We are now roughly one-quarter into the 2024 fantasy baseball season. When it comes to closers, as always, two words tend to resonate: opportunity and volatility. A pitcher cannot accrue saves or holds (deserved or not) without that chance to do so, and there are few guarantees for performance and health even for the most trusted of the relief pitchers. It happens every season. Opportunity and volatility. You know the drill. Rinse and repeat.
Still, fantasy managers must invest in relief pitchers and hope for the best, so it seems like a wise time for the latest Stock Watch, aiming to explain some of the positives and negatives of the key fantasy role through the first six or so weeks. Only three-quarters of the fantasy baseball season remain. There will be lots of -- say it with me -- opportunity and volatility. Pace yourselves.
Stock rising
Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres: He entered this week leading all RP-eligible players (including the multi-eligible starting pitchers) in ESPN fantasy points. That is quite a feat, especially since Suarez was hardly among the more coveted pitchers on draft day. He was a late-round pick, at best, and remains available in nearly 20% of ESPN standard leagues. Suarez is not trying to fool hitters. He is throwing his fastball 91.3% of the time, and it is working. Opposing batters are 7-for-63 against him. Enjoy the ride. Suarez should continue to be a top-five fantasy closer.
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians: Coming off an outstanding 2022 season, Clase was probably the first relief pitcher off the board in your 2023 drafts. Sadly, then came the mighty surprising volatility. Clase blew 12 saves, lost nine games and his strikeout rate plummeted. He saved 44 games, but it came with a 3.22 ERA. Clase appears to be back to his 2022 form, boasting an 0.47 ERA. The Guardians play so many close games, so this may well be another 40-save season.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics: The hardest thrower in the sport is handling his new role in the bullpen quite well, striking out a ridiculous 55% of hitters faced. The Athletics are not a good baseball team, but Miller still has eight saves, despite the team handling him carefully. Miller has a long history of arm injuries, which is why he is not starting games, and he has yet to pitch on consecutive days. The dominant Miller may not get to 30 saves, but he seems likely to surpass 100 strikeouts with excellent peripherals, if healthy.
Kirby Yates, Texas Rangers: So much for Jose Leclerc finally becoming the 30-save option we have craved for years. It's like we never learn. Leclerc failed, of course, and Yates has stepped in to become one of the top waiver pickups of the early season. Yates, 37, is no stranger to closing. He saved 41 games for the 2019 Padres. He barely pitched since then, though, thanks to elbow woes, before handling a setup role in Atlanta last season. Having permitted only one earned run through 14 appearances, Yates may enjoy his second top-five closing season.
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees: Meet the lone qualified relief pitcher with a spotless ERA! Holmes saved 44 games over the last two full seasons, but is already at 12 saves in 2024 and likely to reach a career high. As always, Holmes misses enough bats to help us, but what really separates him from others is the outstanding ground ball rate (71%).
Reed Garrett, New York Mets: Who? Not all of the valuable fantasy relief pitchers pile on the saves. The Mets have Edwin Diaz. He is great and one of the top closers in fantasy again after missing 2023. Garrett represents the annual emergence of journeyman right-hander who somehow "figures things out" and becomes dependable, until everything changes back to the norm again. That may not happen this summer, though. Garrett has only one save through 14 games and 21 innings, but has allowed only one run thanks in part to a 42% strikeout rate. Will it last? Probably not, but we can all enjoy these stats now and then find the next fellow.
Stock falling
Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants: The first relief pitcher off the draft board hasn't necessarily struggled, but you will not find him among the top-50 RP-eligibles in ESPN fantasy points. Blame the walks, mainly. Doval is pacing at barely 60 IP, so his usage is down a bit, and for the first time he has had difficulty throwing strikes. His WHIP is 1.47. He hasn't blown a save, but has earned himself only six chances, which is not his fault. Still, this is a reminder that even the top expected reliever is no lock to thrive.
Josh Hader, Houston Astros: The No. 2 reliever from many a draft board entered this week with a 5.29 ERA and only five saves, the latter mark a byproduct of Houston's early-season sputtering. Perhaps few have noticed or given it much credence, but Hader posted a 3.95 ERA in the truncated 2020 and an alarming 5.22 ERA in 2022. In 2021 and 2023, he was arguably the best relief pitcher in the sport. Is this an "every other year" thing? Probably not, but if the Astros do not turn things around, it will be tough for Hader to save 30 games for the fifth consecutive full season.
Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays: A sore elbow kept Romano out for first half of April, and he has not dominated since his return, either. Romano fanned at least 28% of hitters over each of his first five seasons, but he is at barely 20% this season. He has permitted a run in four out of his nine appearances and, though it is a small sample, left-handed hitters are enjoying a .982 OPS against him, though that comes with a .417 BABIP. Romano had 36 saves in both of the last two seasons. He's only 31. Still, perhaps the elbow injury remains an issue, and we can't presume top-10 reliever performance.
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates: Much like Romano, fantasy managers may have just assumed excellent performance from Bednar because he has done it for years and, unlike potential Hall of Famers Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen, there was little to worry about in his numbers. There is now. Bednar has permitted 15 earned runs over 16 innings and he has thrown more than one strikeout only once in his last 12 appearances. He has had some rough BABIP luck, and a 43% LOB mark is wildly low. As with Romano, injury may explain this, as Bednar nursed a sore lat muscle in March. Still, it is dangerous to presume Romano and Bednar produce their 2023 stats the rest of the way.
Carlos Estevez, Los Angeles Angels: Estevez saved 31 games last year, his first season since leaving Colorado, but many expected free-agent signee Robert Stephenson to push him aside in 2024. Stephenson, however, battled shoulder soreness in March, then his elbow blew up and now he is out for the season thanks to Tommy John surgery. Estevez seems likely to lose the closer role at some point -- to somebody. While we like that he has permitted nary a walk, serving up three homers over his last four outings mitigates the strike throwing. Estevez is no longer on the Rockies, but that may be hard to tell given the numbers.