Many reasonable baseball fans concur that the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers may be even better this season, as their mighty offseason spending spree landed the organization a new top, young Japanese starting pitcher (Roki Sasaki), a heralded, two-time Cy Young award winner (Blake Snell), two potential closers -- one left-handed (Tanner Scott) and the other right-handed (Kirby Yates) -- as well as the return of a future Hall of Fame lefty (Clayton Kershaw) who leads all active pitchers in ERA and is in the top three in wins, strikeouts and WAR.
For fantasy baseball purposes, however, all may not be what it seems. Oh, some Dodgers hurlers will offer plenty of intriguing numbers in our game, but perhaps few (if any) will reach their perceived preseason fantasy value. That's what we are talking about here as we grind out another sure to be misinterpreted "Do Not Draft" article, highlighting the players whose average live draft (ADP) excitement may not match the pending statistics. Thus, do not draft them at their current ADP.
We are not trying to pick on the Dodgers, but they tend to get a lot of notice and, as a result, so do their players. Fantasy managers gravitate toward them -- perhaps a bit too much. After all, no Dodgers pitcher accumulated more than 25 starts or 150 IP last season and the one who came closest, RHP Gavin Stone, is out for this season thanks to shoulder trouble. While some could interpret this phenomenon as bad luck, the fact is the analytics-driven Dodgers organization chooses to avoid pushing pitcher workloads, and they are built to do it again.
RHP Tyler Glasnow is excellent, but his 22 starts last season were a career high. Neither of their recent overseas additions (RHPs Yoshinobu Yamamoto and this year's prize Sasaki) are durable, either. Yamamoto threw 90 innings last season. Sasaki has averaged 101 innings over the past two seasons. Snell has qualified for the ERA title in just two of his eight full seasons, although those were obviously awesome seasons. Meanwhile, RHP Shohei Ohtani, on the mend from Tommy John surgery and the best hitter in the sport, may or may not start some games in the season's first half. Kershaw probably will not. Aside from Ohtani, avoid these all of these pitchers at their current value.
The Dodgers boast unique rotational depth and they are in no hurry to push any of these fellows to more than 150 innings. They are pushing for October, only. Fantasy managers cannot wait that long. We are not patient. No Dodger has thrown 150 innings since 2022, nor saved 25 games since 2021 -- and that may not change in 2025. And, despite massive attention in ESPN ADP last season, no Dodgers pitchers ended up securely in the top 50 of the Player Rater. Volume matters. Don't assume Dodgers pitchers offer volume in 2025, nor assume anyone sails past 20 saves because, on this club, nobody needs to.
Other players to avoid taking too early
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers: OK, one more Dodger needs calling out and, unfortunately, it is one we all love. Freeman, 35, saw a major decline in his numbers last season, including his lowest OPS since 2015. He suffered an ankle injury late in the season and limped through the playoffs, although he was still the MVP of the World Series. However, manager Dave Roberts claims he will be cautious with Freeman and his ankle this season -- as he should.
That's enough for me to push Freeman out of Round 2 for roto/categories formats, where he was grouped with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper. Remain concerned in points formats, too, as volume is critical. Freeman retains value even if he turns into former Dodgers SS Corey Seager, who produces big with fewer games, but Seager isn't 35, either. All this said, some Dodgers are solid values, such as OF Teoscar Hernandez and C Will Smith. However, avoid demoted 2B Hyeseong Kim.
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks: As with Freeman, of course I don't hate Burnes, but the actual statistical value just doesn't match his lofty ADP. Burnes enjoyed his solid single season with the Baltimore Orioles, except for the falling strikeout rate, which is a notable four-year trend and one to take seriously. Burnes has outpitched his FIP for three consecutive seasons, and we cannot assume the friendly BABIP continues indefinitely.
Also as with Freeman, Burnes remains ranked quite well, in this case as a top-10 fantasy starter (albeit barely) and I view a clear drop after the top tier (Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler). Stick with safer hitters in Rounds 2-4, rather than aces who may not actually be aces anymore. Other highly ranked pitchers whose strikeout rates must concern us include Seattle Mariners RHP Luis Castillo and Toronto Blue Jays RHPs Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers: This is the recognized No. 1 catcher regardless of format, but his hitting numbers -- especially in one-catcher ESPN standard leagues -- do not warrant his inclusion in the third round with the likes of Harper, Rafael Devers and Manny Machado.
Contreras batted 679 times last season, which is a ridiculous figure for a catcher since the wear-and-tear of the position contributes to a steady influx of injury and physical compromise. It's tough to justify any catcher going in the top 50. Compare the expected Contreras numbers to those of some of the backstops that may go undrafted in the final rounds (such as Logan O'Hoppe of the Los Angeles Angels and Ryan Jeffers of the Minnesota Twins) and you may be surprised.
Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Guardians: Somewhat similarly, I annually reserve a space on this list for the No. 1 closer in ADP and, once again, it's Clase. Relief pitchers are important regardless of format, but not important enough to be top-50 picks.
In roto, they supply the saves, but the top closers better pile on the strikeouts, too. Clase posted an unsustainable 0.61 ERA. It's just not happening again, especially with an underwhelming 24% K rate. Don't forget Clase's ERA in 2023 was 3.22. In addition, nobody has ever saved 40 games in four consecutive seasons. Clase can get there in 2025, but I don't think he does.
I am actually not fading saves (as I usually do), because it's a mess after the first 12-or-so closers, but I cannot take a closer over an anchor hitter in the first eight-or-so rounds. New York Yankees RHP Devin Williams (who missed more than half of 2024!) and Athletics RHP Mason Miller (now pitching in Sacramento!) both belong on this list as well.
Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves: Don't draft last season's statistics, especially when the player was already such a risk in previous campaigns. Yes, Sale was awesome and earned his NL Cy Young award, but he enters his age-36 season with the same durability concerns he had a year ago. Players don't become more durable in their mid-30s. Sale is too much of a risk in Round 3.
I will always wait a few rounds for durable right-handers such as the Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants and Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies, even knowing a 2.38 ERA isn't pending. While we root for awesome Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom (he is 36) to make more than 15 starts for the first time since 2019, c'mon. He avoids his own blurb here because his ADP is reasonable -- generally outside the top 100 -- but I doubt it remains there for long.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves: As with the Dodgers, we are not picking on the Braves, but sometimes the top players on the best teams get overrated in fantasy. Acuna wrecked his left knee last May, and the Braves aren't even pretending he's going to return this April. They also acknowledge he seems unlikely to steal many bases. How many red flags do we need in fantasy? Does Acuna play as many as 120 games? No way I would take that risk in the first three rounds.
Every season, fantasy managers over-draft injured players on the assumption they will "return soon." Granted, Acuna isn't an ordinary player, but look at his numbers the last time he returned from an ACL tear. They were rather ordinary. In 2026, OK, perhaps he returns to Round 1 levels. Let someone else deal with the uncertainty.
I will also include Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. here because he is always on the mend from something and annually over-coveted. I hope Twins 3B Royce Lewis doesn't belong in this category yet with his teammate OF Byron Buxton, but Buxton barely goes in drafts today.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners: The concern here is about batting average and strikeouts, and Arozarena is hardly the only one in this class. He managed to reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases for the fourth consecutive season, but when his BABIP normalized, the effect was clear. In addition, for most Mariners, hitting half the time in Seattle's T-Mobile Park has become a problem. I pondered an entire Mariners outfield section here, but I still believe in young Julio Rodriguez, and find it hard to believe anyone still needs to be warned away from Victor Robles.
Many of the hitters that hurt fantasy managers in batting average just aren't worth it at their ADP, and Arozarena remains too popular. We overlook a bad batting average when Blue Jays OF Anthony Santander blasts 44 home runs. We can't with Arozarena or other outfielders such as the Blue Jays' George Springer, Adolis Garcia of the Rangers and Baltimore's Cedric Mullins. Oh, and what are you doing investing in Kris Bryant of the Colorado Rockies? Again, c'mon!