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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday

          Christian Scott is Sunday's streamer to watch as he faces the Marlins. Fiume/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJul 21, 2024, 11:48 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          July Fireworks

          Historically, offense increases in July with warm and humid weather benefiting the distance fly balls travel. Sure enough, this year is following suit. The average fly ball distance is still down from last season, but July homers and July BABIP are both up, resulting in more runs per game.

          One of the repercussions of the perceived dead ball was fly ball pitchers benefited disproportionately more from the environment in the cooler months. With the mercury rising, it will be interesting to see if pitchers of this ilk suffer down the stretch.

          Two of the prime examples are slated to take the hill on Sunday. They are Chicago Cubs SP Shota Imanaga and Kansas City Royals SP Seth Lugo.

          Imanaga has mostly avoided potential pitfalls over his past four outings, though he was lit up by the New York Mets for 10 runs on 11 hits in three frames in late June. He rebounded over his last three efforts with a trio of quality starts. To his credit, Imanaga does the two things most pertinent to avoiding a drop in performance as he carries an above average strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate.

          Prior to his last outing, Lugo also was able to fend off the repercussions of added fly ball distance. Before the break, Lugo surrendered five runs on 10 hits to the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park, but it was mostly the approach of the Red Sox lineup and not being victimized by fly balls. Lugo also limits walks, but not to the extent of Imanaga. Lugo's strikeout rate is around league average, which is palatable, but also renders him more vulnerable than Imanaga.

          Of the two, Imanaga has a better chance of maintaining better production. He's due some organic regression (2.97 ERA compared to a 3.77 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA), but so long as Imanaga maintains his current skills level, a few more homers aren't going to hurt him too much. Lugo, on the other hand, is more susceptible to a decline in performance.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • The Atlanta Braves placed SP Max Fried on the 15-day IL due to left forearm neuritis. It's unclear how long he'll be out, although a minimum stay is unlikely. The club recalled SP Dylan Dodd to take Fried's roster spot, and possibly also his turn in the rotation.

          • Detroit Tigers SP Reese Olson was placed on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder strain. He managed just two innings in Saturday's start. The Tigers are already thin in the rotation with SP Casey Mize also on the IL.

          • The Tampa Bay Rays placed SP Ryan Pepiot on the 15-day IL as a result of a knee infection. It's unclear who will take Pepiot's turn in the rotation on Tuesday, although SP Jeffrey Springs should be able to join the club next weekend and slide into Pepiot's spot.

          • The Houston Astros reported that OF Kyle Tucker has ramped up his on-field activities from light to intense. It's still unclear when Tucker will be able to embark on a rehab assignment. Before he fouled a ball off his shin in early June, Tucker was one of the top fantasy performers.

          • Following up a note from yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that SS Bo Bichette will be out for multiple weeks thanks to a moderate right calf strain. Look for Leo Jimenez to see the majority of the action at shortstop, with help from Ernie Clement and perhaps Addison Barger.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Keep in mind Sunday marks the end of the extended fantasy period, beginning July 8. We're spared the early start this week with action kicking off at a reasonable 1:05 p.m. ET. After taking a week off to cover the MLB draft, the ESPN Sunday night game returns with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Red Sox.

          • The highest ranked streamer on the ledger is Mets SP Christian Scott (7.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Scott has a road date with the Miami Marlins. The rookie right-hander hasn't displayed the potential teased as a prospect, but sometimes it takes a bit before freshman find their footing. Sunday avails the percent spot to turn things around as Scott will face the team averaging the second fewest runs per game in MLB.

          • Facing the Marlins isn't always smooth sailing. In his last start heading into the break, Cincinnati Reds SP Andrew Abbott yielded five runs in 3 1/3 innings to Miami. However, he was pitching well previously, and will the break to reboot, Abbott should regain form in the nation's capital. The lefty squares off with a Washington Nationals lineup sporting the third worst wOBA with a lefty on the hill.

          • After auditioning several candidates over the first two months of the season, the Atlanta Braves have seemingly found their fifth starter with Spencer Schwellenbach (10.5% rostered). Schwellenbach's 4.43 ERA is misleading as evidenced by a 3.87 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA. Sunday's matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals will be a challenge, as their lineup has an above average wOBA facing right-handers, but Schwellenbach still checks in as one of the slates better streaming options.

          • Digging deep. Philadelphia Philles SP Tyler Phillips is in play, especially for those needing some strikeouts. Phillips has punched out an impressive 12 hitters while allowing no walks in his inaugural 10 MLB innings. On Sunday, Phillips draws a Pittsburgh Pirates offense with the sixth highest strikeout rate facing righties.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Pittsburgh Pirates are sending LHP Marco Gonzales to the hill today in PNC Park to face the potent Philadelphia Phillies. Gonzales can be effective, but he doesn't fan many batters -- and when Trea Turner and Alec Bohm put the ball in play, good things usually happen. I'll take the both players to go over 2.5 total hits + runs + RBI, Turner at +115 and Bohm at +120.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday