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          Fantasy baseball Friday advice: Stream streaking Jameson Taillon

          Jameson Taillon has had a strong September and is the top streaming option Friday. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 27, 2024, 11:34 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file have been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Wild card coming down to the wire

          After a two-day hiatus due to Hurricane Helene, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves return to the field Friday. The NL East rivals are battling with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the last two wild-card spots in the National League.

          The Mets finish the regular season on the road with a series against the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. It's an interesting series since the Brewers are locked into the No. 3 seed and may end up facing the Mets into the wild-card round. The Brewers aren't going to lay down, but their primary focus will be aligning their pitching for next week, making sure their regulars are healthy and keeping their bullpen sharp.

          Brewers RHP Frankie Montas will square off with Mets LHP Sean Manaea in the opener. Manaea (78.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) has elevated his game to automatic start status. After "peaking" with a 4.16 ERA on June 19, Manaea has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP since, fully supported with 110 strikeouts to only 32 walks in 106⅔ innings.

          Montas' first three September outings were solid, as he recorded a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a whopping 28 punchouts in 17⅔ frames. However, Montas (13.1% rostered) was hit hard by the Diamondbacks last time out, surrendering seven earned runs on six hits (including three home runs) in just 2⅔ innings. The outing likely cost Montas a spot in the Brewers' wild-card rotation, though he could be in the divisional series mix if the club advances and Montas rebounds Friday.

          Even as opportunities to stream are waning with only three days left in the regular season (with the chance of a Mets-Atlanta twin bill Monday), Montas is a risky fantasy start. While Montas has something to prove, the Mets have more on the line. That said, the Mets could be rusty with the two-day hiatus and their recent struggles, so Montas is in play for the more desperate fantasy managers.

          The Braves stay home for a weekend set that epitomizes the current landscape of the game and host an interleague series between two teams vying for a playoff berth (because of the added wild-card entries). The Kansas City Royals are the opponent. They're jostling for the second and third American League wild card with the Detroit Tigers, while both clubs are trying to keep the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners at bay.

          The Braves will give the ball to NL Cy Young candidate Chris Sale. The southpaw was scheduled to pitch Wednesday, so he was unlikely to garner another start during the regular season, unless he was brought back on short rest Sunday. Pitching on Friday all but assures it will be Sale's last regular-season appearance, though he could be available for an inning or two if the Braves are playing for their playoff lives Monday. Sale is, of course, matchup proof, and he should be fresh for this important contest.

          The Royals will counter with RHP Brady Singer (63.4%). Heading into his last outing, Singer had yielded only four homers in 64⅓ innings since the All-Star break. He doubled that last Saturday after serving up four long balls to the San Francisco Giants in 5⅓ innings. Injuries have stripped the Braves lineup of a lot of pop, but they are still league average in terms of home run rate. Plus, Singer is not especially dominant, and the Braves strike out at a below-average clip, rendering Singer a risk.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • With their 7-2 win at home over the San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched the NL West title and a bye into the NLDS round. The Dodgers are one game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the best record in the NL and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, although the Phillies own the tiebreaker, having defeated the Dodgers five times in six meetings. The Dodgers close out the regular season on the road against the Colorado Rockies. Capturing the No. 1 seed could be adequate incentive for the Dodgers to play their regulars for much of the weekend set.

          • Well, I mean "most of their regulars" since Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman will miss the final regular-season series after rolling his ankle on Thursday night. Even though he may not have played in all three games, this is still a big blow to Freeman's fantasy team managers. Freeman is expected to be ready when the Dodgers open the NLDS.

          • The New York Yankees also took care of business yesterday, clinching the AL East crown. Coincidentally, they also enjoy a one-game lead for their league's best record and No. 1 seed. Unlike the Dodgers, the Yankees do carry the tiebreaker over AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians. Even so, some of the Yankees regulars may not be in the lineup tonight when the club entertains the Pittsburgh Pirates.

          • Los Angeles Angels SS Zach Neto was forced from yesterday's contest after hurting his shoulder while sliding into second in an attempt to advance on a pitch in the dirt. He left the game after the play and was diagnosed with shoulder irritation. Neto will be held out of today's game, but the Angels are hopeful he can return for the final two games of the regular season.

          • Minnesota Twins 1B/3B Jose Miranda missed last night's game due to lower-back tightness. His status for tonight's meeting with the Baltimore Orioles is uncertain. The Twins and Seattle Mariners are both three games out of the last wild card spot with only three games to go. A Twins loss will eliminate their postseason aspirations.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Friday's slate begins with a 2:20 p.m. ET matinee at Wrigley Field with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Cincinnati Reds. The home team will send RHP Jameson Taillon to the hill. Taillon (24.8%) checks in as the ledger's top-ranked streaming option. The veteran righty is enjoying a solid September with a 1.08 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in four starts. However, he has fanned just 19 in 25 frames, albeit with just five free passes and one home run allowed. The Reds strike out at an above-average clip, limiting Taillon's appeal.

          • Next up is Giants RHP Landen Roupp (1.3%) for a home date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Roupp spent the first five months of his career in the bullpen serving in a multi-inning capacity. In early September, Roupp took over for a struggling Blake Snell and tossed four scoreless frames. The 26-year-old rookie then moved to the rotation, where he has posted a 1.20 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's outpitching his peripherals (10 strikeouts and five walks over his past 15 innings) but is backed by one of the friendliest pitching venues. Roupp is in play facing a Cardinals lineup that has struggled to score down the stretch.

          • Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom isn't likely to throw the requisite five innings to qualify for a win, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities on the road against the Los Angeles Angels. In his two outings, deGrom has hurled 61 and 58 pitches, lasting 3⅔ and 3 innings, respectively. He has rung up nine hitters while issuing just one free pass over those 6⅔ innings. Even if deGrom musters three innings, he'll support ratios while supplying strikeouts facing a weak Angels lineup.

          • Betting tip of the day: Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers sport Friday's highest implied run total in their matchup with the Rockies at Coors Field. This should provide RHB Mookie Betts with at least five trips to the plate against one of the weakest pitching staffs in the league. Bet on Betts to go over 3.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+120).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday