Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 28, 2025, 07:26 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.0	Garrett Crochet	L	@BAL	99.9%	-185	7.5	60%	5.5	2.2	6.7
12.1	Shota Imanaga	L	@SF	95.5%	-110	7.5	55%	6.0	2.3	5.5
10.9	Logan Webb	R	CHC	98.8%	-110	7.5	45%	6.1	2.6	5.6
10.3	Jason Alexander	R	COL	12.4%	-250	8.5	61%	5.5	2.3	5.1
10.1	Clay Holmes	R	MIA	55.3%	-250	8.5	61%	5.3	2.0	4.6
9.4	Aaron Nola	R	ATL	70.8%	-185	9.5	63%	5.7	3.1	5.8
9.2	Will Warren	R	@CWS	22.3%	-190	8.5	53%	5.2	2.4	5.3
8.2	Jose Quintana	L	ARI	24.0%	-165	8.5	74%	5.5	3.0	4.4
7.5	Davis Martin	R	NYY	2.4%	+160	8.5	47%	5.3	2.9	4.6
7.2	Adam Mazur	R	@NYM	0.1%	+205	8.5	39%	4.9	2.3	4.0
7.1	Miles Mikolas	R	PIT	2.8%	-125	8.5	51%	5.2	2.8	3.9
6.6	Cade Povich	L	BOS	1.8%	+155	7.5	40%	5.2	3.2	5.0
6.1	Kyle Freeland	L	@HOU	1.1%	+205	8.5	39%	5.1	3.0	4.3
5.7	Braxton Ashcraft	R	@STL	4.8%	+105	8.5	49%	3.6	1.7	3.4
4.9	Cal Quantrill	R	@PHI	0.7%	+155	9.5	37%	4.9	3.0	4.0
2.1	Nabil Crismatt	R	@MIL	1.0%	+140	8.5	26%	3.9	2.9	3.2

Pitchers to stream Thursday

Jason Alexander is one of the main reasons the Houston Astros maintain a slim lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. The journeyman righty is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP this month, albeit with a pedestrian 18 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. The lack of dominance renders Alexander risky, but he still enjoys a favorable home matchup against the Colorado Rockies. When away from Coors Field, the Rockies sport the lowest wOBA and highest strikeout rate when facing right-handers.
Will Warren's streak of five straight solid efforts was interrupted by the Boston Red Sox in his last outing. He went into the game with a 1.93 ERA and 1.11 ERA over his prior 28 frames. Look for Warren to get back on track when the New York Yankees visit the Chicago White Sox. The South Siders have been more productive lately, but for the season (a more reliable sample), they sport the third-lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Jose Quintana is 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.01 ERA this month. The lefty has been fortunate, considering he has fanned just 20 in 28 2/3 August innings, but limiting walks and playing with a strong Milwaukee Brewers defense keeps runs off the board. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been surprisingly effective against southpaws, despite Blaze Alexander, Ildemaro Vargas and Tyler Locklear replacing Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk. Even so, Quintana's strong chance for a home win lands him in streaming territory.

Pitchers to avoid Thursday

Despite collecting a win in a quality start in his last outing, Aaron Nola is risky when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves. The veteran right-hander yielded six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings to the Washington Nationals in mid-August his first start off the IL, then held the same club to two runs over six frames in his last effort. After a quiet first half, the Braves offense has improved, registering the 12th-highest wOBA in the league since the break.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream Thursday

Cal Quantrill struggled in his first start with the Braves last weekend, surrendering three runs in 4 2/3 innings before leaving with cramps. It could have been worse, considering Quantrill gave up five hits and five walks. The Phillies are familiar with Quantrill from his stint with the Miami Marlins. Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott and J.T. Realmuto are all candidates to contribute to a productive evening.
After serving as the bulk reliever last time out, Nabil Crismatt is slated to serve as a traditional starter for the Diamondbacks on the road against the Brewers. Crismatt is the lowest ranked starter on Thursday's docket, so the Diamondbacks' depleted bullpen will likely be called in early. The Brewers' Andruw Monasterio, Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick, Isaac Collins and Andrew Vaughn are all streaming options.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Ozuna's 12.0 Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 80th percentile this year.

Heliot Ramos | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.73 EV
One reason to bet this: Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's second-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Shota Imanaga | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Imanaga's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).

Will Warren | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.50 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Guaranteed Rate Field as the worst ballpark in the majors for strikeouts.

Cade Povich | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.34 EV
One reason to bet this: Povich has had positive variance on his side in 2025 when it comes to strikeouts, compiling a 9.94 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 8.84 -- a 1.10 K/9 gap.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Marlins @ Mets | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $1.20 EV