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Pitchers to stream on Friday
Ryne Nelson's ERA estimators are about half a run higher than his actual 3.52 mark, but that's still representative of a league average pitcher, usable in favorable scenarios. A perfect example is the Arizona Diamondbacks opening a weekend set in PNC Park against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nelson draws the assignment and will face the lineup with the lowest wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate with a right-hander on the hill.
Dean Kremer's 19.6% strikeout rate is a couple ticks below league average, but he has a chance to nose it up a bit when the Baltimore Orioles welcome the Colorado Rockies to Camden Yards for the opener of a three-game interleague series. The Rockies will be playing their initial road game since the break, and the franchise historically struggles in their first contest after a homestand. Plus, they already sport the league's highest strikeout rate versus righties.
Gavin Williams walked at least three hitters in each of his six outings heading into the break. With a few days to reflect, the Cleveland Guardians' right-hander's first outing when play resumed was a seven-inning gem where he yielded just one run to the Athletics, punching out 11 while issuing just one free pass. The Guardians have a knack for fixing issues and in his last outing, Williams threw fewer four-seam fastballs while increasing sinker and sweeper usage. It may have been a one-time game plan, or perhaps a new approach. A start against the Kansas City Royals is the perfect opportunity to stay on a roll as they sport the third lowest wOBA versus right-handers fueled by the lowest walk rate.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: F | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.06 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.59 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.49 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.28 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Southpaw Joey Wentz pitched well in three outings since being signed by the Atlanta Braves, but he struggled earlier in the season and for most of his major league career. The Texas Rangers are using a heavy platoon approach, with Michael Helman, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung all enjoying the platoon edge from prominent lineup spots when the Braves visit the Rangers this evening.
Hitters to avoid on Friday
As a club, the Guardians are mid-pack in terms of steals. They have only two players with double-digit bags: Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan. Expect it to stay that way with a weekend trip against the Royals on the docket. The Kansas City battery remains the best at controlling the running game, allowing just 15 swipes all season. Next lowest is the Philadelphia Phillies with 30. Clearly, there is no benching Ramirez since he contributes so much more than 31 steals. However, Kwan, along with teammates Nolan Jones and Daniel Schneemann are best avoided this weekend since they need their occasional pilfer to be fantasy relevant.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year. His .362 rate is quite a bit lower than his .403 expected wOBA, based on my projections.
Jordan Walker | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.37 EV
One reason to bet this: Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% -- 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLBs seventh-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Andrew Benintendi | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 4 stadium in the league for boosting home runs to LHB, according to my projections, is Guaranteed Rate Field.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Kyle Freeland | OVER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Among starters, Freeland's fastball spin rate of 2,418 rpm ranks in the 80th percentile this year.
Adrian Houser | UNDER 3.5 K (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Houser (48 GB% according to my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game given the makeup of hitters in Chicago's projected lineup.
Miles Mikolas | UNDER 3.5 K (-190)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.35 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Diego Padres, with a 17.6 underlying K%.