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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Four of Clarke Schmidt's last five outings have been quality starts, with the only blemish coming in a visit to Coors Field. Including that effort, the New York Yankees righty posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over that span, fanning 27 in 28 2/3 innings. Next up is a home affair with the Cleveland Guardians. The visitors fan at a below-average clip, but it's just a tick lower than the norm, as opposed to last season's fifth-best mark in MLB. Schmidt should again go deep into the game and be in play for a win.
Matthew Boyd also registered four quality starts in May, with his lone hiccup coming at Great American Ballpark. For the month, the southpaw's ERA was 3.54 with a low 1.04 WHIP and 34 punchouts in 28 frames. Boyd and the Chicago Cubs open a road set Wednesday against the Washington Nationals. The host's offense picked up the pace in May, but their better hitters are left-handed, and Boyd historically excels with the platoon edge.
All of Noah Cameron's first four MLB outings were quality starts, as he opened his career with a sparkling 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, albeit with a pedestrian 16 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings. A .153 BABIP and 98.9% left-on-base mark have artificially suppressed his ERA. Normally, the advice would be to be wary of regression -- and it still is -- but the Kansas City Royals rookie left-hander matches up well with the St. Louis Cardinals in a road matchup between regional rivals. The Cardinals sport a below-average lineup with some strikeout potential facing lefties.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.37 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.71 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.95 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.08 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Much to the chagrin of fantasy managers pining for the Pittsburgh Pirates to promote top prospect Bubba Chandler, the club instead tabbed Mike Burrows to replace the struggling Carmen Mlodzinski in their rotation. Burrow hasn't fared much better, allowing eight earned runs in two starts covering 8 1/3 innings. The Houston Astros visit PNC Park for an interleague tilt Wednesday, and Christian Walker appears poised to break out, while Jeremy Pena has been solid all season.
Hitters to avoid on Wednesday
Avoiding hitters from the top-scoring offense in the league seems risky, but it's not often a team faces the major league leader in strikeouts. Such is the case when the Cubs square off with MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals. The lefty has racked up 101 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings, and even though the Cubs have handled lefty pitching well, giving lefties Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong the night off is defensible.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: A+ | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .253 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: F | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Royce Lewis | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.75 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.95 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.5 mph in this game, the second-best of the day for batters.
Willi Castro | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.61 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park has the fifth-lowest average fence height in the majors.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Zebby Matthews | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 2.08 disparity between Matthews' 11.15 K/9 and his 9.07 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.
Griffin Canning | UNDER 4.5 K (-135)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starting pitchers, Canning's fastball spin rate of 2,156 rpm grades out in the 10th percentile this year.
Mick Abel | UNDER 4.5 K (-165)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Abel (32.8 GB% per my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game given the makeup of Toronto's projected batting order.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Mets @ Dodgers | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $10.86 EV
Rangers @ Rays | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.90 EV
Astros @ Pirates | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $0.97 EV