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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday's MLB games

          Justin Steele looks to rebound against the Pirates in his fourth start of the season. Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterMay 16, 2024, 10:26 AM ET
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Cubs lefty can return to form just in time

          A mere four pitchers earned more NL Cy Young votes than Chicago Cubs LHP Justin Steele last season, so it was reasonable for fantasy baseball managers to expect another high level of performance in 2024. Steele capitalized on his surprising 2022 emergence and won 16 games in his follow-up, with a 3.06 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched, and many targeted him among the top-20 pitchers and top-100 players in ESPN drafts.

          However, Steele enters Thursday night's home game with the Pirates at a bit of a fantasy crossroads. Yeah, it doesn't take much to concern overreactive fantasy managers. Steele missed five weeks with a hamstring injury suffered during his Opening Day start at Texas, returned with a scoreless but brief outing versus San Diego, and then struggled last week against the Pirates, permitting six runs, including three home runs, over four innings. He has failed to reach five innings in his three outings this season.

          One IL stint plus one rough outing sent once-excited investors scrambling, and Steele is down to 88% rostered in ESPN standard leagues. Last season, he was a top-20 points league pitcher. One may say this Pirates rematch -- and he has to face Pirates rookie RHP Jared Jones and his 2.68 ERA and 0.87 WHIP -- is a critical one for Steele. He can't match the hard-throwing Jones for stuff. Steele averages only 92 MPH with his fastball, and he tosses either a fastball or slider more than 97% of the time. Steele walks a fine line with his skill set, but we have already seen it work.

          Things should improve. Steele permitted only 14 home runs in 173 1/3 innings last season, inducing ground balls at a 49% clip and avoiding hard contact. Pirates Connor Joe, Oneil Cruz and Michael Taylor homered off him in a two-inning span at Pittsburgh last week. Fantasy managers want to see a solid six innings out of one of the top hurlers from last season, and if they do not get it on Thursday night, more will move on with the Braves up next week. We will see if that is wise.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Houston Astros SP Ronel Blanco began serving his 10-game suspension resulting from umpires finding a foreign substance in his glove on Monday. After initially indicating he would appeal, Blanco decided against it. He'll be able to return on May 26. In the interim, the Astros must play a man short since Blanco can't be replaced on the 26-man roster. Hunter Brown will return to the rotation in Blanco's spot over the weekend.

          • Last night, 2B Jonathan India was scratched due to a migraine. Spencer Steer filled in at the keystone with recently recalled Jacob Hurtubise getting the nod in left field. Elly De La Cruz didn't start for the first time this season, although his rest day was interrupted by a pinch-hitting appearance in the top of the eighth inning. Santiago Espinal garnered the start at shortstop, and he accounted for the Cincinnati Reds' lone tally in their 2-1 road loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

          • Before the game, the Reds placed SP Nick Lodolo on the 15-day IL due to a strained left groin. Lodolo says he pitched with the injury last Saturday in San Francisco, but it hasn't gotten much better. He's likely to be on an innings limit after missing most of last season anyway, so it makes sense to play it safe. Lodolo is hopeful that he'll require only a minimum stay.

          • Last night, the Chicago Cubs were without 2B/SS Nico Hoerner for the second straight game as he continues to nurse a sore hamstring. Hoerner is questionable for today's opener of a four-game series in Wrigley Field against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Javier Assad stymied the slumping Atlanta Braves offense on Wednesday with six scoreless frames in the Cubs' 7-1 win at Truist Park. He scattered four hits and a walk, fanning seven. For the season, Assad has yet to yield more than two earned runs in any of his nine starts. Assad's next outing is a rematch with the Braves, this time at home.

          • The Seattle Mariners played shorthanded again as C/DH Mitch Garver (back spasms) and 2B Jorge Polanco (hamstring) both missed action for the second straight game. The club is off today, so the duo's availability for a weekend series in Baltimore is unclear.

          • Tampa Bay Rays reliever Pete Fairbanks missed Monday's night's game against the Boston Red Sox due to a cut on his finger. He was able to pitch on Tuesday and was back in action again last night, hurling a clean eighth inning while collecting his first hold of the season in the Rays' 4-3 victory. Kevin Kelly captured his first save, becoming the seventh Rays reliever to record one this season.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • Minnesota Twins RHP Joe Ryan should throw the day's first pitch, roughly around 1:10 p.m. ET, against New York Yankees SS Anthony Volpe. Most Thursdays see a limited schedule, and this one is no different with six games, though only one during the afternoon. Ryan is thriving this season, posting quality starts in six of eight outings, permitting no more than three earned runs in a game. He has permitted a .640 OPS to current Yankees in his brief work, fanning Aaron Judge in three of seven at-bats. Ryan has not faced the incomparable Juan Soto.

          • Philadelphia Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker makes his fourth start of the season, having won his first three and reaching six innings in each of them. Walker, in his second season of a lucrative four-year deal, pushed thriving RHP Spencer Turnbull out of the rotation upon his return to health, but he has a 4.82 ERA and 5.27 FIP so far. His fastball velocity, which topped 94 MPH most of his recent tenure with the Mets, is down to 91.1 MPH, and his 26.8% ground ball rate would rank as easily the lowest in the sport, if he had more innings. In other words, be careful here, even versus a middling Mets lineup. Volume and innings matter in points leagues, but do not assume a victory every time out with a pitcher featuring misleading stats.

          • The final scheduled game of the day features the MLB strikeout leader and one of the top contenders for the NL Cy Young award, according to ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow has no misleading stats. He has whiffed double-digit hitters in four of his past six starts, permitting more than two earned runs in only one of them. It is safe to say fantasy investors expect him to pitch well each outing.

          • Betting tip of the day: As noted earlier, the Reds are no longer starting Nick Lodolo and there is a strong likelihood that more than a few Cincinnati hurlers will appear -- and several will permit runs. Glasnow should cruise again, so over 8.5 strikeouts (-115) seems likely, as does a Dodgers win (although with little payoff at -330). Let's go with Mookie Betts cracking a home run at +425.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday