Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
The perception is that Luis Severino struggles in Sacramento and is exhibiting extreme home and away stats. The truth is that his xFIP is better at home; he has just been snakebit in Sutter Health Park. The reason Severino makes the streamer list isn't because the Athletics have a road date with the Houston Astros, but rather because the Astros lineup is still missing two top bats (Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena) and the team is below average facing right-handers.
The break was ill-timed for Charlie Morton. In his five outings heading into the respite, Morton posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. He sputtered in his first start back, yielding seven runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Tampa Bay Rays. With the Baltimore Orioles appearing to be trade deadline sellers, and pitching at a premium, expect Morton to rebound and improve the chances he's dealt to a contender. He'll face a Cleveland Guardians lineup with the fifth-lowest wOBA facing righties.
Reese Olson is slated to take the hill in a battle of first-place teams when the Detroit Tigers entertain the Toronto Blue Jays. Both clubs are vying with the Astros for best record in the American League. Don't expect Olson to rack up a slew of punchouts, but the Blue Jays sport a below average walk and home run rate, so the righty should keep his club in the game while the offense takes aim at Eric Lauer.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Athletics pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.96 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.18 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.35 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.81 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.65 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.60 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
It took an abbreviated five-game slate, but the Los Angeles Angels make the cut as a lineup to target when they face Logan Evans in Anaheim. The Seattle Mariners right-hander sports a 3.81 ERA, but his generous 1.42 WHIP is more indicative of how he has pitched. The Angels' Logan O'Hoppe, Zach Neto, Jo Adell and Nolan Schanuel are all in play.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Detroit Tigers LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians LHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .331 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres batters vs. Cardinals pitchers
The average hitter would post a .300 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .308 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park has the second-lowest fences in the league.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Rooker is in the 88th percentile for power per my version of expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, with 27.5.
Fernando Tatis Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Busch Stadium has the eighth-lowest fences among all parks.