I love the NBA playoffs, but it's a fantasy-free viewing. It's an odd yet enjoyable sensation. NBA playoff basketball has almost no impact on determining in-season fantasy value.
You're better served getting primed for the draft. And especially for free agency. Especially this summer's free agency.
The Summer of Durant is finally upon us.
As a Washington Wizards fan, I've been preparing for the Summer of Durant since the first Summer of LeBron James.
Regardless of where Kevin Durant lands, any prospective re-positioning of Durant's statistical gravitational pull will have massive fantasy ramifications.
Here's the thing. Max contract-quality free agents rarely retain their previous fantasy value when they switch teams.
Think about when James and Chris Bosh went to Miami. Or when James and Kevin Love went to Cleveland. Or when LaMarcus Aldridge went to San Antonio.
In every instance, the transplanted star's fantasy value took a hit.
The factors that drive a player's stats to max contract-status usually can't be duplicated in his new situation. Players at that rarefied level usually don't change addresses to find new ways to pad their stats.
They switch because they want a better chance to win. Since James went to the Miami Heat, the grouping of superstars has been en vogue. And grouping multiple stars depresses elite production.
Which brings us back to Summer of Durant. This summer's list of impact max free agents could include Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside. (I'm not mentioning James, who is probable to stay in in Cleveland ... but he has been sending distress signals of late).
Dwight Howard could possibly get there. So let's add Chandler Parsons and Pau Gasol to the list of max possibilities. Which means Nicolas Batum definitely deserves a max deal. We're not even talking restricted free agents like Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal.
Do all those players deserve max deals? It doesn't matter. It's simple supply and demand.
A lot of teams are going to have a ton to spend. Just about every other team could free up space via trade. (The prospective trade market is a whole other column).
Teams that marshal space for Durant -- and whiff -- will have to spend that money on someone to save face.
This is fantasy basketball. Let's fantasize. Let's picture some potential destinations and the fantasy ramifications therein.
Al Horford, PF/C
Prospective Destination: Boston Celtics
This move isn't speculation. It's already building up steam. Horford's diverse two-way skill set would be a perfect fit for Brad Stevens' system.
There are two issues. One is depth. As in the Celtics have too much of it. And they're about to add to it via Brooklyn's top-5 draft pick. Armed with that pick and cap space, the Celtics have a chance to perform some major upgrades.
Hopefully that involves the consolidation of value. They should deal depth for elites. Ever pull off a two-for-one deal? Danny Ainge needs to do three of those.
Right now, their big man rotation is a mélange of the OK to still-developing: Amir Johnson, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko. Even at max money, Horford isn't going to up his minutes, which are already at a career low 30.5 MPG.
Which brings us to issue No. 2. On the cusp of his age-30 campaign, and coming off an injury-marred 2014-15, Horford's numbers across the board are in decline. His 15.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game are his lowest averages since 2011-12 (another injury-marred season).
Horford is so skilled, he doesn't need to kill it in the volume categories to be productive. He's still a top-25 player. He should continue to perform up to his max numbers for several seasons to come.
Don't forget that by leaving Atlanta, he'll be leaving an equally fantasy-friendly system. In Boston, Horford will be fortunate just to equal his current, diminished production.
Prospective fantasy value: Downgrade
Dwight Howard, C
Prospective Destination: Milwaukee Bucks
A couple of weeks back, a rumor broke that Howard wanted to be dealt to the Bucks at the deadline, but Milwaukee demurred because they didn't want Howard as a rental.
So many Dwight Howard rumors circulated that it made one rumor fact; Howard is a goner in Houston.
Howard has put up a bounceback campaign. (A cynic would pronounce it a "contract push," but I'm no cynic.) He's upped his blocks and rebounds, and is averaging 14.8 points per game. And Howard needs blocks and boards to establish anything close to top-50 fantasy value.
Even in a bounceback campaign, Howard only rates 66th on the player rater. For the same reason I have never, ever rostered Dwight Howard. Not even Orlando-peak-production Dwight Howard. Because I don't believe in punting, and rostering Dwight Howard means taking a sledgehammer to your imaginary team's very real free throw percentage.
At least Howard nearly cracked 60 percent from the line in Orlando. In Houston, Howard's free throw shooting is re-approaching career lows (.491 in 2011-12). It's currently at .506 and dropping.
All that being said, if Milwaukee can deal Greg Monroe? I love the fit. Howard would be surrounded by young upside that could help mask his declining athleticism.
Prospective fantasy value: Hold
Pau Gasol, PF/C
Prospective Destination: Portland Trail Blazers
Gasol is coming off not just a bounceback season, but also something approaching a turn-back-the-clock campaign. His 17.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and (always gaudy-for-a-big) 4.1 assists have Gasol back in the top 20 on the player rater.
Gasol has been great in Chicago. So great that I hope he stays. But if he doesn't ... just imagine Gasol on the rapidly revamped Trail Blazers. Neil Olshey has done a great job in Portland, but they're dying for some veteran presence. Gasol would provide that and plug a hole up front, where Mason Plumlee hasn't quite cut it.
Prospective fantasy value: Hold
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF
Prospective Destination: Brooklyn Nets
Why would DeRozan leave a contender for a rebuild? I'm listing this to illustrate a point.
DeRozan is going to score max money from somewhere. But if a contender like Toronto isn't willing to max DeRozan out? That might be a red flag to other contenders, even contenders with max space.
Currently averaging 23.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, DeRozan is also having a career year. (Again, a cynic would say a "contract push"). His 28.7 usage rate is also a career high, and points to the type of volume powering his stats.
To be fair, DeRozan is also an underrated contributor in free throw shooting category (averaging .844 and a supersized 8.7 attempts per game).
But his performance from the field is merely mediocre. He still relies on too many long jumpers. He's only hitting 33 percent of his 3s. That's why despite having a career year, DeRozan is barely cracking the top 40 on the player rater.
I hope DeRozan doesn't leave Toronto. They're a fun team to watch. But I could see DeRozan taking the mini-Melo route, bypassing a surefire winner to be the lead dog on a New York-based franchise.
As the No. 1 option on a low-expectations team, DeRozan would have the perpetual green light. He'd miss Kyle Lowry, but DeRozan is just entering his peak production.
Prospective fantasy value: Slight upgrade
Hassan Whiteside, C
Prospective Destination: Los Angeles Lakers
This is similar to the DeRozan-Raptors dynamic. Except in this case, the prospect of Whiteside leaving is very real. Whiteside's clashes with coach Erik Spolestra have been a major storyline in Miami.
Why would Miami be willing to use a young, prospective franchise center averaging 13.4 points, 11.7 rebounds and an ungodly, Manute Bol-esque 3.8 blocks per game? Who also shoots .605 from the field? All while only averaging 28.9 minutes a night?
Because they're terrified of getting locked into a highly probably max deal with a player presenting questionable intangibles.
The Lakers don't have that kind of problem. In recent seasons, the only area the Lakers have prospered is sheer, raw dysfunction. A lack of intangibles won't be an issue. For the Lakers to be The Lakers, they need a dominant center. Roy Hibbert doesn't count.
Prospective fantasy value: Slight upgrade
Mike Conley, PG
Memphis Grizzlies
Come on. He can't leave. Just pay the man, Mr. Wallace.
Nicolas Batum, SF
Washington Wizards
As the only Wizards fan I know, I'm not embarrassed to say I've lost sleep over the prospect of K.D.2 D.C. I've been having nightsweats about it for years. I've been writing about it unabashedly since 2012-13.
But in my heart of hearts, I don't think it's happening.
Which would still leave the Wizards with max space, a hole in their hearts, and a hole at the 3. Batum has also enjoyed a bounceback season. (Again, a cynic would say ...). Re-signing Bradley Beal and teaming up with Batum would make a lot of sense.
A starting five of John Wall, Beal, Batum, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat would be surefire playoff team. Not a championship contender, but in D.C., we've learned to never dream big.
Prospective fantasy value: Hold
LeBron James, SF/PF
Miami Heat
Surprise!
With all the dysfunction in Cleveland, there will be some rumors about a return until James re-signs with the Cavs. If he did decide to leave, a re-return after a re-Decision (which would be Decision Part III) to Miami would connect a lot of dots. That's a Marc Eaton-sized "if," but it is theoretically possible.
Prospective fantasy value: Hold
Kevin Durant, SF
Golden State Warriors
Is it really "Finals or Bust?" If so, I'm going to have to revise my previous ironclad opinion that Durant sticks in OKC, even if for just one more year.
If Durant decamps, it will be for a clearer path to the Finals. Which means two paths: the Eastern Conference or the Golden State Warriors. If Durant wants to get back to the Finals, he'll have an exponentially greater chance in the Eastern Conference, where his mere presence could turn any team this side of Philadelphia into a conference finalist.
Or he could just make the rumors reality and pair up with Steph Curry. Which would be epic. Mythic. And a bit of a fantasy buzzkill.
The Warriors at present achieve a delicate, historic symbiosis of supercharged fantasy value. They achieve this because they are undisputedly Curry's team.
Klay Thompson is a special player. He has the ball in hands a good amount of the time (usage rate 24.3) but he's never going to be a top-15 fantasy player running alongside Curry. Draymond Green is a top-15 player -- in fantasy and reality -- because he doesn't require a ton of touches to be productive (usage rate 19.6).
Curry's usage rate is 31.6. Kevin Durant's is 29.7. How is that going to balance out while preserving everyone's numerical superiority? And I know what you're saying "but Durant and Russell Westbrook" ... but no. Durant and Westbrook aren't surrounded by high-possession players like Thompson.
Look at the history of superduperstar trifectas. The numbers go down. Every time. This would be beyond explosive chemistry. It'd be nuclear fission. It'd be basketball played by new laws of physics.
It could also make James Harden the top player in fantasy basketball.
Prospective fantasy value: Downgrade