Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser, Kyle Soppe and ESPN NBA writer Ohm Youngmisuk.
When the 8-1 Cleveland Cavaliers host the 7-2 Toronto Raptors Tuesday evening, they will try to put a stop to the blazing-hot start DeMar DeRozan has had this season.
Thus far, he is averaging 34.0 points per game and has scored fewer than 32 points just once (23) in nine games. This pace surely isn't sustainable, but what do you think his PPG average will be by season's end -- and what do you think of his overall fantasy value?
Joe Kaiser: I remember when James Harden and DeRozan entered the same draft back in 2009, and the question at the time was which one would be the better NBA player? Most everyone sided with Harden (who was drafted No. 3), and when you fast-forward to the present day, Harden certainly has a lock on that honor. But being out here on the West Coast, where I watched a ton of Pac-10/12 hoops and saw a lot of DeRozan (who was drafted No. 9) at Southern California, I knew that DeRozan could score with the best of them. His midrange game stood out back then just as much as it does now.
Do I think that he'll end up at 34 PPG this season? No. Do I think he'll end up at 30 PPG? No. But only because of how difficult it is to hit that mark. Remember, Stephen Curry averaged "only" 30.1 PPG last season while making an NBA-record 5.1 3-pointers per game. DeRozan had never averaged more than 23.5 PPG in any of his first seven NBA seasons, and that career-high came just last year. It's unrealistic to think that he can add 10.5 PPG to his single-season high at this point in his career, and I expect his current minutes per game (37.1), field goal percentage (52.8 FG percentage) and usage rate (35.7) to regress to the mean in the months ahead. By season's end, I expect DeRozan to be at 26-27 PPG while serving as a secondary fantasy contributor in terms of rebounds, assists and steals.
Kyle Soppe: DeRozan is a scoring force in this league and this isn't anything new. He has averaged better than 20 PPG in each of the past three seasons and has done so with a remarkably predictable offensive repertoire that cannot be stopped. You've heard of death by a million paper cuts? For defenses, it's death by a million midrange jumpers that the analytics would suggest is a job well done by the defender. DeRozan will continue to score, but not at this level, as he is currently shooting 52.2 percent from 16-24 feet, well above his six-year average of 37.3 percent. I think that when all is said and done, he sets a new career-high with 25 points per game, but he is a sell-high player in fantasy circles right now. The points are nice, but DeRozan has never averaged more than 8.5 assists-plus-rebounds and the lack of 3-pointers hurts you in today's NBA. DeRozan is a very good player and capable of leading a Raptors run this postseason, but I'd test the market now and see what kind of haul you can get in return for the league's leading scorer.
Ohm Youngmisuk: DeRozan is playing at an MJ-like level, considering he was the first player since Michael Jordan (1986-87) to score at least 30 points in eight of his first nine games of the season. Considering that his game is Kobe-esque (check this pic out) and he loves to take and hit difficult contested midrange shots, DeRozan will see his scoring average dip. But he can still average a career-high 25 to 28 points per game this season. His confidence is soaring after his Olympic summer, and he picked up invaluable experience leading the Raptors to the Eastern Conference finals last season. It's amazing that he's scoring this much while totaling just 3 3-pointers thus far. THREE! And that is why his fantasy value is somewhat limited compared to the elite fantasy stars. You can count on points, free throws and steals with a decent amount of rebounds for a shooting guard, but you will have to find 3s elsewhere, and in today's fantasy landscape that is vital.