Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize has been both good and lucky. Introducing a cutter and throwing more splitters while cutting back on four-seam fastballs and slider has fueled a career best K-BB% and induced weaker contact. However, even with the changes, regression is coming for his .238 BABIP and 94.5% left-on-base mark. Regression is independent of the opponent and can occur at any time. That said, on Thursday, Mize enjoys a juicy matchup in Anaheim, facing a Los Angeles Angels team with the sixth-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers.
Over his last 23 starts, including six this season, San Francisco Giants RHP Justin Verlander has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and 102 strikeouts over 121 frames. However, the future Hall of Famer is coming off consecutive quality efforts, albeit against a pair of lower-third offenses. On Thursday, Verlander draws the Colorado Rockies at home, putting him in position for another quality start. The visitors tote the fourth-worst wOBA and highest strikeout rate into Oracle Park.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi appeared to be coming out of his early season funk before being hit hard his last time out. On Thursday, Kikuchi has a tough home matchup against the Tigers and an offense with the 11th-best wOBA with a lefty on the hill.
Texas Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle recorded a 1.14 ERA and .98 WHIP over his first six outings, spanning 31 2/3 innings. However, a 4.01 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA indicate he has been just a league average pitcher. The Athletics visit Arlington and are the type of team that can give Mahle fits. Overall, their offense is middle of the pack, but the A's put the ball in play and have an above-average home run rate.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.67 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.86 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.75 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.63 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
The scoreboard operator in Citizens Bank Park should be busy with RHP Taijuan Walker and the Philadelphia Phillies hosting RHP Brad Lord and the Washington Nationals. Most of the Phillies are likely rostered, but it's worth checking on J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. There is a better chance of finding Nationals batters to fortify a Thursday lineup that has only 11 games on the docket. Luis Garcia Jr., Dylan Crews, Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell are the top options.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.
Daulton Varsho | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme flyball hitters like Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.
Jarren Duran | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.12 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 2 field in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per my projections, is Rogers Centre.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Sean Burke | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.65 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the fourth-worst MLB venue for strikeouts.
Chad Patrick | UNDER 4.5 K (-130)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Patrick has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing nine fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
Yusei Kikuchi | OVER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.88 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will only be the seventh-best for pitching on the slate today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Red Sox @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.72 EV
Royals @ Rays | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $0.36 EV