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Pitchers to stream on Monday
Dodger Stadium will be a welcome site for Emmet Sheehan after struggling in a couple of road affairs, including last time out at Coors Field. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a series with playoff implications for both clubs. The Reds sport an average offense facing right-handers and will incur a park downgrade from hitter friendly Great American Ballpark.
Max Scherzer registered a quality start in each of his past five outings. He's in a good spot to extend the streak at home with the Toronto Blue Jays entertaining the Minnesota Twins. Scherzer has a 2.25 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over this span, fanning 28 in 32 innings. The Twins offense has struck out at a generous 26% clip away from home over the past month.
A 4.21 xFIP compared to a 2.53 ERA portends a correction for Noah Cameron, but it's more likely to come against an offense more potent than the Chicago White Sox, though the rookie lefty must contend with being away from comfortable Kauffman Stadium when the Kansas City Royals visit the South Side. The White Sox offense is a tick below average facing left-handers, while fanning at an above average clip.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
Avoiding Spencer Strider for a matchup with the Miami Marlins seems far-fetched, but the Atlanta Braves righty is in a rut while the pesky Marlins aren't the pushover lineup of previous seasons. In three August starts, Strider's ERA is 15.43 with a 2.83 WHIP. He's been victimized by a high BABIP and HR/FB, but he's also not dominating like in the past.
Tanner Bibee is one of the season's biggest disappointments on the mound and he's displaying no signs of salvaging his season with a strong finish. He's recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his previous three efforts, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. However, nine walks in that stretch render Bibee too risky when the Cleveland Guardians open a home set with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Bryce Miller was roughed up in his return from the IL, yielding four runs in five frames to the Philadelphia Phillies. His second start since recovering from elbow inflammation is at pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park, but he's still a risk when the Seattle Mariners take on the potent San Diego Padres.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.81 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.01 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.81 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.52 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.02 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
August has been unkind to J.T. Ginn as evidenced by a 7.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. He's punched out 19 in 16 frames this month, but he's also walked 10 while issuing four home runs. Pitching in Sacramento has not helped, and that's where he'll be when the Detroit Tigers open a road set with the Athletics. Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Zach McKinstry are the primary targets in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Detroit Tigers LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .355 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox batters vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .263 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Coby Mayo | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.97 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the fifth-best park in baseball for RHB home runs.
Ryan Mountcastle | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Ceddanne Rafaela | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.60 EV
One reason to bet this: My projected version of expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.1) implies that Rafaela has been unlucky this year with his 18.0 actual HR/600.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Hunter Greene | UNDER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.20 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Dodger Stadium as the fifth-worst venue in the game for strikeouts.
Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 6.5 K (-130)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.58 EV
One reason to bet this: The Diamondbacks have six hitters in their projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Woodruff in today's game.
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.45 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 9.69 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.30 -- a 0.39 K/9 difference.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Pirates @ Cardinals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $3.68 EV
D-Backs @ Brewers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $3.29 EV
Angels @ Rangers | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.38 EV