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Why Nikola Jokic boasts top-50 fantasy potential

Nikola Jokic has scored 15 points in six of the 10 games he has started since Jan. 17. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

When you talk about NBA teams with the most young talent, the conversation never begins with the Denver Nuggets. That's a tier reserved for teams like Milwaukee and Minnesota.

But the Nuggets aren't as far behind as some might think, and the 2014 draft is a big reason why.

Following the disastrous draft-day trade of Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick) to Utah in 2013, the Nuggets rebounded beautifully a year later by dealing Doug McDermott -- the 11th overall pick -- along with lottery bust Anthony Randolph to Chicago for Gary Harris (No. 19 pick), Jusuf Nurkic (No. 16 pick) and a second-rounder in 2015. Then, at pick No. 41, they snagged Nikola Jokic in round two.

That's a haul of three players under the age of 22 with a good chance to play a long time in the league.

Harris, 21, is the team's shooting guard of the future, already averaging 30.5 minutes a game in his second season.

Nurkic, 21, averaged 6.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in only 17.8 minutes per game as a rookie and entered this season as the clear-cut starting center going forward.

And then there's Jokic, the youngest of the Nuggets' vaunted 2014 draft class who, at age 20, has burst on the scene in recent weeks and, perhaps, forced the Nuggets to change the way they approach their frontcourt going forward.

A promising but inconsistent player who started when Nurkic was injured early in the season before moving to the bench, Jokic was inserted back into the starting lineup on Jan. 17 and everything changed.

In the 10 games since, he has scored at least 15 points six times and pulled down double-digit rebounds four times. He also has averaged an impressive 2.9 assists and two steals per game during that span, helping him emerge as a legitimate top-100 fantasy threat.

That isn't even factoring in the impressive shooting percentages (54.2 FG, 77.5 FT, 36.1 3PT) of the 6-foot-10, 250-pounder.

Needless to say, Jokic has made a faster impact than just about anybody could have predicted -- even the Nuggets.

"The biggest thing is probably how effective he's been as a rebounder," ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton said. "That was the weakest part of his translated performance in Europe, which suggested he would be a high-percentage shooter and a strong passer for a big [man]. His steal rate has also been better."

Earlier this week following a career game by Jokic -- 27 points and 14 rebounds in a shocking blowout win over Toronto -- Nuggets coach Michael Malone heaped enormous praise on the big man.

"I mean you can talk about some of these very young bigs who are very talented: the kid in New York, Minnesota, Philly, I don't know any of their names," Malone told reporters, via BSN Denver's Harrison Wind. "I know this kid's name, though. I know Nikola Jokic and I wouldn't trade him for anybody in the world. He's a special young man, he's a special young talent and he's only going to get better as he continues to get stronger, learn the NBA, finishing around the basket, defensively. But he's a heck of a young talent, I give a lot of credit to [general manager] Tim Connelly and the front office for finding him and making him a part of the organization."

Consider me a believer. In fact, I jumped at the chance to draft Jokic at No. 83 in the ESPN Midseason Fantasy Basketball Redraft, held earlier this week.

That being said, any time a big man seemingly comes out of nowhere to emerge as a big-time fantasy threat, much how Jokic is now and like Cole Aldrich and Hassan Whiteside did in the middle of last season, you always have to think about the staying power. Is this going to last?

I mean, Jokic's numbers at this early age are impressive enough to justify keeping him in dynasty leagues and building around him in future seasons as long as he can keep this going.

So how good is he? Is he this season's diamond in the rough like Whiteside last season? Or is he nothing more than fool's gold in the heart of the Rocky Mountains like Aldrich ended up being?

Pelton raised some good points, and it's worth considering each of them.

"I don't think he's this good but generally Jokic has been productive whenever he's gotten minutes," he said. "He's averaging 17.4 points and 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes so he would be a nightly double-double threat if we could count on him playing 30 minutes a night. A big key is the Nuggets have generally been playing teams with traditional frontcourts. Whether he can stay on the floor against smaller opponents will determine how much of this carries over."

That's not all. As happy as the Nuggets are to have scored both Jokic and Nurkic the year after whiffing on Gobert, it's no easy task to juggle playing time for two talented young players who would each undoubtedly start in many other places around the league. For now, it's Jokic in the starting five with Nurkic on the outside looking in, but there's no guarantee this will continue in the weeks and months and years ahead.

At some point, maybe soon. Jokic will struggle. What happens then?

"It's definitely an issue," Pelton said, "because I'm not sure they'll ever be able to play together against all but the biggest, slowest frontcourts. So I wouldn't be stunned if they looked to move Nurkic if he demonstrates he's back to full health.

"The Nuggets have something of the poor man's version of the issue the Philadelphia 76ers face with Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. Of course, when you drafted those guys 16th [Nurkic] and 41st [Jokic], respectively, that's a good problem to have."

As you can see, Jokic doesn't come without risks -- both now and in the future -- but he also has huge potential at the center position and a real shot at being a top 50 fantasy option in another year or two.