Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaJul 6, 2025, 08:36 AM ET
Close
Follow on X

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
16.5	Zack Wheeler	R	CIN	99.9%	-225	8.5	63%	6.4	2.0	7.4
15.4	Tarik Skubal	L	@CLE	99.9%	-210	7.5	61%	6.0	1.7	6.3
15.0	Paul Skenes	R	@SEA	99.9%	-115	6.5	53%	5.9	1.7	6.7
12.9	Garrett Crochet	L	@WSH	99.8%	-270	8.5	65%	5.7	2.5	7.0
12.8	Max Fried	L	@NYM	99.6%	-225	8.5	62%	5.8	2.0	6.2
12.3	George Kirby	R	PIT	81.1%	-105	6.5	47%	5.8	2.1	5.6
11.4	Joe Ryan	R	TB	97.8%	-120	7.5	66%	5.5	2.6	6.0
10.9	Matthew Boyd	L	STL	74.7%	-210	7.5	52%	5.4	2.0	5.0
10.8	Kevin Gausman	R	LAA	86.5%	-185	9.5	59%	5.8	2.7	5.9
9.8	Jacob Lopez	L	SF	16.7%	-115	10.5	55%	5.1	2.2	5.4
9.2	Brandon Woodruff	R	@MIA	37.2%	-130	8.5	53%	4.8	1.9	4.5
9.2	Erick Fedde	R	@CHC	8.3%	+175	7.5	48%	5.5	2.6	5.0
9.2	Grant Holmes	R	BAL	48.7%	-160	8.5	55%	5.3	2.9	6.3
9.2	Edward Cabrera	R	MIL	24.2%	+110	8.5	47%	4.9	2.0	5.1
8.2	Brandon Waddell*	L	NYY	0.4%	+185	8.5	38%	5.0	2.3	4.9
8.0	Ryan Gusto	R	@LAD	1.4%	+155	9.5	48%	5.0	2.6	4.9
8.0	Hayden Birdsong	R	@ATH	6.5%	-105	10.5	45%	4.9	2.6	5.6
8.0	Emmet Sheehan	R	HOU	6.0%	-185	9.5	52%	4.3	2.1	5.0
7.5	Michael Lorenzen	R	@ARI	5.4%	+120	9.5	62%	5.2	2.8	4.5
7.3	Tyler Anderson	L	@TOR	10.2%	+155	9.5	41%	5.4	2.8	4.6
7.1	Gavin Williams	R	DET	17.8%	+175	7.5	39%	4.9	2.6	5.1
7.0	Drew Rasmussen	R	@MIN	71.7%	EVEN	7.5	34%	4.5	2.2	4.2
6.9	Jack Leiter	R	@SD	14.5%	--	--	60%	4.8	2.4	4.4
6.9	Chase Burns	R	@PHI	30.8%	+185	8.5	37%	5.3	3.1	5.3
6.3	Shinnosuke Ogasawara	L	BOS	0.5%	+220	8.5	35%	5.0	3.0	5.1
4.1	Trevor Rogers	L	@ATL	16.4%	+135	8.5	45%	4.8	3.3	4.3
3.5	Anthony DeSclafani	R	KC	1.3%	-145	9.5	38%	3.0	1.7	2.7
2.3	Shane Smith	R	@COL	13.7%	-120	11.5	56%	4.6	4.5	5.2
	TBD		TEX	0.0%	--	--	40%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-1.1	Chase Dollander	R	CWS	2.1%	EVEN	11.5	44%	4.3	5.0	4.0

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Sunday afternoon games in Sacramento over the summer will usually involve one of the highest temperatures on the slate, so Sutter Health Park will favor hitting. Even so, Athletics starter Jacob Lopez is demonstrating the array of skills needed to overcome the obstacle. Specifically, over his past five outings, Lopez recorded a 1.37 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with an impressive 30 strikeouts over 26 1/3 innings while walking just eight with only one homer allowed. Additionally, the lefty faces the San Francisco Giants with the third lowest wOBA and seventh highest strikeout rate with a left-hander on the hill.
Edward Cabrera started the season with a 5.50 ERA and 1.49 WHIP over his first seven starts spanning 34 1/3 innings. In his last seven outings, he registered a 1.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP covering 37 frames. He fanned 42, but issued an excessive 16 free passes, though with only two homers allowed. Cabrera has a favorable matchup at home against the Milwaukee Brewers and their below-average home run rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to call up Emmet Sheehan from Triple-A Oklahoma City for Sunday's home start against the Houston Astros. He logged a spot start in June, fanning six San Diego Padres in four innings. Since then, he started twice in the minors, with one dominating effort and one subpar outing. The Astros offense is ticking up, but for the season they're still a below average unit and the Dodgers offense should be able to provide run support facing Colton Gordon.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

Before hurting his shoulder, Brandon Woodruff was elite, recording a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 103 starts between 2019 and 2023. However, he hasn't toed a major league rubber since September 23, 2023 as he underwent shoulder surgery. Woodruff also had to deal with right ankle tendinitis and a right elbow contusion while rehabbing over the first half. Overall, during his rehab, Woodruff posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, though he struggled in his final outing, which was the only one following his recovery from a bruised elbow. Based on his track record, it is tempting to start Woodruff in his 2025 debut against the Miami Marlins, but he'll likely be on a pitch limit. The safe approach is to remain patient and wait at least one start.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

The Arizona Diamondbacks are starting Anthony DeSclafani and his career 1.37 HR/9 mark at home against the Kansas City Royals. Chase Field isn't a home run park, but it's better than Kauffman Stadium. Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone are candidates to provide some Sunday pop.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The #5 stadium in the game for boosting home runs to righties, per my projections, is Petco Park.

Juan Soto | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Juan Soto has been unlucky this year, putting up a .390 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .413 - a .023 discrepancy.

Fernando Tatis Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, my projections believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .035 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .377.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Chris Devenski | OVER 1.5 K (+130)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.63 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 6 6 park in the game for boosting strikeouts is Citi Field.

Chase Burns | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.94 EV
One reason to bet this: With six bats of the opposite hand in the opposing teams projected offense, Burns will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Tarik Skubal | UNDER 7.5 K (-100)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.16 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right field at 11.5 mph in this contest, the third-best of the day for hitters.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Brewers @ Marlins | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $3.84 EV

Orioles @ Braves | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $1.70 EV

Rangers @ Padres | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $1.08 EV