Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 26, 2025, 07:21 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.8	Jesus Luzardo	L	@NYM	78.9%	-115	8.5	58%	6.1	1.7	7.0
12.8	Dylan Cease	R	@SEA	91.6%	-115	7.5	59%	5.7	2.2	6.7
12.8	Sean Manaea	L	PHI	28.3%	-105	8.5	42%	5.7	1.9	5.9
12.1	Matthew Boyd	L	@SF	87.4%	-145	7.5	61%	5.6	1.9	5.1
12.0	Hunter Brown	R	COL	99.1%	-340	7.5	66%	5.6	2.2	6.0
10.5	Luis Castillo	R	SD	93.4%	-105	7.5	41%	5.9	2.6	5.3
10.3	Luis Gil	R	WSH	32.0%	-180	8.5	60%	5.3	2.3	5.6
9.9	Bailey Ober	R	@TOR	55.1%	+140	8.5	47%	5.6	2.6	5.2
9.7	Chris Bassitt	R	MIN	65.2%	-165	8.5	53%	5.8	2.9	5.6
9.6	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@TEX	68.4%	-120	8.5	50%	5.5	2.9	6.1
9.2	Parker Messick	L	TB	3.4%	-125	7.5	53%	5.7	3.1	6.1
8.9	Shane Baz	R	@CLE	29.7%	+105	7.5	47%	5.4	2.7	5.6
8.9	Mitch Keller	R	@STL	49.4%	+115	7.5	48%	5.6	2.7	4.9
8.7	MacKenzie Gore	L	@NYY	72.4%	+150	8.5	40%	5.3	2.7	6.0
8.7	Nick Martinez	R	@LAD	24.4%	+155	8.5	43%	5.3	2.4	4.5
8.4	Kyle Bradish	R	BOS	7.0%	-105	8.5	48%	5.1	2.6	5.2
8.3	Sandy Alcantara	R	ATL	43.4%	+110	7.5	56%	5.5	2.7	4.7
8.2	Martin Perez	L	KC	2.4%	+110	8.5	50%	5.3	2.6	4.6
8.0	Justin Verlander	R	CHC	8.3%	+120	7.5	39%	5.4	2.6	4.7
8.0	Clayton Kershaw	L	CIN	34.2%	-185	8.5	57%	4.8	2.1	4.0
7.9	Michael Lorenzen	R	@CWS	4.9%	-130	8.5	50%	5.2	2.6	4.6
7.9	Andre Pallante	R	PIT	3.7%	-135	7.5	52%	5.3	2.4	4.3
7.9	Charlie Morton	R	@ATH	12.5%	-145	10.5	52%	5.4	3.0	5.4
7.5	Lucas Giolito*	R	@BAL	30.9%	-115	8.5	52%	5.6	3.3	5.1
7.2	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@MIL	58.4%	+135	8.5	47%	5.4	3.2	5.0
6.4	Hurston Waldrep	R	@MIA	59.3%	-130	7.5	44%	4.9	2.5	4.6
6.3	Osvaldo Bido	R	DET	0.3%	+120	10.5	48%	4.7	2.7	4.5
6.2	Jacob Misiorowski	R	ARI	68.3%	-160	8.5	53%	3.9	2.1	5.0
5.1	Patrick Corbin	L	LAA	4.7%	EVEN	8.5	50%	5.1	3.6	4.7
3.1	Tanner Gordon	R	@HOU	0.2%	+270	7.5	34%	4.7	3.4	3.8

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Considering the star power in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, such as Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, it's surprising they average the ninth fewest runs per game in the league on the road, and they're even less potent facing left-handers. This is why Sean Manaea ranks as the second-best overall starter on Tuesday's slate. The southpaw isn't pitching deep into the game lately, but he's fanned 20 in his last 13 2/3 innings. He's been unfortunate in this span as evidenced by a 7.90 ERA, more than twice as high as the associated 3.62 xFIP.
Luis Gil struggled with his control in his last outing, walking five in five innings, though he caught a break when the Boston Red Sox could only push one run across the plate. Throwing strikes has always been an issue for the 27-year-old right-hander and continues to be the case this season after missing the first four months with a lat injury. However, Gil also carries a high strikeout rate and limits home runs. The New York Yankees take on the Washington Nationals in the Bronx, setting up Gil for a solid effort. The Nationals are one of the least patient teams in the league, as well as carrying a low home run rate.
August has been kind to Clayton Kershaw with a 1.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over four starts. However, just 13 punchouts in those 23 2/3 frames indicates that Lady Luck has played a part. Regression is independent of the quality of the opponent and Tuesday, Kershaw faces the Cincinnati Reds, one of the least productive lineups facing left-handers as demonstrated by the fifth lowest wOBA against southpaws. Additionally, the Reds will experience a big park downgrade in Dodger Stadium.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Trusting Luis Castillo for his home date with the San Diego Padres is a tough call. His 3.57 ERA is appealing, but a 1.27 WHIP and 4.17 xFIP paint a less rosy picture. In August, the veteran right hander's ERA is 6.05 with a bloated 1.66 WHIP. As opposed to hitting streaks which have been shown to be non-predictive, research reveals a pitcher's recent performance is more meaningful. This is not a call to avoid Castillo in all formats, but in leagues with a limit to games started per week, it's defensible to keep Castillo on the bench.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Tanner Gordon notched a win in his last two outings, including a quality start against the Dodgers, but he's vulnerable with only five strikeouts in those 11 innings. The Colorado Rockies open a road set with the Houston Astros. Yordan Alvarez is expected to return from an extended IL stint, boosting the Astros lineup. He's still rostered in 90% of ESPN leagues, but Christian Walker and Carlos Correa are available in more than half or ESPN leagues and should benefit from Alvarez's return, not to mention facing Gordon.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium has the eighth-lowest fence height (on average) in MLB.

Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Hernandez has been unlucky this year, posting a .313 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .338 -- a .025 difference.

Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last seven days, Doyle's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his season-long rate of 15.6%.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Sandy Alcantara | UNDER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Shane Livensparger is a huge "hitter's umpire" and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

Hurston Waldrep | UNDER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.01 EV
One reason to bet this: Shane Livensparger is a huge "hitter's umpire" and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.48 EV
One reason to bet this: The Arizona Diamondbacks have six hitters in their projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Misiorowski in today's game.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Padres @ Mariners | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $4.15 EV

D-Backs @ Brewers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.95 EV