Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Monday
Noah Cameron's 2.56 ERA is tabbed about two runs too low by the associated ERA estimators as he's benefiting from a .206 BABIP and 84.4% left on base mark. The rookie left-hander is ripe for a surface stats correction but with the Kansas City Royals hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cameron should be safe for at least one more start as he'll face the offense sporting the second highest strikeout rate and third lowest wOBA facing southpaw pitching.
It was an odd first half for Brady Singer in his first season with the Cincinnati Reds. His ground ball tendencies were expected to help him limit homers in the Great American Ballpark. While his home runs are under control, he's become a fly ball pitcher. His BABIP has followed suit by dropping, but a big uptick in walks has mitigated giving up fewer hits. Singer still warrants streaming consideration, but it requires facing an inpatient lineup without much power. The Miami Marlins fit the bill, so Singer is in play when the clubs meet on Monday.
Streaming against the top team in the American League may seem risky, but much of the Detroit Tigers success is due to pitching and timely hitting. Their scoring runs despite a league average wOBA and above average strikeout rate. Even so, it takes a pitcher with the upside of Shane Baz to trust against the Tigers. The Tampa Bay Rays have been working with Baz and throwing fewer four-seam fastballs while introducing a cutter has him back on track with 20 strikeouts and only two walks over his past two starts, spanning 15 frames.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
Freddy Peralta isn't struggling, but he isn't dominating either. The Milwaukee Brewers are home against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is a busy week with 95 games, so avoiding Peralta for this tough matchup could help you stay out of a hole to begin the week.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.01 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.01 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.03 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.74 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.71 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora has been successfully platooning versus left-handed pitching, including the last two games of the Fourth of July weekend road set with the Washington Nationals. The club is back home tonight, with the Colorado Rockies sending Austin Gomber to the Fenway Park hill. Nate Eaton, Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela all enjoy the platoon edge on a vulnerable lefty.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year. His .315 mark is deflated compared to his .354 expected wOBA, based on my projections.
Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.64 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.6 mph in this matchup, the second-most favorable of the day for bats.
Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Langford's 12.6 Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) grades out in the 80th percentile this year.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jose Berrios | UNDER 5.5 K (-155)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the No. 26 stadium in the league for strikeouts, via my projections.
Landen Roupp | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.58 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Oracle Park as the second-worst field in MLB for strikeouts.
Austin Gomber | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.24 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks). This game is predicted to have the second-hottest weather (84 degrees) of all games on the slate.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Blue Jays @ White Sox | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of RUN with a $1.42 EV
Dodgers @ Brewers | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $0.45 EV
Rays @ Tigers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.67 EV