It's hard to say how many NBA-savvy fantasy gamers watch the NCAA tournament to start formulating thoughts on their next league draft. After all, they're embroiled in the postseasons of their current leagues, and the next draft is months away. But for those who do start to compile mental notes, the Ben Simmons versus Brandon Ingram debate is the most compelling, just as it is for personnel departments across the league. Unfortunately, with Simmons not in the tournament, they'll be watching the Big Dance for other reasons.
So before the madness overtakes us all, let's consider the draft's two top prospects in a fantasy context. Given the relative lack of consensus about who is the better prospect and the stylistic differences between the two (combine Ingram and Simmons into one player and you'd really have something), here is the question: Which player is more likely to have a major fantasy impact next season?
About rookies and impact
First, it must be noted that rookies are generally are not elite fantasy properties. According to my version of ESPN's Player Rater formula (the one that includes turnovers), the top-rated rookie this season is Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, who ranks 10th overall.
That is an exceptional rookie performance. The only other rookies in the top 100 this season are New York's Kristaps Porzingis (No. 39) and Denver's Nikola Jokic (No. 56). Last season, just two rookies cracked the top 100, and the season before that, there were none. Towns' ranking is the highest by a rookie since Stephen Curry was No. 7 in 2009-10. That, in turn, was the highest finish by a first-year player since Michael Jordan in 1984-85. In a typical season, your top rookie merits no more than a pick in the fourth-to-sixth-round range in a 10-team fantasy league.
Perhaps Simmons, Ingram or both will fit into more of a Towns mold than a typical rookie fantasy leader does. But expectations should be tempered.
The case for Simmons
In terms of overall, freshman-year statistics, Simmons has the edge in most categories. That's not surprising, given his well-deserved reputation as a box-score stuffer. Simmons has played a sort of point-center for LSU in the Tigers' most-used lineups, while Ingram has largely been a high-usage combo forward for Duke. Simmons is projected as a 4 at the NBA level, while Ingram is envisioned as a wing.
That makes sense when you look at their college rebound percentages. According to www.sports-reference.com/cbb, Simmons' 18.2 percent rebound rate dwarfs that of Ingram (11.1 percent). Rebounding is one of the most translatable skills between the NCAA and NBA levels, so even after accounting for positional differences, Simmons should have the decided edge. There is one caveat to that: If Ingram were to gain guard eligibility, the gap disappears.
Simmons' most dramatic advantage comes in the assist category, thanks to his well-publicized ability to create shots for teammates from the big-man positions. That skill is what generates comparisons to Golden State's Draymond Green. Which is great for his long-term potential, but it should be noted that it took some time before Green was trusted to orchestrate the Warriors' offense as frequently as he does now.
Simmons creates more offense from a usage standpoint as well, though the difference is negligible and perhaps nonexistent when you factor in supporting casts. The way those usage rates were compiled is more telling: Simmons was one of the best foul-drawers in the country. While Ingram was no slouch in that category, he was much more of a jump shooter than Simmons. Almost all players are more of a jump shooter than Simmons. Since Simmons does so much of his work in transition and off the dribble, he should have a higher raw field goal percentage, and he does.
The case for Ingram
Ingram shoots a very good percentage from deep and at a fairly high volume, but was up and down as a freshman. But he also gets to the line when he puts the ball on the floor and sports the block rate of a rim-protecting big man. Given his athleticism and slender body type, that mix of skills marks him as a prime wing prospect. What's more, those skills are why he's threatening to overtake Simmons as the draft's first pick. Ingram has a very playable toolkit according to today's NBA trends.
That's not to say Simmons doesn't, but you have to construct a roster around a non-shooting, playmaking big man to get the most of his talent. With Ingram, other than his need to develop his body, you feel like you could drop him into a meaningful role on most teams while hoping to eventually develop him into a featured performer.
Other intangible aspects of the comparison only matter to fantasy gamers in one respect: If Ingram is the more ready-to-win player, he'll get more initial playing time and, thus, more production. That said, while you have to consider these things, the fact is that both players are likely to end up on teams that will have little choice but to throw them into the fire right from the start.
The verdict
Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE has favored Simmons through the college campaign in terms of rookie-season projection. Team context will matter, of course. If either Simmons or Ingram were to end up on the Celtics, for example, playing time might be more difficult to secure that first season. Still, it's pretty hard to argue with Simmons' edge in pure production.
Beyond projection lies another question. Does either prospect have an edge in terms of playing style? In other words, do players like Simmons (non-shooter, big floor stats) tend to make an impact sooner than players like Ingram (acrobatic shooter and defender)?
To answer that in terms of fantasy, let's return to Player Rater. During the 3-point era, there have been 144 rookies to finish in the top 100 in bottom-line Player Rater. Since the most glaring difference between Simmons and Ingram is outside shooting, let's use frequency of 3-point attempts as our benchmark.
In our 144-rookie sample, 89 (62 percent) used fewer than 10 percent of their possessions with a 3-point shot. Of those, 11 (12.3 percent) still managed to reach the top 30 in overall Player Rater that first season. That includes a lot of multifaceted power forwards, including, most recently, players like Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett. While Towns mostly plays center for Minnesota, you can probably throw him in as a comparable rookie as well. So while floor spacing is more important in the NBA than ever, a team looking to develop players isn't going to be too concerned with Simmons' lack of shooting range. And, in fact, a team like the Sixers or Lakers could well stick Simmons in the post and run the offense through him.
Ingram, on the other hand, will likely be a fairly high-volume deep shooter as a rookie, if only because his lack of bulk will inhibit his ability to create shots inside the arc. Projecting his accuracy is difficult for a lot of reasons, but one reason to think it's even more of a wild card for him than it is for a typical rookie is that he's not an elite free throw shooter. Of our group of 144 top-100 rookies, you have 55 (38 percent) who were over that 10 percent threshold for 3-point attempts. Of those, just three (5.4 percent) finished in the overall top 30 in Player Rater. That's not to say that Ingram can't or doesn't excel at other things, but 3-point-heavy players don't generally end up as elite rookie producers.
For that reason, the verdict is Simmons.