Welcome to the first edition of "Fantasy Fact or Fiction." With the NBA season now nearly a month in the books, we turned to former front office executive and ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan for his take on some of today's biggest storylines. Which early trends are set to last? Which disappointing players are likely to turn it around?
Use answers to the following six statements to better bolster your fantasy prospects going forward.
Andrew Wiggins is going to shoot better than 40 percent from 3-point land for the first time in his three-year career.
Fiction, but barely.
Wiggins has never shot higher than 31 percent from downtown for his career, so a better than 10 percent increase from one year to the next is highly unlikely, with improvements generally showing a more gradual climb. But it's hard to ignore the fact that he has shot well from deep nearly every game, so I wouldn't be surprised if he flirted with almost 40 percent shooting without actually ever reaching that threshold.
Klay Thompson has never shot under 40 percent from 3-point range. This will be the year it happens.
Fiction.
Thompson started the season on an uncommonly cold streak, shooting 11-for-53 from 3-point range, good for less than 21 percent. Since Nov. 8, Thompson has rediscovered his touch from the outside, connecting on a blistering 15-of-30 from long distance, so I'd be surprised if he isn't well on his way to 40 percent by New Year's.
DeMar DeRozan will finish the season with the top scoring average in the NBA.
Fiction, again barely.
DeRozan will certainly be among the top 3-5 in scoring this year, as he's done a fine job of improving the things he's already good at: He's getting to the free throw line more than 14 times per 100 possessions and converting when he gets there at an 82 percent clip. He's also doubling down on midrange shots, attempting more 10-to-16 footers than ever in his career and knocking down an astounding 60 percent on them. But ultimately, the availability of other talent on this roster means he has less of a chance to dominate scoring than guys like James Harden or Russell Westbrook, who also carry the added bonus of being their respective team's primary ball handlers.
Joel Embiid will average 20 points and 10 rebounds once he's off his minute restriction.
Fiction for two reasons.
First, there's a strong likelihood he'll never be off the minutes restriction. Whether he plays 24 or 44 minutes, he almost certainly cannot impact Philadelphia's prospects, and the Sixers rightfully have a long-term view on what constitutes success or failure for Embiid. Secondly, despite averaging nearly 12 rebounds per 36 minutes, he still has to fight cannibalization from two other strong rebounders in Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes.
James Harden will lead the NBA in assists.
Fact.
Harden has always been a good passer, but two things have helped accelerate his assist numbers this season. First, being officially named point guard has put him in a more quick-strike mentality in terms of finding teammates. Mike D'Antoni's system is predicated on ball movement and quick decision-making, and by being a willing passer earlier in the clock, it has made defending Harden that much more difficult. Second, the improvement in the caliber of supporting cast helps tremendously; no longer is Harden passing to streaky shooters at the end of clocks for bail outs. Instead, he's got reputation shooters like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. All this, and factoring in he currently has an almost 3 assist per game lead over the next closest contender, gives us good confidence that he'll end up with the assist title.
Myles Turner will finish the season with a higher spot on the Player Rater than Paul George.
Fact.
Turner's game is growing by leaps and bounds, and rightfully so, so is his role. Factor in that bigs are almost always more efficient (due to the types of shots they get and the weaker caliber of competition at their position), plus the relative ease with which it is possible to rack up other stats easily influenced by height (rebounds, blocks), and it's easy to see that Turner is almost guaranteed to have a more efficient season than George, who has the burden of being the team's main offensive option, which requires a large volume of shots.