I must admit, after all these years of disseminating controversial thoughts in the annual "Do Not Draft" columns, it's far easier to find players I do not want on my teams at their current ADP (average draft position). It's always about the ADP/value. Those names seem obvious to me, for various reasons, and it isn't difficult to explain those reasons.
But it's a far different feel for players I actually do covet for my teams. Value ranges across formats, timing and myriad other factors, so often the best way to compile a "Do Draft" list is simply to draft a few dozen times and see who ends up on your teams. Hey, it works for me.
Fantasy baseball drafts are really about the numbers and the value, so while a certain rehabbing Atlanta Braves outfielder and all the Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are to be avoided at their current ADP, I can find many others whose ADP are quite appealing. After all, even among colleagues and industry analysts, we disagree quite a bit. In addition, while some of you will stick with ESPN's shallower, standard leagues (only nine hitters, seven pitchers, three bench spots), many others participate in considerably deeper formats, with my hand raised here.
Let's go position-by-position and talk a bit about some of the players who keep ending up on my teams. Clearly, I do want to draft them at their ADP and perhaps you will, too. We broadly use ESPN ADP, which is points-based, even though I am more of a roto/categories fellow and pay attention to nationally recognized NFBC (roto) as well.
First base
This is not a notably deep fantasy position, certainly not the way it used to be, but I tend to be fading the top options (going for shortstop and outfield instead) and landing on new Astro Christian Walker, new Yankee Paul Goldschmidt and returning Brewer Rhys Hoskins. These might not be league winners or upside choices, but they are overlooked, 30-something veterans. Walker's oblique injury has him falling in drafts, but it isn't serious. Goldschmidt might hit cleanup. Hoskins probably will, too. None are costing a top-100 pick. I just want some safe power here.
Deeper: When in doubt, check the plate discipline. New National Nathaniel Lowe, new Pirate Spencer Horwitz (only out a few weeks) and old/new Guardian Carlos Santana all draw walks and get on base for points leagues, but they matter in roto, too. ... Both the Rockies' Michael Toglia and the Reds' Christian Encarnacion-Strand could launch 30 home runs. These are usable corner infield options. ... Even deeper, I like the Orioles' Ryan O'Hearn and the Mariners' Luke Raley.
Second base
Similarly, I have been fading the top-100 options such as the Astros' Jose Altuve or Braves' Ozzie Albies, rather focusing on mid-draft options who feel undervalued. The Orioles' Jordan Westburg stands out. He might hit 25 home runs. ... I realize Cubs rookie Matt Shaw is unproven at this level, but I can't help myself after Round 15. He is eligible at three infield spots. ... In roto, fast Brewer Brice Turang and fast Phillie Bryson Stott both offer strong value. ... The Nationals' Luis Garcia Jr. was the No. 4 2B on last season's Player Rater, but it seems as if everyone believes he was a fluke.
Deeper: Young Marlin Connor Norby has both power and speed, and he will play. He'd better play. ... The Rays' Brandon Lowe hit 21 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and now plays half the games in a minor league park tailored to left-handed sluggers. Wishing for 30 HR is reasonable. ... Zack Gelof of the A's has power and speed and a minor league park, too. If only he could make more contact. ... By the way, Horwitz is also eligible at 2B.
Third base
Start with young Rays slugger Junior Caminero, who hits for power to all fields and should knock in 100 runs hitting third or fourth in this lineup. Again, he also gets a minor league ballpark. Caminero's projection and points league ADP are both low. ... What more does the Giants' Matt Chapman need to do to belong in everyone's top 100? The No. 4 3B on last year's Player Rater has hit 27 home runs in three out of four seasons. ... Mark Vientos is a far better value six rounds later than his Mets teammate Pete Alonso. It's not outrageous to expect Vientos to produce better numbers. ... I keep finding the safe power of the Rangers' Jake Burger, the Astros' Isaac Paredes and the Diamondbacks' Eugenio Suarez in drafts. Safe power works.
Deeper: I don't necessarily recommend Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado, but the No. 12 3B from last year retains top-200 overall value, still, and he is available after that in many leagues. ... Perhaps this is finally the year the Rangers' Josh Jung stays healthy. It's worth a shot. ... Brewers second-year player Joey Ortiz is way off the board, but he went for 11 homers and 11 steals as a rookie, and he should add 2B and/or SS eligibility. Is 20/20 a reach? ... Toronto's Ernie Clement has 20-homer upside.
Shortstop
This position is loaded. For example, we can easily make the case, in roto, for Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. at No. 1 over Shohei Ohtani, and for flashy Met Francisco Lindor over heralded teammate Juan Soto. ... I also like the Phillies' Trea Turner, probably leading off again, at the end of Round 2. Washington's CJ Abrams is Turner-like, sans the batting average. ... The Rockies' Ezequiel Tovar is a top-100 player in roto, and his home/road splits were even, which is unusual for a Colorado hitter. ... The Yankees' Anthony Volpe, the Cubs' Dansby Swanson and the Astros' Jeremy Pena are all strong values in the middle rounds.
Deeper: The Angels' Zach Neto (shoulder) might be out for Opening Day, but his steep ADP fall is way too much. What a great, if brief, stash/IR option. ... Marlins starter Xavier Edwards aims to steal 60 bases. Take the under, but not by much. ... Most fantasy managers could cut Red Sox prospect Kristian Campbell before April ends if he ends up starting the season at Triple-A. But what if he makes the team? Knowing starting SS Trevor Story and his health track record, Campbell and Marcelo Mayer should both end up playing in Boston at some point in 2025.
Outfield
Astros star Yordan Alvarez always hits for both power and average, but he never receives first-round attention. He deserves it. Juan Soto versus Alvarez in roto formats is not only a fair fight, but it probably favors Alvarez. If you get the last pick in a draft, Alvarez plus one of the aces is a perfect combo at the turn of Round 1 and start of Round 2. ... I am all-in for Brent Rooker (DH only for now) and Lawrence Butler of the A's -- and much later, JJ Bleday, too. I don't think this is all about the minor league stadium, either. Rooker could blast 50 homers. Butler offers 30/30 vibes. ... Give me all of the Brenton Doyle shares. He's leading off, so he will hit more, and he is capable of 40 steals.
Look at what the Brewers' Christian Yelich did in half a season. He's healthy now, his back problem hopefully fixed. He's a clear top 100 for me. ... I don't know if the Nationals' Dylan Crews hits 20 homers, but he will steal 40 bases. ... The Rays' Josh Lowe went 20/32 two seasons ago. Major upside, worth dreaming of a repeat. ... The Yankees' Jasson Dominguez has the same upside. ... It's not wild that I think new Brave Jurickson Profar reenacts 2024 again.
Deeper: The Rockies' Nolan Jones went 20/20 as a rookie. He has the skills to return to this level. ... The Brewers view Garrett Mitchell as a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, and he runs, too. ... Perhaps Phillies starter Brandon Marsh will never hit lefties, but 16 homers and 19 steals are relevant. ... No pressure on new Phillie Max Kepler, but he did swat 24 home runs in 2023. ... Finally, throw a late pick on speedsters Chandler Simpson of the Rays and the Cardinals' Victor Scott II. If they win jobs, they will run ... a lot.
Catcher
I always wait in ESPN's one-catcher formats, because the Angels' Logan O'Hoppe, the Twins' Ryan Jeffers and the Athletics' Shea Langeliers should all pass 20 home runs again -- and they might not go at all. Terrific values, and those who take a catcher in Round 9 could regret it. ... For typical, multicatcher formats, we must watch Yankee Austin Wells, especially if he leads off. ... It sure seems as if the Pirates' Joey Bart is a 20-homer option.
Deeper: The Cardinals' Ivan Herrera might produce Gabriel Moreno numbers at a fraction of the cost. ... Braves prospect Drake Baldwin should win the initial starting job and might keep it even when Sean Murphy is healthy. ... The Rockies' Hunter Goodman could see his home run total surpass that of his walks. That's a problem, but 20 homers sure do matter in multicatcher formats.
Starting pitcher
I like any of the top tier fellows (Pirates' Paul Skenes, Tigers' Tarik Skubal, Phillies' Zack Wheeler) enough to go there early in Round 2, but then I tend to wait. ... Astros LHP Framber Valdez thrives every year. ... The Mariners' RHPs aside from homer-prone Luis Castillo are safe, and I am not worried about George Kirby (shoulder), who has slipped too far in ADP. ... Durable RHPs Aaron Nola (Phillies) and Logan Webb (Giants) remain underrated anchors. Take them both. ... I'm definitely in with Cubs LHPs Shota Imanaga and the underrated Justin Steele. Plus, they're getting an additional "bonus" start thanks to the Tokyo Series. ... Give me all the Astros RHPs (Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti). The last time the Houston staff had an ERA over 4.12 (full season) was 2013.
Moving to the middle rounds, why can't the Royals' Seth Lugo thrive again? He can. ... The same goes for former Astros LHP Yusei Kikuchi (now with the Angels). That's a lot of strikeouts. ... I keep getting Twins RHP Joe Ryan and Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez. ... It's (way past) time for Padres RHP Nick Pivetta to have his top-100 season. ... Rays RHP Taj Bradley can strike out 200 hitters and so can Pirates RHP Jared Jones. ... Guardians RHP Gavin Williams appears to be healthy, finally.
Deeper: Mets LHP Sean Manaea (oblique) might not miss much time. He is an ADP bargain now. ... I am more likely to invest in Blue Jays RHP Max Scherzer than Giants RHP Justin Verlander, but both warrant late-round attention. ... New Brewers LHP Nestor Cortes should enjoy his NL debut season with a solid ERA. ... The ballpark impedes them, but Reds LHP Nick Lodolo misses many bats, and RHP Nick Martinez has teased for years. ... Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly boasts three consecutive seasons with a sub-1.20 WHIP. ... New Orioles RHP Charlie Morton isn't done yet.
Relief pitcher
Potential Felix Bautista investors might worry about his volume this season, but I do not. ... Brewers RHP Trevor Megill had 18 saves and a 2.05 ERA at the 2024 All-Star break. This might be a steal of a top-10 closer. ... New Angel Kenley Jansen is not young, but he has saved 25 games in every full season for more than a decade and enters the season No. 4 on the all-time saves list. ... Somewhat similarly, Nationals RHP Kyle Finnegan will give up runs, but he will get saves. ... Give me bargain Lucas Erceg as the Royals closer. ... Watch Red Sox RHP Liam Hendriks save 30 games.
Deeper: The Guardians' Cade Smith, the Cubs' Porter Hodge, Diamondbacks' A.J. Puk and Rangers' Robert Garcia will each earn more than a few saves this season. ... So will the Rays' Edwin Uceta, the Pirates' Dennis Santana and the Phillies' Orion Kerkering. The presumed closers for Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are not durable fellows. ... Someone must close for the lowly White Sox, and first up appears to be former starter Mike Clevinger. This should be interesting.