Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaJul 4, 2025, 05:00 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.6	Carlos Rodon	L	@NYM	97.1%	65%	5.9	1.8	6.3
12.8	Luis Castillo	R	PIT	93.5%	63%	6.0	2.4	6.0
12.2	Framber Valdez	L	@LAD	98.9%	59%	6.1	2.5	6.1
12.0	Ranger Suarez	L	CIN	84.6%	56%	5.9	2.4	5.9
11.5	Logan Webb	R	@ATH	99.1%	55%	6.1	2.8	6.0
11.3	Max Scherzer	R	LAA	15.2%	63%	5.2	2.2	5.6
9.7	Frankie Montas	R	NYY	4.5%	35%	5.3	2.2	5.3
9.5	Chad Patrick	R	@MIA	17.6%	57%	5.4	2.6	5.5
9.2	Jameson Taillon	R	STL	30.9%	55%	5.7	2.7	4.6
8.8	Stephen Kolek	R	TEX	6.7%	54%	5.4	2.4	4.6
8.5	Michael Wacha	R	@ARI	25.0%	60%	5.5	2.8	5.0
8.5	Taj Bradley	R	@MIN	40.2%	46%	5.3	2.8	5.3
8.4	Nick Lodolo	L	@PHI	49.7%	44%	5.2	2.7	5.4
8.2	Luis Severino	R	SF	14.2%	45%	5.8	3.0	4.8
8.1	Dean Kremer	R	@ATL	9.4%	61%	5.4	2.9	4.9
7.9	Casey Mize	R	@CLE	59.1%	52%	5.0	2.5	4.7
7.3	Matthew Liberatore	L	@CHC	34.8%	45%	5.0	2.6	4.4
6.8	Jack Leiter	R	@SD	12.4%	46%	4.8	2.4	4.4
6.7	Mike Burrows	R	@SEA	0.9%	37%	4.6	2.6	4.9
6.7	Shohei Ohtani	R	HOU	99.9%	41%	4.1	1.9	3.9
6.6	Mitchell Parker	L	BOS	6.3%	48%	5.0	3.0	4.9
6.5	Logan Allen	L	DET	2.4%	48%	5.1	3.0	4.7
6.2	Ryne Nelson	R	KC	15.2%	40%	5.0	3.0	4.3
5.9	Cal Quantrill	R	MIL	0.4%	43%	4.9	2.7	4.0
5.7	Jack Kochanowicz	R	@TOR	0.6%	37%	5.0	2.7	3.5
4.2	Walker Buehler	R	@WSH	15.3%	52%	4.8	3.5	4.3
1.8	Hurston Waldrep	R	BAL	0.2%	39%	3.8	3.1	3.8
0.5	Jonathan Cannon	R	@COL	0.6%	54%	4.9	5.3	4.7
	TBD		TB	0.0%	54%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-1.1	German Marquez	R	CWS	1.0%	46%	4.6	5.3	4.2

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Between pitching fewer than 60 innings last season, and the potential of thumb soreness when he goes deep into games, Max Scherzer can't be counted on for more than five or six frames. However, with his strikeout potential, and support from an emerging Toronto Blue Jays offense, the veteran warrants a fantasy start.
Pitch inefficiency has forced Chad Patrick out of a few games earlier than the Milwaukee Brewers hoped, but he still tossed a respectable 89 2/3 innings with 93 strikeouts over the first half. A road start against the surging Miami Marlins won't be a cakewalk, but it's still a favorable fantasy matchup.
Michael Wacha struggled in his last outing, but he's been solid this season for the Kansas City Royals with eight quality starts in 17 efforts. Saturday brings a road start in the desert against an injury-riddled Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. Corbin Carroll is due back soon but he's out along with Gabriel Moreno and possibly Josh Naylor.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Nick Lodolo has allowed at least one home run in five straight starts. Granted, four were at home in Great American Ballpark, but with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Philadelphia Phillies, Lodolo still has to contend with a homer-friendly venue, not to mention a lineup with several batters capable of clearing the fence.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

After appearing to get back on track in a start against the Tampa Bay Rays, Walker Buehler has three straight subpar efforts, to the point Boston Red Sox manager needed to affirm Buehler was staying in the rotation. He's logged a 13.50 ERA and 2.56 WHIP over his previous 11 1/3 innings, fanning only eight with a bloated 14 free passes. On Friday, the Red Sox went to town on the Washington Nationals pitchers, expect the reverse on Saturday with Luis Garcia Jr, Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe and Keibert Ruiz all in play.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.