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Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Over the past couple of seasons, Houston Astros RHP Hayden Wesneski served as a swingman for the Chicago Cubs. Currently, he lines up for an extended stint in the Astros' injury-plagued rotation. Wesneski is off to a good start with 11 strikeouts with just three walks over 12 innings. On Sunday, the righty faces a surprising Los Angeles Angels offense, led by SS Kyren Paris, whose 1.514 OPS through Friday's action is one of the biggest stories of the early season. Even so, Wesneski is one of the highest ranked steamers on the Sunday docket.
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize altered his repertoire in the offseason, adding a slurve at the expense of his curve and slider. The early results are encouraging with 12 strikeouts and no homers allowed through 11 2/3 innings, though Mize has issued six free passes. Next up is a Minnesota Twins lineup exhibiting the fourth worst patience in the league, fueling the fourth fewest average runs per game in baseball.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
After an outstanding effort to open the season, Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz wasn't as sharp in his last time out, punching out just six with four walks in seven innings. Especially in head-to-head league, Sunday roster decisions are driven by needs, but avoiding Baz in close matchups makes sense with the Atlanta Braves visiting George Steinbrenner Field. As expected, the Rays temporary home is playing quite homer friendly.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.26 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.65 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.66 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.71 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.66 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
It's only mid-April, but the temperature in West Sacramento is expected to be in the mid-80s, helping Sutter Health Park play even smaller. Batters from the host Athletics Athletics and visiting New York Mets should benefit, especially the left-handed brethren with a pair of right-handers taking the hill. The home team's JJ Bleday along with the visitors Jesse Winker are the top plug-and-play options.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
After seemingly getting on track in Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox offense is back in a rut. They can break out at any time but avoiding them with Chicago White Sox RHP Shane Smith on the Rate Field hill is the safe play. There are other lineups to target on a full Sunday slate.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .253 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .260 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .261 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $59.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Mullins pulls a lot of his fly balls and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the games shallowest right field fences today.
Ryan O'Hearn | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.00 EV
One reason to bet this: O'Hearn's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (16 degrees over the last week) is significantly better than his 11.1 degree seasonal mark.
Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.22 EV
One reason to bet this: The shallowest right field dimensions in MLB are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Michael King | OVER 7.5 K (-120)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Brennan Miller projects as a "pitchers umpire" and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.
Cal Quantrill | OVER 3.5 K (-105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Quantrill has averaged 93.9 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Shane Baz | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.65 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the third-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Padres | NRFI (-135) Projection 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.52 EV
Cubs @ Dodgers | YRFI (-125) Projection 56% chance of RUN with a $0.24 EV
Rockies @ Padres | NRFI (-135) Projection 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.24 EV