Welcome back to another edition of the Insider cheat sheet, our weekly roundup of valuable fantasy basketball information taken from ESPN's group of NBA Insiders.
Every Friday throughout the season we'll provide a rundown of the most crucial bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh, Kevin Pelton, David Thorpe, Bradford Doolittle and others -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level.
Here's what our experts are saying about the week ahead.
Overrated NBA players
Jeremias Engelmann, one of the creators of ESPN's real plus-minus statistic, wrote a piece for Insider earlier this week on the NBA's most overrated players. His list included Hassan Whiteside, Carmelo Anthony, Enes Kanter, Brandon Knight and Rajon Rondo. He wrote that despite having a very favorable public perception, these players are flawed when looking closer at their numbers.
Are his thoughts accurate when it comes to fantasy production? Yes and no. While reality and fantasy often intersect, an extremely valuable rotisserie player may not be as highly thought of on the court (and vice versa). Take Whiteside, for example.
"Whiteside seems more concerned about getting his individual block numbers up than keeping the opponent from scoring," Engelmann says. "Many times he will leave his man to 'help' a teammate and rack up a potential block, even if his teammate is in good defensive position."
The team aspect doesn't matter much in fantasy. Who cares that he let another player score on him? What matters is that he is concerned with individual numbers. As a result, despite what the advanced metrics say, he rates as ESPN's No. 22 overall fantasy player. He'll instantly give you a boost in blocks and rebounds.
Let's take a quick look at the other aforementioned players and answer, from a fantasy perspective, whether they are overrated. We can do this largely by looking at the recent midseason redraft.
Carmelo Anthony: The Knicks star is a scoring machine, averaging 21.2 points per game, and has been having one of the better rebounding seasons of his career (7.7 per game). That said, he doesn't provide a lot of 3-pointers (1.3 per game) and has seen his shooting efficiency dip in recent weeks (37.8 percent over the past 10 games). I'd say he's slightly overrated at this point considering he rates as our 39th-best player but was drafted 10 spots higher.
Verdict: Overrated
Enes Kanter: Despite what Engelmann wrote about Kanter's defensive issues, the big man is still putting up solid numbers offensively and doing so in an efficient manner. He wasn't even drafted in our midseason mock draft and is currently available in 21 percent of ESPN leagues. Kanter checks in at No. 72 overall on the Player Rater, making him a key bench option for your fantasy frontcourt.
Verdict: Underrated
Brandon Knight: Similar to Kanter, defense was a big issue for Engelmann when he looked at Knight's production in Phoenix. But that doesn't matter in fantasy. Knight is averaging 19 points a game on 42 percent shooting, while adding five assists and nearly four rebounds a contest. The Phoenix guard rates as our 47th overall player but was taken 55th overall in the latest mock (though some of it certainly had to do with a recent injury).
Verdict: Properly rated
Rajon Rondo: The Kings' point guard is a key fantasy player this season due to his ability to generate steals, and he provides more assists per game than almost any PG. His scoring is limited (and somewhat inconsistent), but if he produces elite numbers in steals and assists, your lineup will be fine. Rondo is rated 26th overall and was taken 26th overall. He's definitely not elite, but he is in that next group for fantasy purposes.
Verdict: Properly rated
Undervalued rookies
For fantasy basketball purposes, rookies don't tend to be major contributors (outside of, say, Karl-Anthony Towns). But that doesn't mean they can't be solid depth additions to your lineup. Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton got together this week to discuss the most surprising first-year NBA players, focusing on both their short- and long-term potential.
The top two names mentioned, Myles Turner and Nikola Jokic, are both valuable fantasy pieces.
Myles Turner | PF, C | Indiana Pacers
As the season has progressed, so has the development and court time for Turner. Over the past 10 games, the Texas product is averaging 15.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.6 blocks a game. He's shown glimpses of being a strong NBA stretch-4 down the road.
"He rebounds, he's already looking like a potentially elite shot-blocker, and a 31-point outburst against the Warriors followed a few nights later with a 25-point game against the Nuggets showed what he can do offensively," Ford said. "I ranked him No. 6 in our last rookie rank. But given his play lately, it's looking to me as if he should've gone No. 3 behind Towns and Porzingis."
I'd grab Turner now before others in your league do. He was barely owned earlier in the season but has seen his availability get smaller and smaller in recent weeks. Right now he's owned in 67.7 percent of leagues. Pelton pointed out his excellent field-goal percentage on long 2-pointers (45.1 percent on 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet), so his production could jump if he expands to behind the 3-point line.
Nikola Jokic | PF, C | Denver Nuggets
A second-round pick by Denver, Jokic has really come into his own as of late, averaging 13.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.6 blocks over his past five games. Insider Joe Kaiser wrote earlier this week that he eventually could be a top-50 player: "[His] numbers at this early age are impressive enough to justify keeping him in dynasty leagues and building around him in future seasons as long as he can keep this going."
And Pelton agrees:
"My nominee would be another versatile big man, Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets," Pelton said. "Jokic had impressive translated stats in Europe, but I was a little skeptical about his ability to produce at that level right away in the NBA because of scouts' concerns about his athleticism.
"It's safe to say we can put those to rest, at least offensively. Jokic is making 56.5 percent of his 2-point attempts and averaging a remarkable 3.5 assists per 36 minutes -- the most of any non-point guard in this year's rookie class. Jokic's creative ballhandling and passing have resulted in plenty of highlights."
Jokic is currently owned in only 60 percent of ESPN leagues. Similar to Turner, I'd grab him off the waiver wire if available to add post depth to your team. He's getting more and more minutes and clearly developing as an NBA big man. With top-50 long-term potential, Jokic is a prime stash-and-wait candidate.
Keep expectations in check for Rose, Love
When Tyronn Lue was named head coach of the Cleveland Cavaliers last week, word immediately spread that Kevin Love was set to see a production uptick. So far, so good. His field goal percentage is up from 41.3 percent to 49.4, and he is taking more shots (particularly 3-pointers) than before. But should fantasy owners immediately look to trade for him in Lue's offensive system?
Insider Bradford Doolittle says not so fast.
"My feeling is that we have to remember the pecking order (1. James, 2. Irving, 3. Love) and the fact that under Blatt, the Cavs had a top-five offense," Doolittle said. "In other words, it was working just fine. The play calls might change under Lue, but the player combinations are the same. Love will prove to be largely the same player for Lue as he has been since coming to Cleveland. Not for nothing, but that's a really good player."
His overall shot selection is improving, but as Doolittle says, the difference is minimal. I'd hold off on trading a key asset for Love, thinking he's going to become an elite fantasy player.
The same can be said for Bulls guard Derrick Rose, who has put up better scoring numbers in recent weeks. Rose has averaged 17.8 points on 44.3 percent shooting and 3.5 assists since Dec. 16. That said, he hasn't been efficient, and he's not getting to the line or hitting 3-pointers nearly enough (only one attempt in his past four games!). Doolittle isn't convinced the increase in scoring numbers makes him a better overall fantasy player.
"Rose's best weapon at this point is his floater, and he has used it well," Doolittle says. "The rest of his game remains a shadow of what it was, and it's hard for me to see his increased scoring average as an indicator of an upward trajectory. I hope I'm wrong about that, by the way. But until we see Rose not only scoring but getting looks for his teammates and, most importantly, helping his team outscore opponents, we can't say he has turned any kind of a corner."
Getting back to our first topic, Rose is what I would call overrated for fantasy. He's owned in 93 percent of ESPN leagues despite being our 49th overall point guard. I would look to trade him now while he's in the spotlight.