Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Monday
Six homers in 28 1/3 innings masked an otherwise strong month for Dustin May. He fanned 36 with only eight walks over five May starts. His first start in June will be a challenge with the Los Angeles Dodgers welcoming the New York Mets to Chavez Ravine. However, the Dodgers will be favored facing Paul Blackburn and when May is on, he can handle any lineup.
At first blush, it may appear Luis Severino has struggled at home since his ERA at Sutter Health Park is 6.20, compared to 0.87 on the road. However, his home xFIP is lower than his road mark, so Severino is in play on Monday when the Athletics entertain the Minnesota Twins. The visitors are a below average offense versus right-handers, especially away from Target Field.
Max Meyer struggled in his last outing but has the ideal matchup to get back on track with the Colorado Rockies visiting the Miami Marlins. He pitched better than this 4.53 ERA suggests as demonstrated by a 3.31 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA. Most of the damage has come from a high 18.9% HR/FB rate, leading to 10 homers in just 59 2/3 innings. The Rockies sport the fourth lowest home run rate on the road versus right-handers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.61 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.21 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.25 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.60 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.86 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.80 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
The Boston Red Sox open a series in Fenway Park against Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels. Temperatures are forecast to pick up in the Northeast, with scoring likely to rise with them. Several Red Sox right-handed hitters are available and line up well with the platoon advantage, including Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer and Carlos Narvaez.
The Cincinnati Reds' disappointing offense is reflected by low rostership levels for underperforming hitters. Monday presents an opportunity to take advantage with a home date against Aaron Civale and the Milwaukee Brewers. Civale has tossed only 12 frames this season, but he's surrendered four long balls along with punching out only nine. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Gavin Lux and Tyler Stephenson are all candidates to open the fantasy week on a high note.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: A | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .293 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .297 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
LaMonte Wade Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.27 EV
One reason to bet this: Wade pulls many of his flyballs (33.8%, 79th percentile) and he'll be hitting them towards baseball's second-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Carlos Correa | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.84 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks). This game is expected to have the hottest weather on the today's schedule at 85 degrees.
Rafael Devers | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Devers' launch angle this year (14.6 degrees) is quite a bit higher than his 11.3 degrees angle last year.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Richard Fitts | UNDER 3.5 K (-190)
Projection: 94% chance of this bet hitting, with a $81.35 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.6 mph in this matchup, the third-best of the day for hitters.
Dustin May | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.39 EV
One reason to bet this: Via my projections, the team with the fifth-least strikeout-heavy lineup on today's slate is the Mets, with a 21.6 underlying K%.
Tyler Anderson | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Anderson's 88.3-mph fastball velocity this season is a significant decline from last years 89.5-mph figure.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Mets @ Dodgers | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $9.38 EV
Rockies @ Marlins | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $4.78 EV
Brewers @ Reds | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $0.45 EV