Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league
Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
It won't be long before the Tampa Bay Rays play most of their games on the road, but they open the week with a home set against the Texas Rangers. Despite the favorable hitting environment, Drew Rasmussen has posted a 2.14 ERA in 42 innings at George Steinbrenner Field. The righty is in a great spot to stay effective at home, facing the lineup with the third lowest wOBA against righthanders in baseball.
Lance McCullers Jr. is coming off a quality start as he allowed three earned runs in six frames to the Athletics last time, with 12 punchouts to just one walk. While he isn't out of the woods in terms of long-term durability, McCullers is in play on a start-to-start basis, especially for favorable matchups such as the Houston Astros visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. He'll face the lineup with MLB's fourth lowest wOBA versus righties.
The safe play is tracking Detroit Tigers SP Sawyer Gipson-Long before trusting him for fantasy, but with a road date with the Chicago White Sox on the docket, the 27-year-old right-hander checks the streaming boxes. Gipson-Long hasn't pitched in the majors since 2023. He's been out following Tommy John surgery, as well as a hip issue. Gipson-Long was impressive in his final rehab outing, hurling 5 1/3 frames with five strikeouts to just one walk for Triple-A Toledo. Continuing today's theme, the White Sox sport the league's lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Zac Gallen is having an uncharacteristically subpar season. After allowing five or more earned runs in only 14.5% of his starts the prior two seasons, he's already done it four times in six outings (33%) this season. The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the road against the Atlanta Braves, presenting another challenge for Gallen. The Braves' offense is up to seventh best with a righty on the hill.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.53 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.88 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.76 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.15 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
After a stellar outing in his debut as a starter this season, Athletics' Jacob Lopez struggled last time in his follow-up. It's going to be warm in Sacramento this week, rendering even better hitting conditions in Sutter Health Park. Look for the visiting Minnesota Twins to take advantage against Lopez, and not a single visiting batter is rostered in more than 45% of ESPN leagues.
Hitters to avoid on Tuesday
There have been only 10 stolen base attempts against the Kansas City Royals this season, half of which were thrown out. The St. Louis Cardinals host Michael Lorenzen and the Royals on Tuesday. Three of the tries came with Lorenzen on the hill (one caught). Even so, it may be best to sit Victor Scott II and his 16 steals for this three-game interleague set.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Chicago White Sox LHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins RHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has improved recently, rising from 12.4% on the season to 17.5% over the past two weeks.
Max Kepler | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Kepler has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year. His 18.0 HR per 600 plate appearances is a good deal lower than his 23.2 expected HR/600, based on my projections.
Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.77 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections estimate Rodriguez's true offensive skill to be a .364 wOBA, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .045 gap between that mark and his actual .319 wOBA.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (-105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering the 0.81 difference between Rodon's 11.15 K/9 and his 10.33 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.
Pablo Lopez | UNDER 6.5 K (-125)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.23 EV
One reason to bet this: Alfonso Marquez, scheduled to be behind the plate today, projects as a huge "hitter's umpire."
Tomoyuki Sugano | UNDER 3.5 K (+120)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.71 EV
One reason to bet this: Sugano and his 42.8 underlying GB% (per my projections) finds himself in a difficult spot in this outing being matched up with only two opposing GB bats.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Angels @ Red Sox | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.47 EV
Brewers @ Reds | YRFI (+115)
Projection: 47% chance of RUN with a $1.78 EV