Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

Todd ZolaJul 1, 2025, 07:02 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.7	Paul Skenes	R	STL	99.9%	-165	7.5	58%	6.0	2.0	6.1
13.3	Freddy Peralta	R	@NYM	95.1%	+105	8.5	51%	5.7	1.9	6.5
12.9	Cristopher Sanchez	L	SD	90.9%	-165	8.5	51%	6.0	2.1	5.7
12.6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	CWS	99.5%	-335	8.5	64%	5.8	2.1	6.1
12.6	Joe Ryan	R	@MIA	97.6%	-155	7.5	65%	5.7	2.3	6.5
11.0	Nick Pivetta	R	@PHI	91.2%	+140	8.5	49%	5.5	2.5	6.3
11.0	Clay Holmes	R	MIL	75.2%	-125	8.5	49%	5.6	2.0	5.0
10.9	Max Fried	L	@TOR	99.6%	-165	7.5	52%	5.7	2.3	5.7
10.8	Jacob deGrom	R	BAL	97.7%	-185	7.5	62%	5.1	2.2	5.5
10.7	Matthew Boyd	L	CLE	68.7%	-180	8.5	59%	5.4	2.1	5.1
10.2	Shane Baz	R	ATH	47.0%	-165	8.5	55%	5.6	2.4	5.2
10.0	Kevin Gausman	R	NYY	85.2%	+140	7.5	48%	5.7	2.7	5.8
9.1	Jack Flaherty	R	@WSH	78.0%	-160	9.5	58%	5.5	3.0	5.9
8.8	Zac Gallen	R	SF	68.2%	-135	9.5	51%	5.6	2.9	5.5
8.4	Grant Holmes	R	LAA	36.6%	-185	9.5	56%	5.1	3.0	6.2
8.4	Edward Cabrera	R	MIN	10.7%	+130	7.5	35%	4.9	2.2	5.2
8.4	Michael Lorenzen	R	@SEA	4.3%	+120	8.5	50%	5.2	2.5	4.7
8.1	Shane Smith	R	@LAD	12.4%	+265	8.5	36%	4.9	2.2	4.8
7.4	Gavin Williams	R	@CHC	18.0%	+150	8.5	41%	5.0	2.5	4.9
7.4	Jeffrey Springs	L	@TB	13.2%	+140	8.5	45%	5.1	2.6	4.5
7.3	Hayden Birdsong	R	@ARI	5.7%	+115	9.5	49%	4.9	2.6	5.1
7.2	Brady Singer	R	@BOS	32.4%	-105	9.5	52%	5.5	3.4	5.3
7.2	Emerson Hancock	R	KC	2.5%	-145	8.5	50%	5.0	2.5	3.8
7.0	Andre Pallante	R	@PIT	5.8%	+140	7.5	42%	5.3	2.7	4.3
6.6	Trevor Williams	R	DET	0.6%	+135	9.5	42%	5.2	3.0	4.3
4.9	Tyler Anderson	L	@ATL	7.0%	+155	9.5	44%	5.2	3.6	4.7
4.2	Brandon Young	R	@TEX	0.1%	+155	7.5	38%	4.4	3.0	4.1
3.8	Richard Fitts	R	CIN	1.0%	-115	9.5	48%	4.1	2.9	3.8
0.2	Colton Gordon	L	@COL	7.8%	-160	11.5	53%	4.9	5.7	4.9
-1.0	Chase Dollander	R	HOU	1.4%	+135	11.5	47%	4.5	5.2	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Over his last three starts, Shane Baz has reworked his repertoire by adding a cutter and using it as his primary pitch. He's throwing fewer curveballs while abandoning his slider and rarely mixing in a change-up. Baz registered a scoreless outing in the first and third game of this stretch, though the Detroit Tigers solved him for five runs in 5 1/3 frames in the middle effort. Even so, 21 strikeouts in 20 innings are more like what is expected from the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander. Look for Baz to continue racking up hitters in Tuesday's home date with the Athletics.
Strikeouts are more of a bonus for Michael Lorenzen, as most of his fantasy allure stems from pitching deep into games while preventing runs. His 19.2% strikeout rate is below average, but it's his highest mark since 2022 and is supported by an uptick in swinging strike rate. Lorenzen is in a good spot to combine innings with strikeouts when the Kansas City Royals visit the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners fan at an elevated clip at home and generate a below-average wOBA versus right-handers.
Edward Cabrera sports a tidy 1.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over his last six outings spanning 30 innings. He has an impressive 36 strikeouts in that span but has walked 15, limiting how deep he has gone into games. Tuesday lines up as a favorable matchup with the Miami Marlins hosting the Minnesota Twins. The Twins don't strike out at a high clip, but they're impatient, which benefits Cabrera's pitch count. And Cabrera's stuff can generate strikeouts against any lineup.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Zac Gallen is an enigma. Sure, his 5.75 ERA is deemed high by the associated estimators, but his 4.40 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA are both well above league average. Gallen's strikeout rate is down and he's issuing walks at an elevated clip. Most importantly, Gallen's home run rate has skyrocketed. The Arizona Diamondbacks righthander's velocity is down half a tick but seemingly not enough to account for the steep decline in performance. Dropping Gallen, even in shallow leagues is defensible, but at minimum, he should be avoided until his strikeout and walk rates reverse direction. It's best to look elsewhere when the Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

he Colorado Rockies begin a six-game homestand Tuesday, so picking up their bats is for more than a one-day endeavor. At 72.2%, only Hunter Goodman is rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. Brenton Doyle is struggling, but he's worth a look with a week of home cooking, as are Jordan Beck, Ryan McMahon and Michael Toglia in particular.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Addison Barger | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Barger has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season. Compare his 93.4-mph average in 2025 to last season's 88.1-mph average.

Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.85 EV
One reason to bet this: George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height in the majors.

Austin Hedges | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the fourth-highest level (81 degrees) on today's schedule, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Colton Gordon | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering the 0.73 difference between Gordon's 8.41 K/9 and his 7.68 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts. He figures to see worse results over the rest of the season.

Chase Dollander | OVER 3.5 K (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Dollander's 2,416-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 81st percentile of all starting pitchers.

Richard Fitts | UNDER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Fenway Park profiles as the No. 29 field in baseball for strikeouts, per my projections.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Astros @ Rockies | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $2.90 EV