I'm a three-category maven: music, film and sports. I've long been fascinated by hot streaks in all three areas.
Paul McCartney often speaks of 1966-67 (Revolver/Sgt. Pepper/Magical Mystery Tour) as being his "hot period." I'd add 1973, the year of Band on the Run and "Live and Let Die." Nearly all of the 25 songs he primarily wrote and recorded across those three years comprised about a third of his set at Oldchella last month. I paid a ton of money to see him play.
The human mind curates a well-lit, shatterproof-glass display case for our personal hot streaks. As we age, and our personal mean increasingly solidifies, it becomes easier to identify the eras when we really had things going.
As an early-pubescent power forward, I had a four-game hot streak in seventh grade in which I averaged 12 points per game -- double my PPG average for that era. (I was more of a Laimbeer-esque instigator). This streak was largely based on my ability to hit a shot from one spot on the court at the end of a certain designed play. For four games, I hit that shot nearly every time. Then I regressed to the mean. Two years later, I was out of basketball and in Pirates of Penzance.
What does all this have to do with you?
Plenty.
Because it's my job to help you frame fantasy production in relative terms.
Over the first month of the season, we tend to overreact to strong starts. This overreaction becomes pronounced when it comes to point production and field goal percentage performance.
One stat I like to use when taking someone's shot-making temperature is effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Effective field percentage accounts for the extra point generated by a successively converted 3-pointer.
It's calculated like this: (2pt FGM + 1.5 x 3PT FGM / FGA)
The average NBA eFG is right about 50 percent (Monta Ellis). Elite eFG% starts around 55 percent (Rodney Hood). Top-shelf eFG% starts around 60 percent (Clint Capela).
I'm wizened. I have traded for Raef LaFrentz at 3 a.m. And I am here to tell you which hot-shooting starts indicate a season-long trend ... and which are bound for regression.
(For perspective purposes, I'm supplying career eFG%, last season's eFG% and current eFG%.)
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors
Career eFG%: .519 2015-16 eFG%: .569 Current eFG%: .618
It's not an obscure topic, but I am obsessed with how Durant has adapted to the Warriors' offense.
So far, Durant has provided a rough approximation of his Oklahoma City fantasy production (17.75 player rater points in 2015-16, 16.97 player rater points in 2016-17). All despite averaging his lowest usage rate (26.9) since 2009.
Durant's doing it all via efficiency. And it's not all coming from where you'd expect.
One would assume Durant is simply lighting it up from downtown via the extra space provided by Steph Curry and company. But Durant's current .404 3-point percentage is basically on par with his 3-point percentage since 2011.
Plus his volume of 3-point attempts is markedly down (only 4.7 attempts versus 6.7 in 2015-16), which would normally lead to a drop in eFG%. Yet Durant is currently posting a career-high-busting .618 eFG% because of a boost in 2-point production.
Durant is hitting a career-high 62 percent of his 2-pointers (previous high: 57 percent). Seventy-four percent of his shots this season are 2-pointers. And the extra boost in attempts isn't coming from mid-range, where you'd expect streakiness.
Durant is getting more dunks and layups. The kind of shots one tends not to miss.
To date, a career-high 30 percent of Durant's attempts are coming inside of three feet. Fourteen percent of all of Durant's shot attempts are dunks. Durant is hitting 83 percent of his shots in the 0-3 foot range.
Maybe defenses learn to adjust to Durant's cuts. But I wouldn't bet on it. It looks like the Warriors' spacing has resulted in a permanent shift in Durant's shot selection.
Durant's eFG%: HOLD
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Career eFG%: .504 2015-16 eFG%: .497 Current eFG%: .538
Lillard is scoring at Iversonian levels (29.8 points per game). Here's the question with Lillard: Are we seeing a peak-year (age 26) rise in 3-point efficiency, reminiscent of Steph Curry?
No. We're not.
Like with Durant, Lillard is performing slightly below career-high levels in 3-point production. He's shooting 37 percent from downtown this season. In 2015-16, Lillard shot 37 percent from downtown. His volume of 3-point attempts (7.1) is down about 1 per game.
Lillard's eFG% boost is coming from inside the arc. He is hitting a career-high 52 percent of his 2-pointers.
Lillard has increased his attempts from 0-3 feet, just like Durant. However, only four percent of Lillard's attempts are dunks. Result: Lillard's percentage in this range is lower (.645).
Overall, Lillard has been more efficient from the floor because he's getting to the hoop with greater frequency. But the dramatic boost in Lillard's scoring (from 25.3 points to 29.7) is mostly coming from the other area that increases when players go to the hoop: free throw production.
Lillard has posted better than a 50 percent increase in free throw attempts (6.2 FTA to 9.6 FTA) over his 2015-16 average. And you probably know Lillard (like Curry) owns one of the best free throw percentages in the NBA (currently .913, career .873).
As long as Lillard can survive the increase in driving, there's no reason to believe he'll suffer a dramatic dropoff. As a matter of fact, his still-mediocre 3-point percentage suggests there's additional ceiling for the taking.
Lillard's eFG%: HOLD
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
Career eFG%: .458 2015-16 eFG%: .463 Current eFG%: .520
He's scoring 32.5 points per game! Over the past 10 games, DeRozan has been floating in rare Jordan-esque air.
DeRozan has never been a good 3-point shooter, though. Outside of last season, I'd volunteer that DeRozan -- by wing standards -- is a terrible 3-point shooter.
His career percentage? .283. This season? .263. He's contributing only 0.5 3-pointers a night.
So, where are those extra 9-10 points per night coming from?
Unlike Durant and Lillard, it's not from up close. Ninety-two percent of DeRozan's attempts are 2-pointers. Only 14 percent of those are coming from 0-3 feet. Only 22 percent are from 3-10 feet.
Instead, DeRozan has dramatically upped his mid-range-to-deep 2-point shot attempts. He's launching these shots -- eFG% killers -- at 1970s levels. Thirty-one percent of DeRozan's shots are coming from 16-21 feet. At present, he's hitting 51 percent of them!
DeRozan's career mark from 16-20 feet? Thirty-eight percent.
He can't keep this up. He's on the definition of a hot streak.
DeRozan's eFG%: SELL
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PG/SG/SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Career eFG%: .503 2015-16 eFG%: .520 Current eFG%: .535
I'm listing Antetokounmpo because he's an example of a player who has all kinds of room to grow in eFG%.
Fifty-one percent of Antetokounmpo's field goal attempts are from 0-3 feet. He's making 75 percent of those. Only 15 percent of his attempts come from behind the 3-point line (for good reason, as he's hitting only 19 percent of them).
As Antetokounmpo continues to put it all together, and his range expands, his efficiency will increase. It will be interesting to watch how his efficiency and volume shifts over the next couple of seasons.
Even within this season, Antetokounmpo should improve. He should up his 3-point percentage somewhere in the area of his career mark (27 percent).
Antetokounmpo's eFG%: BUY
George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz
Career eFG%: .519 2015-16 eFG%: .528 Current eFG%: .622
Hill's explosion is tougher to peg. A regression is expected. But Hill's situation is muddled by the fact that he's on a new team that's lacking a go-to veteran scorer. And he has shown flashes of this type of efficiency in the past (21.5 PER in 2014-15).
One other big factor in field goal performance? Contract year.
Hill is a free agent next summer. He has landed in a perfect spot to pad his numbers. If he stays healthy, Hill is in line for a career year. But age 30 would be a little late to suddenly morph into Steph Curry. I'll wager Hill's season will be a little closer to Darren Collison than Steve Nash.
And unfortunately, Hill isn't the kind of household name that tends to sell high in a trade. Instead, you're probably better off hanging onto him and keeping his overproduction (relative to his ADP) to yourself.
Hill's eFG%: SELL (but hold onto him)
P.S. My top musical hot streaks: Mozart 1790-91, Schubert 1827-28, Chopin 1838-39, Stephen Foster 1850-54, Sinatra 1953-57, Oscar Peterson 1956-58, Horace Silver 1959-61, Dylan 1963-66, Beach Boys 1965-66, The Kinks 1965-68, Magic Sam 1967-69, Otis Redding 1965-67, Velvet Underground 1967-68, Curtis Mayfield/Impressions 1968-1972, Elvis 1968-69, Nick Drake 1969-72, Donnie Hathaway 1970-73, Al Green 1971-73, Stevie Wonder 1971-74, Big Star 1972-75, Schoolhouse Rock 1973-75, Sex Pistols October 1976-March 1977
P.P.S. My top film-making hot streaks: Welles 1941-42, Hitchcock 1934-38, Preston Sturges 1941-44, Andrei Tarkovsky 1962-66, Russ Meyer 1965-70, Frederick Wiseman 1967-70, Altman 1970-75, Michael Ritchie 1969-76, Bob Fosse 1972-79 ... and I could marshal a winning argument that Quentin Tarantino has never made a bad full-length movie.