3 as the No. 8 fantasy asset entering the season and expected him to put up major numbers for the Clippers. But this start? I don't think many saw it coming.
Paul, currently the No. 3 overall player on the ESPN Player Rater, leads the NBA in PER and is shooting a career-high 45.8 percent from beyond the arc. The latter has allowed him to hit 4.9 3-pointers a contest.
What's the biggest reason for his increase in production? It could be the Lasik surgery he had over the summer.
"I like to think that I have something to do with it," Paul said when asked if he really believes Lasik is the reason for his hot start. "But it might be. I do see a lot better than I did."
Insider Kevin Pelton looked closer (pun intended) into the impact the surgery could have on a player's performance. He admits that while it clearly does benefit their ability to see the floor and rim, Paul's early-season success is more random than anything else.
"The more likely explanation for Paul's fast start is that, well, it's the start," Pelton says. "Paul had a 12-game stretch last January where he shot 50 percent from 3-point range (30-for-60), but it didn't attract as much attention in the middle of the season.
"Though such hot and cold streaks are typical throughout the year, the human brain has been hardwired by evolution to seek a cause -- be it Lasik, a players-only meeting or extra shooting practice -- instead of accepting them as randomness."
This leads me to believe that Paul could be a great sell-high player, especially with the major haul you can receive. There's almost no shot, based on his past history, that his efficiency will remain that high throughout the season. He's going to come back to earth, and you'd rather that happened on someone else's roster than yours.
Take your pick: Parker or Wiggins?
"Will Andrew Wiggins have a better career than Jabari Parker?" That was the question on everyone's mind entering the 2014 NBA draft. Both players were neck-and-neck in terms of high school recruiting rankings and had productive careers at both Kansas and Duke, respectively.
We're now three seasons into their NBA careers. Who would you rather have? Kevin Pelton and Chad Ford debated that for this year and into the future for ESPN Insider. Both see more potential from the young Minnesota wing. "I actually think Wiggins has exceeded scouts' expectations as a scorer," Ford says. "Remember, the knock from the media and from scouts was that Wiggins was too passive offensively. He wasn't selfish or aggressive enough. At the age of 21 he's already a top-10 scorer in the league (averaging 26.3 points per game) and just hung a career-high 47 points on the Lakers on Sunday night. Even more surprising, Wiggins is shooting a red-hot 55 percent from 3."
Pelton agrees.
"Parker is looking as if he has the potential to be an All-Star someday. But I still see Wiggins as having a higher ceiling and more upside, assuming that at some point he brings his considerable athletic talents to the boards and the defensive end -- something I do think Thibs will eventually demand and get from him."
Pelton, however, writes that we must be wary of how long Wiggins will put up scoring numbers like this.
"It's safe to say Wiggins' shooting is going to regress. The confidence interval on a 31-shot sample like Wiggins currently has from 3 is about 18 percent in either direction. (Which, I suppose, does mean he could really be a 70 percent shooter. But probably not.)
"Beyond that, Wiggins has kept increasing his usage rate, which now ranks 14th in the league at 30.8 percent. He's also drawing more fouls than ever, improving what has probably been his best NBA skill."
Similar to what I said about Chris Paul, it may make sense to explore trade opportunities for Wiggins. Remember, he shot 31 percent and 30 percent from 3-point range each of the last two seasons. Now it's better than 50? I can see an improvement, but he's going to have that number drop come the end of the season. Wiggins only rates as our No. 42 overall player based on scoring being his only elite attribute. He's a sure-fire sell-high candidate.
Will Thompson improve? What will Embiid look like with no minutes restriction?
Amin Elhassan, a former NBA front-office executive and ESPN Insider, recently wrote his first fantasy story in a "Fact or Fiction" format. Which current trends or player performances are set to last all season? Who, right now exceeding expectations, is likely to return to form?
Here are some of the highlights that would benefit fantasy players the most.
Klay Thompson has never shot under 40 percent from 3-point range. This will be the year it happens.
"Fiction. Thompson started the season on an uncommonly cold streak, shooting 11-for-53 from 3-point range, good for less than 21 percent. Since Nov. 8, Thompson has rediscovered his touch from the outside, connecting on a blistering 15-of-30 from long distance, so I'd be surprised if he isn't well on his way to 40 percent by New Year's."
Joel Embiid will average 20 points and 10 rebounds once he's off his minute restriction.
"Fiction for two reasons. First, there's a strong likelihood he'll never be off the minutes restriction. Whether he plays 24 or 44 minutes, he almost certainly cannot impact Philadelphia's prospects, and the Sixers rightfully have a long-term view on what constitutes success or failure for Embiid. Secondly, despite averaging nearly 12 rebounds per 36 minutes, he still has to fight cannibalization from two other strong rebounders in Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes."
Myles Turner will finish the season with a higher spot on the Player Rater than Paul George.
"Fact. Turner's game is growing by leaps and bounds, and rightfully so, so is his role. Factor in that bigs are almost always more efficient (due to the types of shots they get and the weaker caliber of competition at their position), plus the relative ease with which it is possible to rack up other stats easily influenced by height (rebounds, blocks), and it's easy to see that Turner is almost guaranteed to have a more efficient season than George, who has the burden of being the team's main offensive option, which requires a large volume of shots."